Thoughts on Championship Weekend:
Bengals vs. Chiefs:
- I’m very surprised that the Bengals have made it this far. It’s almost impossible to win at a high level with this poor of an offensive line. Joe Burrow was sacked 9 times last week and was under pressure all night, yet he still pulled it out in the end. I think it’s too much to ask for him to win another road game at Arrowhead Stadium where Patrick Mahomes has only lost once in the playoffs in 9 tries and that was against the greatest player of all time and it took overtime. With all that said, I think -7 feels like too high of a spread for me. I don’t like either side on the spread, but I love this game from a Draftkings perspective. I’m using the dynamic stack of Mahomes/Kelce/Hill/+ Chiefs defense in every lineup that I play.
49ers vs. Rams:
- I expect this to be a defensive battle/ heavy running game. I’m not convinced that either coach trusts their quarterback and would feel more comfortable running the ball and playing defense. With that said, I think the better play is San Francisco at +3.5. They’ve had great success against the Rams as of late, and I think they may be better equipped to handle a low scoring, run heavy game flow. My only concern from a 49ers standpoint is the health of Deebo Samuel. No one can break a game open like him, but he looked to be walking with a significant limp towards the end of last week’s game. I’d monitor his status before placing any action on Niners.
Prop Bets:
Tyler Higbee Over 41.5 receiving yards: I think Higbee’s receiving yardage totals are set pretty low. He has become an integral part of the Rams offense since week 13, and has averaged just under 7 targets per game. During that span he’s also averaged 51.2 yards per game, and has been held under 41.5 yards just once in the last 6 games. He has also been on the field for about 95% of offensive snaps, which makes him a great option to exceed that total. At $3,700 on Draftkings he’s also a bargain and will likely serve as the flex spot in the majority of my lineups.
Most Receiving Yards on Sunday:
I’m splitting this bet between Tyreek Hill (+600) and Travis Kelce (+650). Mahomes has rightfully leaned on his two favorite targets in his playoff career and it has paid dividends. Hill has exceeded 100+ yards in 4 of his last 6 playoff games, and this includes explosions of 172 and 150 yards. Kelce has been a model of consistency in the playoffs going for 109, 118, 133, 108, and 96 in his last 5 games.
Cooper Kupp and Jamarr Chase are certainly viable threats to be the highest, but I think they both face mitigating factors. For Chase, I think there is obviously going to be a priority from the Chiefs defense to make someone else beat them. After going for 266 yards in their last matchup, I find it impossible to believe that he won’t be doubled on almost every play of the evening. Kupp has shown that he is the best receiver in the league and deserves to be the highest price on the board. However, as I mentioned above, I think his opportunities/targets could be limited by the high amounts of rushing attempts from both teams. I expect both the Rams and 49ers defenses to control this game.
Best of Luck Everyone!
