Mac Jones over 21.5 Completions (-130)
Who says I can’t recycle old prop bets?!
I think Mac Jones’ completions total is at a significant discount this week. I think this is primarily related to his low completion numbers over the past two weeks. Here are his stat lines from these games:
|
Opponent |
Completions |
Attempts |
Comp % |
Result |
|
LA Chargers |
18.00 |
35.00 |
51.43% |
W 27-24 |
|
Carolina |
12.00 |
18.00 |
66.67% |
W 24-6 |
As you can see with an average of just 15 completions over the past two games, the over/under is has been adjusted down. But what these numbers don’t show is how the Patriots game planned vs. each opponent. The LA Chargers own the worst rushing defense in the NFL, so it’s no surprise that the Patriots heavily relied on Damien Harris and the running game which kept Jones’ attempts and completions lower than usual. Against the Panthers, Sam Darnold was an absolute disaster. Belichick clearly planned on using a conservative offensive approach and was more than happy to run and punt so that the defense could dominate the game. Darnold continued to put the ball in harms’ way so there was no reason to air it out with Jones and the offense.
This week should be a completely different story. The Browns are a far more accomplished offense, so a more aggressive approach from the passing game will likely be necessary. Cleveland also has one of the best running defenses in the NFL, allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt (2nd). The Patriots have faced two elite run defenses in the Saints and the Bucs earlier on this year, and this was how they chose to attack them:
|
Opponent |
Rushing Def. Rank |
Completions |
Attempts |
Comp % |
|
New Orleans |
1st |
30.00 |
51.00 |
58.82% |
|
Tampa Bay |
2nd |
31.00 |
40.00 |
77.50% |
Not only do I expect New England to use the same approach that they used vs. Tampa/New Orleans, but I expect Jones to get rid of the ball even faster because of the elite pass rushers they have in Garrett and Clowney. Josh McDaniels has shown that they are more than willing to put the ball in Jones’ hands if there is no hope in the running game.
I think Brandon Bolden and JJ Taylor will see the lion’s share of snaps out of the running backs due to injury to Damien Harris. These running backs are more equipped for the receiving game than Damien Harris is. I’d also expect to see some hurry up offense which can slow down a great pass rush. This technique was also used vs. Tampa and it led to a significant amount of first half completions.
Another favorable factor for this bet is that Cleveland will officially be without Nick Chubb. This absence could potentially be a major blow to Cleveland’s ability to control the time of possession and limit Mac Jones’ completion opportunities.
To wrap things up here, the last time I made this bet, the over/under was set at 25.5. I think 21.5 is a steal. I think Jones gets to 30 completions on Sunday.
Good Luck!
Overall season now at 3-3
|
Week # |
Prop Bet |
Actual Numbers |
W/L |
|
4 |
Mac Jones Over 25.5 Completions (-110) |
31.00 |
W |
|
5 |
Damien Harris over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-110) |
– |
L |
|
7 |
D’Ernest Johnson under 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110) |
146.00 |
L |
|
7 |
Alvin Kamara over 29.5 yards receiving |
128.00 |
W |
|
8 |
Mike Evans under 69.5 yards receiving |
48.00 |
W |
|
9 |
Ja’marr Chase Longest Catch over 26.5 yards |
15.00 |
L |
