“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
LA Chargers |
Denver |
(5.43) |
3.00 |
8.43 |
Denver |
|
Chicago |
Detroit |
(4.17) |
3.50 |
7.67 |
Detroit |
|
NY Jets |
Houston |
(9.37) |
(2.50) |
6.87 |
Houston |
|
Seattle |
Washington |
4.90 |
(1.00) |
5.90 |
Seattle |
|
Philadelphia |
NY Giants |
(2.37) |
3.50 |
5.87 |
NY Giants |
|
Carolina |
Miami |
(4.23) |
1.50 |
5.73 |
Miami |
|
Pittsburgh |
Cincinnati |
(9.60) |
(4.50) |
5.10 |
Cincinnati |
|
Minnesota |
San Francisco |
1.10 |
(3.00) |
4.10 |
Minnesota |
|
Tennessee |
New England |
(2.83) |
(6.00) |
3.17 |
Tennessee |
|
Tampa Bay |
Indianapolis |
5.33 |
2.50 |
2.83 |
Tampa Bay |
|
Atlanta |
Jacksonville |
(1.77) |
1.00 |
2.77 |
Jacksonville |
|
Las Vegas |
Dallas |
(9.10) |
(7.50) |
1.60 |
Dallas |
|
LA Rams |
Green Bay |
(2.00) |
(1.00) |
1.00 |
Green Bay |
|
Cleveland |
Baltimore |
(3.10) |
(4.00) |
0.90 |
Cleveland |
|
Buffalo |
New Orleans |
5.37 |
4.50 |
0.87 |
Buffalo |
The Week 12 Money Zone picks are Seattle, NY Giants, Miami, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, & Jacksonville.
**2021 Money Zone Record is 40-38 (51.28%) ATS**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 25-21 ATS (54.35%) in 2021**
Atlanta @ Jacksonville +1: I have historically taken pride in sifting through the real garbage games in the NFL to deliver valuable picks against the spread. I think this is certainly a game that fits that criteria. Both Atlanta and Jacksonville have put together some of the uglier performances that we have seen throughout the league, but I think Jacksonville will come out on top this week.
Looking hard at all phases of the game for both teams, I think only Jacksonville can point to an area of the game that they have been consistently strong in 2021. The Jaguars should dominate the run game on Sunday against an underwhelming Atlanta front seven. At 5 yards per carry (4th in NFL), Jacksonville has been very effective when they’ve had the opportunity to run. Because they have been behind in so many games, they have not had the volume of rushing attempts that they would hope for. On average, Atlanta has allowed 29 rushing attempts per game which is 27th in the NFL, and they are 25th in total rushing yards allowed. I think James Robinson is in line for a monster game, but I also believe that Trevor Lawrence will offer a ton of value as a runner as well.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons have had major problems moving the ball since they lost Calvin Ridley. In 3 of the last 4 games, Matt Ryan has failed to crack 200 yards passing, has posted a QB rating below 70, and the offense has scored below 14 points. Sacks are starting to pile up for this depleted offensive line as well. In the last 4 games Atlanta’s sack % has ballooned up to 10.38%. While Jacksonville’s defense has had major weaknesses, they have shown on occasion that they can pressure the quarterback and they have played far better at home. They rank 9th in the NFL in home sack %, and completely shut down one of the league’s best offenses in their victory over Buffalo. I think Josh Allen should be a major factor rushing the passer this week.
I think overall you have two teams that are at completely different stages. Jacksonville has their QB of the future and they will do their best to gain some momentum and build up his confidence down the stretch. I think the Falcons have seen their season slip away and are playing with a banged-up, old quarterback who has lost faith in the operation. I am certainly fading this Atlanta team as a road favorite.
Tampa Bay -2.5 @ Indianapolis: Indy delivered on what looks to be one of the best picks of the year last week, but I’m quickly jumping ship. I think this matchup is a completely different story for the Colts. The Colts used their imposing offensive line to push around the Bills defense. I think this is probably the one team that this strategy will not work on. Teams that have success against the Bucs typically play a more spread-style offense in order to get rid of the ball quickly, and attack their weaknesses at corner. I don’t think the Colts have the precision passing game to make this strategy work. The Colts high-volume running attack will be a lost cause going against a heavy defensive line and two of the most athletic linebackers that the NFL has to offer in Devin White and Lavante David. I have no faith in Carson Wentz to avoid the costly mistakes in this game. I think he’ll face significant pressure and I believe will commit turnovers.
Tampa’s offense looks like it has returned to form. With all the weapons they have in the passing game now mostly back at full-health, I think they have a great opportunity to light up the scoreboard on Sunday. Tampa’s offensive line looks great again, and this offense is elite when he’s afforded the time to dissect defenses. The Colts defense ranks just 22nd in the NFL in defensive passer rating at 95.8, and they also rank 22nd in yards allowed per attempt at 7.1. The downfield passing game should be a full go for Gronk and the explosive wide receivers. The Colts have been one of the worst teams in the NFL defending tight ends, giving up the 3rd most yardage in that category. This should definitely be an area where Brady looks to attack.
Philadelphia @ NY Giants +3.5: I think this is a good spot to pick up some value on an NFC East rivalry game. Philadelphia is coming in hot off of a blowout against a Saints team that was decimated with key injuries, while the Giants come off a rout by the defending Superbowl champs. Last season, the Giants covered as underdogs in both matchups with Philly and won the last meeting in week 10, by 10 points outright. In both games, the Giants were able to run the ball for over 150 yards. I think this could be an excellent opportunity for New York to get back to their running game with Saquan Barkley back in the lineup.
I think overall, I see a lot of similarities between these two teams. On paper, I think they are close to being equal. Here is how they stack up in some of the major categories:
|
Team |
Off Passer Rating |
Def. Passer Rating |
Yards / Play |
Yards / Play Allowed |
|
Philadelphia |
90.30 (20th) |
99.20 (26th) |
5.70 (16th) |
5.40 (12th) |
|
NY Giants |
82.80 (26th) |
92.10 (14th) |
5.20 (24th) |
5.50 (17th) |
You could probably give a slight nod to Philadelphia, but I see value in the Giants at a FG+ because of their familiarity with one another and the Eagles inability to pass the ball consistently. I continue to believe that will trip them up especially as a road favorite vs. a division rival.
Jalen Hurts has yet to make a start vs. the Giants. I think this Giants defense has held up well against mobile quarterbacks so far this year. Here is how some of them have played:
|
Mobile Quarterback |
QB Rating |
Rushing Yards |
Yards / Att |
Sacks |
|
Sam Darnold |
57.40 |
– |
4.48 |
3.00 |
|
PJ Walker |
39.60 |
13.00 |
2.36 |
3.00 |
|
Patrick Mahomes |
74.60 |
10.00 |
5.73 |
2.00 |
I think this defense is much better than it showed on Monday night against Tampa. Jalen Hurts simply hasn’t shown that he can distribute the ball around anywhere close to the level of Tom Brady.
Tennessee +6 @ New England: Given my significant investment that I have in the Patriots to win the AFC East, there’s probably no one happier to see how far the Patriots have come since their loss to Dallas. However, my job here is to analyze each game and give an objective pick. I think the Titans have significant value at +6. The Patriots have played great over the last month, but by are no means a perfect team. I think the Patriots defense hasn’t really been tested by a physical running team in quite awhile. Cleveland showed that they could run on New England, but decided to completely abandon the running game once they got down by a touchdown. I don’t think you’ll see that from Mike Vrabel who has shown time and again that he’s not afraid of Bill Belichick evidenced by his 2-0 record (including a playoff win in 2019). The Titans have a big, physical offensive line that could potentially give the Patriots problems regardless of who they decide to hand the ball off to. I think as long as they remain committed to the run, they should be able to keep this game close.
On the defensive side for Tennessee, there’s a lot to like in this matchup. Jeffrey Simmons and Harold Landry have been excellent generating pressure both on the edge and up the middle. Isiah Wynn at tackle has been a major problem for the Patriots in pass protection all season long. I’d look for Vrabel to target that area of the line with his best pass rushers. I’d also look for the defense to get creative with their blitz pressure. I think the Titans front seven led by David Evans is one of the strongest in the NFL. I think the Patriots will have trouble consistently running against them. The weaknesses for the Titans defense are on the outside at corner, and I’m not sure the Patriots receivers are talented enough to call it a true advantage.
But most importantly, the Titans have shown over the past few seasons, that they are a great bet as a significant underdog. I’ve outlined some of the last few scenarios where they were underdogs by more than a FG and here is how they performed:
|
Opponent |
Spread (all as Underdog) |
Result |
|
LA Rams |
7.5 |
W 28-16 |
|
Kansas City |
4 |
W 27-3 |
|
Buffalo |
6 |
W 34-31 |
|
Seattle |
6.5 |
W 33-30 |
These are all just this year. You could also go back to 2019 when they beat New England and Baltimore on the road as heavy underdogs. I think this attitude definitely flows down from the head coach who carried the same “nobody believes in you!” mantra when he was a player. This is just not a team I’m looking to fade as a 6 point underdog with an 8-3 overall record.
Random Thoughts:
- 3 straight 3-1 weeks against the spread for the picks of the week… let’s keep that going!
- Dallas was on the edge for me, I really wanted to pick them, but at 7.5 I think that was asking a little too much.
- However, Thanksgiving doesn’t feel the same without a Turkey Day Parlay: I’d go Detroit +3, Dallas -7.5, and NO +5.5.
- I’m really starting to see some Draftkings success when aligning lineups with the picks of the week. I’d look to play Brady paired with Gronk/Godwin, and I’m including James Robinson in all my lineups. I’d fade Jonathan Taylor this week.
- Minnesota is probably in a tough spot this week. They have problems with the run, and San Francisco has certainly turned up the heat on their running game as of late. I’d be careful on that one.
- Cincinnati was close to being a pick of the week, but I just have trouble fading Pittsburgh as that significant of an underdog. There are also a lot of unknowns around their key defensive players. But overall, I think the Bengals have become the team to beat in the AFC North.
- Happy Thanksgiving!
Best of Luck Everyone!
