“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 37-31 ATS (54.41%) in 2021**
Cincinnati @ Tennessee -3.5: I think the well-rested Titans are the most forgotten about team that’s left in the playoffs. For much of the season, Tennessee has won without 2-3 of their best offensive players and a wide variety of defensive players. This week, the Titans should return their roster to full strength and be the power house that they were earlier in the season when they defeated the Colts (twice), Bills, Chiefs, Rams, and Saints. No team has a better resume of victories than the Titans, and I think they will likely be overlooked by the betting public.
In this matchup specifically, I think the Bengals offensive line will have major problems keeping Joe Burrow upright. Teams that can bring pressure to the quarterback have given the Bengals fits all year long. Here is how Burrow performed in 4 games where he faced intense pressure:
|
Opponent |
Result |
Sacks Allowed |
Pressure % |
QB Rating |
|
Chicago |
L 17-20 |
5.00 |
31.40% |
66.20 |
|
Cleveland |
L 16-41 |
5.00 |
33.30% |
69.00 |
|
LA Chargers |
L 22-41 |
6.00 |
36.20% |
70.80 |
|
San Francisco |
L 23-26 |
5.00 |
20.00% |
125.60 |
In 3 of the 4 games, Burrow finished with a QB rating below 71, and all 4 were losses. I think when the Titans have their full arsenal of pass rushers, they have as good as a front seven as anyone. The combination of Bud Dupree and Harold Landry on the edge, with Jeffrey Simmons on the interior has been a matchup nightmare for offenses. Here is how the front seven has performed in some of the key victories that I outlined at the top of the article:
|
Opposing QB |
Pressure % |
|
Josh Allen |
26.00% |
|
Carson Wentz |
38.50% |
|
Carson Wentz |
20.80% |
|
Matthew Stafford |
21.80% |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
31.80% |
I think Cincinnati had the benefit of beating up on an average Raiders team that was just happy to be in the playoffs. This week is a much different test against an experienced playoff team with an excellent head coach. Ryan Tannehill should finally have Julio Jones, AJ Brown, and Derrick Henry all on the field together this week. This has been a rare occurrence for this team, but they’ve all been healthy together, the offense is much more explosive. Of all the defenses left in the playoffs, I think the Bengals have the worst of the 8. I think the Titans are the best bet on the board this week.
LA Rams +3 @ Tampa Bay: In Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay tenure, there’s been two teams that have owned him. While it’s well documented that the Saints have gotten inside Brady’s head, I think the Rams maybe even more equipped to slow down the Bucs.
Tampa has suffered two key injuries on the offensive line. One of the league’s best tackles in Tristen Wirfs and their center Ryan Jensen both left the game against the Eagles last week. I’d have to question their effectiveness even if they are able to suit up on Sunday. With Von Miller, Leonard Floyd, and Aaron Donald looming on the Rams defensive front, I think the Bucs are going to have major problems moving the ball. I also think Jalen Ramsey has the perfect frame to slow down Mike Evans. Evans has had a ton of problems against bigger corners like Marshon Lattimore, and I think Ramsey should have the edge on the outside.
Offensively, the Rams need to force feed Cooper Kupp, and keep Matthew Stafford under control. I think they need to avoid asking him to do much. I think the Rams can win this game by minimizing offensive mistakes and leaning on the better defense that I believe they have.
Prop Bet of the Week:
Deebo Samuel Anytime TD Scorer (-105): Samuel has scored a TD in 7 of his last 8 games either rushing or receiving. I’ll take those odds all day.
Under Mike Evans Receiving Yards: This number is currently at 70.5. I think Ramsey follows him all day and should keep him under. I don’t think Brady will have enough time to get him going down field.
Draftkings Core Group: I’m loading Kupp, Singletary, McKinnon, and Titans Defense into just about every lineup I’m playing. (However, keep an eye on Edwards-Helaire’s situation, and adjust McKinnon if necessary). Giovanni Bernard may be the guy I target depending on news from Leonard Fournette as well. I think Bernard may be the beneficiary of a lot of receptions if Brady is forced to throw quickly.
-I am mixing in stacks of Tannehill/AJ Brown, Allen/Davis or Allen/Knox, and varieties of Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. Favorite stack is probably Tannehill/AJ.
-Players I am fading: Joe Burrow, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Mike Evans
Random Thoughts:
- Buffalo/KC is the game of the week. I think that I lean slightly on KC, but I can definitely see it going either way. I think the KC defense that the Bills saw at the beginning of the season is far different than it is now.
- I’m leaning on San Francisco at +5.5. I think they are simply too tough/too physical to get that many points. I think it’s probably a FG game in either direction. However, I would keep an eye on the status of Fred Warner and Nick Bosa. Both of these guys really make the defense run for the Niners. If either one is out, I’d probably avoid the game.
Best of Luck Everyone!
