2021 NFL Season – Week 11 (Available)

“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.

The Week 11 Money Zone picks are New Orleans, Minnesota, New England, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Seattle, & Miami.

**2021 Money Zone Record is 35-36 ATS**

“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 22-20 ATS (52.38%) in 2021**

Indianapolis +7 @ Buffalo: I think Indianapolis has excellent value as a 7 point underdog this week. The Colts offensive line & running game have certainly regained their form over the last month or so. They’ve gotten significantly healthier than how they started off the year, and it is really starting to show. Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards are a great barometer for the Colts success:

Quentin Nelson and Eric Fisher have returned from injuries and have stabilized the offensive line, which has been one of the league’s best for the last 2+ seasons. In addition, Carson Wentz has played largely turnover free football evidenced by his 17/3 TD/INT ratio. His connection with Michael Pittman has added an explosive dimension previously not seen by this Indy offense. This Colts team is really starting to click and looks eerily similar to the Frank Reich-coached teams of the past few years. When the Colts are at the top of their game, they are an extremely difficult team to beat by multiple scores. Since 2018, they are 11-7 ATS as a road underdog (61.10%).

Buffalo got back on track by blowing out the helpless Jets. I think the Bills have benefited by playing one of the league’s easiest schedules. Only 3 of the 9 teams that they have faced currently have a winning record. I think it will take some time for them to adjust to the Colts who are one of the toughest teams in the NFL on both sides of the ball. The Bills two losses came against the Steelers and Titans, who have a similar profile in terms of toughness. While the Bills have one of the better running defenses in the league, the Titans were able to rush effectively to the tune of 146 yards. I think Jonathan Taylor should have some opportunities to break big runs.

Last year in the playoffs, these teams met at the same venue and believe it or not, the spread was the same at -7. This was a hard fought, evenly played game that was decided by a last minute field goal. The Colts were able to run for 163 yards against this defense. I think the Colts will continue to have their hands full on defense in trying to slow down Josh Allen, but overall, I’d expect a similar result to the 3 point margin of victory.

Miami -3.5 @ NY Jets: The Dolphins team that I saw beat down Baltimore last Thursday night was the team that I thought we would see for much of 2021. The creativity with relentless blitz pressure has been a calling card for Brian Flores, and this strategy flourished against Lamar Jackson. Jackson was blitzed 26 times, and looked clueless trying to navigate against the heavy pressure. Last season, when Miami faced Joe Flacco as a Jet, they blitzed him 26 times as well! Flacco handled the pressure even worse than Jackson. These were the numbers that he put up vs. the Dolphins defense in 2020:

Expect Flores to throw the kitchen sink at Flacco yet again.

Miami’s offense remains a major disappointment and is a legitimate question mark. Luckily, this week they face the league’s worst defense:

With numbers this bad, I can’t pass up an opportunity to fade them as only a 3.5 point underdog. In this spot last season, Miami was a 10 point road favorite and both teams have largely the same rosters.

Despite the Dolphins’ struggles offensively this season, Tua has managed to play effectively in 3 of his last 4 games as a starter. He has posted a 95+ QB rating, averaged over 7 yards per attempt, and was only sacked 4 times during that span. I think if he’s able to play with anywhere close to that type of efficiency, the Dolphins should be in great shape to win by more than a FG given how much Flacco and the Jets offense should struggle.

Cincinnati -1 @ Las Vegas: I’m leaning on Cincinnati in this contest between two similar AFC teams. I think the Raiders’ off field issues have finally caught up to them. It was unreasonable to expect a team to overcome losing its coach to an email scandal, losing its most explosive receiver to a heinous crime, and losing one of its starting corners over a completely separate legal issue. I think last week’s blowout loss to KC is a sign of things to come for an overwhelmed new coach and a mentally fatigued roster.

To compound these problems, I think they face the talented Bengals in a very tough spot. Cincinnati is coming off a bye after losing in a blow-out fashion to one of their division rivals. It’s well documented in the NFL that teams are more likely to perform better after a double digit loss and when they are well-rested off a bye. Both those boxes are checked off for Cincinnati this week, with the Raiders playing on a shorter window of rest after the Sunday night game.

On the field, I think you’re looking at two similar offenses. Both have excelled in the down-field passing game, ranking at the top of the league in explosive plays and yards per pass attempt. However, I think the Bengals have the upper hand at quarterback and the more dynamic receiving threat in Ja’Marr Chase. Neither team has run the ball particularly well, and both teams have below average offensive lines. I would however give the nod to the Bengals front seven. I think it is a unit that can generate pressure from multiple sources, while the Raiders rely on one player (Maxx Crosby). I think Zach Taylor and company has had additional time to prep for Crosby and should have a game plan that focuses on sending additional blockers his way. The Raiders have also had a lot of problems defending tight ends. They rank 31^st in the NFL in total yards and catches allowed to tight ends. Look for CJ Uzomah to have a big impact on Sunday like he did vs. Baltimore when he went off for 91 yards and two scores. If the Bengals are able to keep Burrow upright, they should be in line to score a lot of points on Sunday.

New Orleans +2 @ Philadelphia: I’m a little surprised to see New Orleans as an underdog again this week. I think they have a favorable matchup against the Eagles as the Saints are the best team against the run in the NFL at just 3.1 yards allowed per rush and 73 yards total per game. Philadelphia runs the ball more than most teams in the league at 29 attempts per game (9^th) and to me is their most viable source of offense. I certainly think that Dennis Allen (defensive co. of New Orleans) will devise an effective plan to shut down Jalen Hurts. I think when the running game is taken away from Hurts, he hasn’t been able to remain effective as a passer. Here are his numbers from 3 games this season in which the Eagles were held to 100 rushing yards or less:

It’s extremely difficult to win games in today’s NFL posting QB ratings below 90. They were able to defeat the Panthers with blocked punts and defensive TD’s, but were outmatched in the other two games.

The Saints offense has sputtered the last two games, but the likely return of Alvin Kamara should give Trevor Simian a huge sigh of relief. The Saints lost their last two games by a combined total of 4 points. I think this is a must win game to remain in charge of the NFC wildcard picture and I have far more confidence in Sean Payton, the far-more accomplished coach, and the defensive talent that remains in the Saints’ favor.

Random Thoughts:

• I think KC is officially back. That looked like the team we all thought that we would see this season. I think the defense is back as well as they are forcing turnovers and making big plays. I like them over Dallas this weekend at -2.5
• The Patriots continue to roll. However, I don’t love them as a full 7 point favorite on the road on a Thursday night.
• I would lean Chargers this week. They are vulnerable against the run, but Pittsburgh’s depleted offensive line can’t seem to run on anyone. I would wait to see if you can get around -4.
• Minnesota & Seattle are two interesting Money Zone home underdogs that deserve a look. Kyler Murray should be rusty making his return this week, and I wouldn’t count on Seattle laying two eggs in consecutive weeks with Russell Wilson back in action. Minnesota continues to be a tough out, and I think Green Bay loses a dimension on offense without Aaron Jones.
• It was cool to see Cam Newton get TD’s on two plays last week… However, I think Ron Rivera should know all of his bad habits and be able to slow him down if he indeed starts.
• Someone called Tim Boyle is starting QB for the Lions this weekend? I suppose he can’t be much worse than Jared Goff….
• I finally thought I had the Money Zone back over .500 for the season, but Matthew Stafford had to go ahead and lay a Monday Night egg…. Picks of the week however, dialed in a second consecutive 3-1 week!

Best of Luck Everyone!