Overall Game Thoughts:
I’ll sound like a broken record at this point, but I think the Bengals offensive line will finally catch up with them this week. I believe that the weaknesses, especially on the interior, will lead to huge problems against what is likely the best defensive line in the NFL. I think there are a lot of similarities between last year’s game and this year’s matchup. Last season, you had Kansas City, who came in with a high powered offense, but were completely overwhelmed by Tampa’s defensive front due to key injuries on their offensive line. Patrick Mahomes was under fire all night, and the Chiefs never stood a chance. I think a similar situation could develop as the Bengals have yet to see a defense with this type of power and explosiveness in the front seven. In my opinion, Tennessee only presented a fraction of the talent and athleticism that the Rams will showcase on Sunday.
With that said, I still am not crazy about betting the Rams at over 4 points. Matthew Stafford’s carelessness with the ball continues to pop up game after game. He threw a redzone interception in the championship game, and he tried to throw another one during one of the most critical points in the 4th quarter. So rather than bet the line that I don’t particularly care for, I have targeted a few prop bets that I think should succeed given the game flow that I expect.
Prop Bets: (Odds per Draftkings Sportsbook)
Cooper Kupp + Ja’marr Chase over 199.5 Receiving Yards (+105): This is one of my favorites on the board. I think by combining them together, you’ll get good protection if one is to have a monster game of 150+ receiving yards. Both receivers have shown all year that they are more than capable of exploding for a huge game, so why pin yourself down by choosing one? Since the playoffs have started, both quarterbacks have continued to rely on their best receivers. Chase has seen 27 targets during the playoffs (avg. of 9 per game) and Kupp has been targeted 32 times (avg. of over 10 per game). There will be no shortage of opportunities for both players, and I love that this bet remains one of the few props that is still in plus money.
MVP Bets:
Cooper Kupp (+600): Kupp has been the definition of dependable this season. He’s simply a reception machine, and he’s one of the toughest players to bring down after the catch. I think Kupp is a better option than Stafford at +100, as I remain uneasy about his costly mistakes and I don’t think his +100 price tag reflects that risk. If the Rams are able to pull out a victory, Kupp will likely be a driving force.
Aaron Donald (+1600): Donald is my other choice at MVP. This number opened up close to 30/1, but it has been noticeably bet down. Donald, who has been a long time favorite of NFL writers, could be a potential winner in a low scoring type game. The voters have shown in the past that they are more than happy to vote for him for defensive player of the year even in seasons where he has lacked production. I think it’s likely that he could be the default choice if both offenses struggle. Given the weaknesses on the Bengals interior, I can definitely see a scenario where he can accumulate multiple sacks or force a turnover. With AD as the consensus sentimental pick, I still think it is worth making a small bet at 16/1.
Joe Mixon Under 30.5 Rushing Yards 1st Half (+105): The Rams defense has been excellent against the run. For the whole season, they’ve allowed just 3.9 yards per rush. Last week, they completely shut down the 49ers who have a much better offensive line/running scheme (just 50 total rushing yards for the whole game). I think the Bengals will likely be under fire up front, and will have problems getting anything established running. I’ve chosen to target just the 1st half, as this bet remains at plus money. The under on his yardage for the whole game is at a much less favorable (-125).
Opening Kickoff Will NOT be a touchback (-110): I’m taking a shot on this one as there has been a lot of buzz around this pick. Supposedly, the Super Bowl Kickoff balls aren’t “broken in” like normal, and a lot of kickers have voiced their displeasure about it. In 18 of the last 20 Super Bowls, the opening kickoff has not been a touchback. One other factor here is that Matt Gay has been shaky during the playoffs, as you probably remember he was short on a field goal that was under 50 yards. I think if he’s the one that kicks off, this bet will look even better.
Random Thoughts:
- I certainly enjoyed the NFL Awards show last night! Mike Vrabel, Ja’Marr Chase, and Micah Parsons all won the future bets I suggested throughout the year. Dak Prescott came up just short, as Burrow’s late season push spoiled that.
- As for Draftkings, I am entering the Rams defense as a captain in several lineups. I have Cooper Kupp and Ja’marr Chase just about across the board as well. I am fading the quarterbacks for the most part.
Best of Luck Everyone!
