“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Denver |
Kansas City |
1.60 |
(10.00) |
11.60 |
Denver |
|
Indianapolis |
Houston |
(0.10) |
8.50 |
8.60 |
Houston |
|
San Francisco |
Seattle |
(4.63) |
3.50 |
8.13 |
Seattle |
|
Baltimore |
Pittsburgh |
(1.43) |
4.50 |
5.93 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Arizona |
Chicago |
12.97 |
7.50 |
5.47 |
Arizona |
|
Washington |
Las Vegas |
(7.73) |
(2.50) |
5.23 |
Las Vegas |
|
Jacksonville |
LA Rams |
(17.47) |
(12.50) |
4.97 |
LA Rams |
|
Philadelphia |
NY Jets |
2.97 |
6.50 |
3.53 |
NY Jets |
|
LA Chargers |
Cincinnati |
(6.00) |
(3.00) |
3.00 |
Cincinnati |
|
Dallas |
New Orleans |
1.53 |
4.50 |
2.97 |
New Orleans |
|
NY Giants |
Miami |
(6.57) |
(5.00) |
1.57 |
Miami |
|
New England |
Buffalo |
(4.03) |
(2.50) |
1.53 |
Buffalo |
|
Tampa Bay |
Atlanta |
9.60 |
11.00 |
1.40 |
Atlanta |
|
Minnesota |
Detroit |
6.50 |
7.00 |
0.50 |
Detroit |
The Week 13 Money Zone picks are Pittsburgh, Arizona, Las Vegas, LA Rams, NY Jets, Cincinnati, & New Orleans.
**2021 Money Zone Record is 44-42 (51.16%) ATS**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 27-23 ATS (54.00%) in 2021**
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh +4.5: I have mainly faded the Steelers all season, but I think there’s some excellent potential value in Week 13. I’ve written this story many times, but I think the best play in this series is the team that is getting over a field goal. These AFC North rivals know each other so well, and typically play hard-fought, low-scoring close games that almost always favor the underdog. I think Pittsburgh has been hard to watch for the majority of 2021, but they are still a veteran laden team that should play with a lot of pride after being embarrassed by Cincinnati in a laughable fashion.
Although Baltimore sits atop the AFC with an 8-3 record, they have been far from perfect. Lamar Jackson’s turnovers continue to be a problem in 2021 as he threw 4 more interceptions in victory last week. I think this is a very difficult game on the schedule for Baltimore as they will play on short rest following a Sunday night, and are in a potential let down spot facing Pittsburgh with a rematch against Cleveland looming on the horizon. 4.5 points is a tall task to cover considering how close these games have been in recent years:
|
Season |
Baltimore |
Pittsburgh |
|
2018 |
16.00 |
23.00 |
|
2019 |
26.00 |
23.00 |
|
2019 |
28.00 |
10.00 |
|
2020 |
24.00 |
28.00 |
|
2020 |
14.00 |
19.00 |
|
Total |
108.00 |
103.00 |
Pittsburgh has won 3 of the last 5 matchups against Baltimore, and the majority of the games were decided by 1 score. Lamar Jackson has had his struggles in his two starts against Pittsburgh in his career:
|
Season |
QB Rating |
Sacks |
INT’s |
Yards / Rush |
|
2019 |
54.90 |
5.00 |
3.00 |
5.00 |
|
2020 |
65.80 |
4.00 |
2.00 |
4.06 |
Mike Tomlin’s defense has clearly had Jackson’s number as he has failed to be effective in either game. There are very few teams that have shut down Lamar in this dramatic fashion. The Steelers defense has had its problems the last few games, but I think this is a great opportunity to make a statement and keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
The Steelers should not waste any time running the ball this week. At 3.7 yards per rush, they again rank in the basement of the NFL and face a tough matchup with the Ravens front seven. However, Baltimore has given up some huge plays in the passing game, giving up 7.5 yards per pass attempt which ranks 30th in the NFL. If the offensive line can pick up the many blitzes that will likely come, Diontae Johnson or Chase Claypool should be free to make some noise in this game. Najee Harris should also remain a weapon in the passing game.
Since 2019, Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS as a home underdog. Don’t overthink it, take the Steelers this week.
Washington @ Las Vegas -2.5: Washington is coming into this game hot, but I think the Raiders matchup better against the Football Team. The Raiders have had a prolific air attack when Derek Carr has had ample time to throw. I think the losses of Chase Young and Montez Sweat on the edge have really hurt Washington’s pass rush. Washington ranks just 25th in the NFL with a 5.28% sack percentage and this has led to huge passing plays down the field as they allow just under 11 yards per reception. I don’t have any confidence that the Football Team’s secondary can slow down the Vegas offense.
Desean Jackson looks to have filled the speed element the Raiders were looking for in their loss of Henry Ruggs. I think the downfield option that he provides is a great addition to Hunter Renfrow’s abilities in the short passing game. Derek Carr is a very capable quarterback when he’s not under pressure. Carr has also been excellent when blitzed by the opposition, and I think Ron Rivera will have no choice but to send extra rushers given their injuries on the defensive line. Washington blitzes at a 32% rate which is the 5th highest in the NFL. Both the Dolphins and Ravens failed to have success against Derek Carr as they blitzed him 22 and 17 times and gave up 33 and 31 points to the Raiders respectively. In the two games against Baltimore and Miami, Carr threw for 800+ yards combined. I think the Raiders passing game should put up some big numbers this week as well. Washington has posted the NFL’s second worst defensive passer rating at 106.1.
Vegas will have its hands full in the running game on defense. Washington has gotten back to a physical rushing attack which has led to some recent success. However, they’ve sustained some injuries to key offensive lineman during the Monday night game against Seattle, and JD McKissic left the game with a head/neck injury. I think if the Raiders can establish an early lead, Washington will have no choice but to throw more with Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke has already thrown 10 INT’s so far this season. Washington doesn’t want to get into a shootout with Vegas.
Lastly, I think there is a favorable rest schedule for the Raiders. Having played on Thanksgiving, Las Vegas will get a few days of extra rest, while Washington will have to fly across country after playing on a Monday Night. I think that is certainly a disadvantage for Washington.
Dallas @ New Orleans +4.5: It’s hard to back the Saints after watching that debacle on Thanksgiving evening against the Bills. However, you should expect to see a completely different looking roster that takes the field on Thursday night. Both Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are practicing and are expected to return. It also appears that the Trevor Simian era is finally being put to rest, as Taysom Hill is finally getting starters reps at practice and by all accounts is getting the start on Thursday. It’s still up in the air on whether or not they will get their all-pro tackle in Ryan Ramczyk back, but I think they’ve finally got some explosiveness back in the offense.
Dallas, on the other hand, is having major issues with Covid in its coaching staff. Mike McCarthy is out and several of the team’s assistants will also miss the game on Thursday. I think it’s hard enough to play a Thursday night game under normal circumstances, so I think the loss of coaches will only make things even more difficult.
I’ve been disappointed with the Saints defense over the last month. They haven’t played with the same pressure and intensity. This week, however, I think they get a matchup with a familiar team and quarterback that they have succeeded against in the past. Prescott faced the Saints in both 2018 and 2019 and put up just 13 points and 10 points in both of those matchups. He was also sacked 8 times combined in the two matchups. During that span, both of these teams have retained a lot of the same personnel, so I think it is a relevant comparison. The Saints also did a phenomenal job containing Zeke Elliott in both of those games. The Cowboys rushed for a total of just 144 yards on 51 carries in the two games (only 2.8 yards / carry).
I think this matchup also shows some favorable trends. New Orleans remains one of the best underdog teams to play going 12-4 (75%) ATS since 2018, while Dallas is just 16-20 (44.4%) ATS as a favorite during that same span. Again, because I think a lot of the personnel/coaching has remained the same over the last few years, I think these numbers do tell a relevant story.
Jacksonville @ LA Rams -12.5: After looking like the best team in the NFL for the first half of the season, the Rams had an awful month of November. Matthew Stafford has had 3 straight games with a pick 6 in consecutive losses to the Titans, 49ers, and Packers. His once favorable outlook for MVP is apparently long gone….
Luckily this week, Stafford has a perfect opportunity to get right against an awful Jaguars team. Jacksonville ranks close to the bottom in virtually all important pass defense categories, and they sack the quarterback at the 26th ranked perecentage (5.03%). There’s clearly a mismatch in the passing game, and Cooper Kupp should be on track for a monster game. Even Odell Beckham should have favorable matchups against this outmatched secondary.
The Rams defense has played just as poorly as the offense over this 3 game stretch. Again, they should have a great opportunity to cure all as they face a Jaguars offense that gives the ball away 1.7 times per game (27th in NFL). Jacksonville also has only scored an average 15.7 points per game (31st) and at 72.7 have the 31st ranked passer rating in the NFL. As I mentioned last week, the only thing the Jaguars do reasonably well is run the ball. I don’t think this is the way to beat the Rams defense as they have allowed just 3.9 yards per carry (3rd in the NFL).
Lastly, Sean McVay’s record as a double digit favorite is impressive. He’s 2-1 so far ATS in those situations this year with a 38-11 win over the Giants and a 38-22 win over the Texans.
Random Thoughts:
- It’s rare that all of my picks are home teams this week… I think there are too many heavy road favorites in week 13.
- I’m avoiding the Patriots/Bills huge Monday Night affair, but I think it should be a great game with huge ramifications in the AFC.
- Arizona was close to being one of my picks, but I just couldn’t pull the trigger. I’m fearful that Kyler Murray will show some rust after missing so much time.
- If the Chargers get to +3.5, I would lean that way. Chargers history as underdog has always been stronger than as a favorite.
- Miami’s defense has been on a tear. I would be terrified to back Mike Glennon (assuming Daniel Jones is out) in that situation, but 5 points feels like a lot.
- It’s not every day that you see the NY Jets in the Money Zone. I’m not sure I believe in either side at that number.
- Minnesota also getting 7 points on the road against a division foe in Detroit. I don’t like Kirk Cousins in that spot either.
Best of Luck Everyone!
