“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Philadelphia |
Denver |
(12.67) |
(3.00) |
9.67 |
Denver |
|
Kansas City |
Las Vegas |
(7.07) |
2.50 |
9.57 |
Las Vegas |
|
Buffalo |
NY Jets |
18.27 |
11.50 |
6.77 |
Buffalo |
|
Carolina |
Arizona |
(17.10) |
(10.50) |
6.60 |
Arizona |
|
Baltimore |
Miami |
1.30 |
7.50 |
6.20 |
Miami |
|
LA Rams |
San Francisco |
9.20 |
3.50 |
5.70 |
LA Rams |
|
Cleveland |
New England |
(7.20) |
(2.00) |
5.20 |
New England |
|
Seattle |
Green Bay |
0.10 |
(3.50) |
3.60 |
Seattle |
|
New Orleans |
Tennessee |
1.03 |
(2.50) |
3.53 |
New Orleans |
|
Atlanta |
Dallas |
(10.60) |
(8.00) |
2.60 |
Dallas |
|
Minnesota |
LA Chargers |
(0.60) |
(3.00) |
2.40 |
Minnesota |
|
Tampa Bay |
Washington |
11.43 |
9.50 |
1.93 |
Tampa Bay |
|
Detroit |
Pittsburgh |
(8.83) |
(8.00) |
0.83 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Jacksonville |
Indianapolis |
(10.60) |
(10.00) |
0.60 |
Indianapolis |
The Week 10 Money Zone picks are LA Rams, New England, Seattle, New Orleans, Dallas, & Minnesota.
**2021 Money Zone Record is 31-34 ATS**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 19-19 ATS in 2021**
Cleveland @ New England -2: I think the Patriots have solid value again this week as a slight favorite at home against a Cleveland team and system that they have had success against in the past. I point mainly to the success that Bill Belichick had when he coached against Kevin Stefanski’s offensive scheme as a coordinator in Minnesota. At the time, the Vikings were led by Kirk Cousins who ran a high volume running offense mixed with a play-action passing game that mirrors Cleveland’s offensive design today. The Patriot defense was not fooled by this approach, and they retain lots of players that enjoyed that success and also add some explosive pass rushers in Matt Judon and Christian Barmore who have really come on as of late. But the defensive success doesn’t stop with just the coaching. The Patriots also shut down Baker Mayfield in his last appearance at Gillette Stadium:
|
Situation |
QB Rating |
Yards / Pass Att |
TD / INT |
Result |
|
Stefanski-led Vikings 2018 |
70.40 |
4.57 |
1/2 |
L 10-24 |
|
Baker Mayfield’s Last Game at Gillette |
79.20 |
6.26 |
1/1 |
L 13-27 |
I think the past success against the coach and the quarterback is a strong indication of things to come on Sunday. In addition, it is likely that Cleveland will be without their top 2 running backs and their 3rd down back due to Covid issues. I’ve made the mistake of playing down D’Ernest Johnson in the past, but I think this time is a different scenario. The Patriots have been much better against the run as of late, and I’d be stunned if they didn’t have a better, more prepared approach than the Broncos had in that Thursday night game earlier this season.
The key for New England on offense will be getting rid of the ball quickly. Look for them to mirror the approach that they used against Tampa Bay earlier this year. Cleveland has a phenomenal run defense and pass rush, but they have weaknesses in the secondary when you avoid Denzel Ward. I’d look for a lot of short passes early and often to the running backs and the combination of Kendrick Bourne/Jakobi Meyers. The offensive line will not hold up if they don’t get rid of the ball fast.
Minnesota +3 @ LA Chargers: I like this matchup for the Vikings as they have a punishing running game. At this point, it’s well known how much the Chargers have struggled against the run. The Eagles ran the ball very successfully against LA last week as they notched 176 yards on the ground on 39 carries. They just didn’t deliver enough out of the passing game to match scores with the Chargers. I think Kirk Cousins has proven that he can be one of the most deadly QB’s when he has an effective play-action game working. I expect Dalvin Cook (or Alexander Mattison) to have a huge day on the ground, but I’d also look for Justin Jefferson to be a major factor as well when they do decide to throw. The Vikings continue to be an excellent team to bet as an underdog as they improved to 3-0 ATS with their cover over Baltimore from last week.
The Chargers continue to throw the ball more than most teams in the league as they now average 40 passing attempts per game (4th most). I think this approach will be problematic against the Vikings, as they’ve rushed the passer as well as any team in the league. At 8.63% the Vikings still have the highest sack rate % in the league, led by the likes of Danielle Hunter and the resurgence of Everson Griffen. Herbert struggled against the pressure he faced when he played the Ravens and Patriots. The offensive line has shown weaknesses at times, and I think Mike Zimmer is a creative defensive coach that could exploit that. I’m a little concerned with how Minnesota matches up with the Chargers on the outside. They don’t have the corners that can matchup with the likes of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. This game will certainly have to be won by its front seven.
The Chargers have also had problems on special teams. It looks like they are going with struggling Dustin Hopkins at kicker. It’s always scary betting on a favorite when they have major question marks in the kicking game and special teams. LA has also given up huge punt returns, and the Vikings returned a kick for a touchdown against Baltimore. I think special teams is an area to keep an eye on in this game.
Atlanta @ Dallas -8: Matt Ryan got the best of me last weekend, but I am not counting on it happening again, especially in this particular matchup. I am expecting to see a rebound performance from a Dallas team that was embarrassed by a mediocre Denver team last week… (Who would have saw that coming?!)… The Cowboys offense should benefit from facing a much softer defense in the Falcons. Although Atlanta got the win last week, they nearly blew a double digit second half lead to a Trevor Simian led offense surrounded by no name receivers.
The Falcons defense still doesn’t really do anything particularly well:
|
Passer Rating Defense |
Points Allowed per Game |
Red Zone Defense |
|
104.10 (26th) |
27.50 (28th) |
66.67% (21st) |
Dak Prescott looked rusty after missing a few weeks, but I’d expect him to have a huge day reconnecting with Cee Dee Lamb and Amari Cooper. In addition, they will also be helped by the return of Michael Gallup, another explosive threat in the receiving game. If they decide to run with Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard, they should see gaping holes in the Atlanta front. When these teams met last year, Dak threw for 450 yards at close to 10 yards per attempt. Atlanta also had a big day passing, but I think comparing last year’s Dallas defense to the 2021 iteration is like night and day. Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs continue to make eye-popping plays on a weekly basis. I think they’ll get some turnover opportunities against a Falcons offense that has mostly been quiet.
Seattle +3.5 @ Green Bay: I think Seattle will get a boost from Russell Wilson’s return. They saw what life was like under Geno Smith, and I think they’ll be energized by getting back one of the league’s most dynamic talents at quarterback. The Packers continue to be without Jaire Alexander (elite corner) and Zedarius Smith (elite pass rusher) which they desperately need to slow down Seattle when they are at full capacity. Green Bay’s defense has been impressive without their two best players, but I think this week it finally catches up with them. The combination of Metcalf/Lockett is too much for them to stop this week.
After a slow start to the season, I think the Seahawks defense has started to play better as of late. In their last 3 games, they’ve only given up an average of 14 points per game and they’ve held their opponents to a QB rating of 80.5 during that span. They’ve certainly had the benefit of playing some weaker offensive opponents, but Seattle’s defense has improved as the season has gone on the past few years. One area that they’ve been poor is covering running backs in the passing game. They simply cannot let Aaron Jones get the ball in the open field.
Lastly, I can’t ignore the Aaron Rodgers Covid drama. He has taken a lot of heat for his comments regarding his vaccination status, and I don’t think he’s played well in the past when he’s had off the field issues. In week one, he played one of the worst games of his career when the team was distracted by his comments around team personnel and how he was consulted during that process. I don’t expect him to repeat that poor of a performance, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some rust early in the game given how long he’s been forced to stay away from the facility.
Russell Wilson as a FG+ underdog is always a bargain to me.
Random Thoughts:
- I like the Lions at 8+ points. The Steelers aren’t a good enough offensive team to yield such a large spread. Detroit has played well against better opponents in the Rams, Vikings and Ravens and had a chance to win all those games. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Detroit get their first win coming off a blowout loss / bye week. The Steelers are also coming off a hard fought Monday night game that could spill into the following week.
- I’m quitting Denver while I’m ahead. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see them lay an egg this week.
- I was jumping with joy when I saw Josh Allen lose to the hopeless Jaguars. My Patriots AFC East future bet got some life! I’d be surprised to see the Jets keep it close this week.
- I think the Saints probably have some value this week. I think this week Tennessee could come back to Earth a little bit without Derrick Henry. Tannehill hasn’t shown that he can sustain the offense by himself throughout his career.
- The Raiders have been a pain for the Chiefs recently, but they don’t have the same running game/power offensive line anymore. I think the Chiefs are the bet at -2.5
- Washington is just not the same team this year. I am surprised at how quickly the defense has fallen apart. Expect the Bucs to win big.
Best of Luck Everyone!
