“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Las Vegas |
Kansas City |
(3.00) |
(9.50) |
6.50 |
Las Vegas |
| San Francisco | Cincinnati | (4.37) | 1.50 | 5.87 | Cincinnati |
|
Pittsburgh |
Minnesota |
(8.83) |
(3.00) |
5.83 |
Minnesota |
|
Chicago |
Green Bay |
(17.30) |
(12.50) |
4.80 |
Green Bay |
|
Buffalo |
Tampa Bay |
1.27 |
(3.50) |
4.77 |
Buffalo |
|
Dallas |
Washington |
9.20 |
4.50 |
4.70 |
Dallas |
|
Seattle |
Houston |
4.33 |
7.50 |
3.17 |
Houston |
|
New Orleans |
NY Jets |
8.27 |
5.50 |
2.77 |
New Orleans |
|
Baltimore |
Cleveland |
(4.87) |
(2.50) |
2.37 |
Cleveland |
|
Jacksonville |
Tennessee |
(10.80) |
(8.50) |
2.30 |
Tennessee |
|
Atlanta |
Carolina |
(1.37) |
(2.50) |
1.13 |
Atlanta |
|
Detroit |
Denver |
(9.50) |
(8.50) |
1.00 |
Denver |
|
LA Rams |
Arizona |
(2.90) |
(2.00) |
0.90 |
Arizona |
|
NY Giants |
LA Chargers |
(9.40) |
(10.00) |
0.60 |
NY Giants |
The Week 14 Money Zone picks are Cincinnati, Minnesota, Green Bay, Buffalo, Dallas, New Orleans, Cleveland, & Tennessee.
**2021 Money Zone Record is 47-46 (50.54%) ATS**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 29-25 ATS (53.70%) in 2021**
Pittsburgh @ Minnesota -3: Much like I expected last week, Pittsburgh delivered a competitive, inspired defensive performance against their bitter rivals in Baltimore. I think now is a great time to fade them following that win. The Steelers defense has had major problems containing high-end passing teams. I’ve outlined a few of those performances in a summary below:
|
Opponent |
Def. Passer Rating Allowed |
Yards / Att Allowed |
Result |
|
Raiders |
126.20 |
10.32 |
L 26-17 |
|
Bengals |
122.90 |
9.56 |
L 24-10 |
|
Packers |
95.60 |
6.89 |
L 27-17 |
|
Chargers |
116.10 |
9.32 |
L 41-37 |
|
Bengals |
96.20 |
7.60 |
L 41-10 |
I consider each one of these opponents to be top 10 passing units, and Pittsburgh lost all 5 of these games and they were torched through the air in 4 out of the 5 matchups. The lone exception game in their embarrassing loss to Cincy when they were throttled on the ground as well.
I would not be fooled by the Steelers bounce back performance against the Ravens. Lamar Jackson has been a turnover machine over the last month, and Pittsburgh capitalized on Lamar’s mistakes in victory. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings passing game have been nothing short of spectacular so far this season. No team has found an answer to slow down Justin Jefferson, and the Steelers have not had any success slowing down elite-level receivers. Joe Haden has missed significant time at corner, and I would expect the Vikings to test him early if he is healthy enough to give it a go on Thursday.
Dallas -4.5 @ Washington: I think Dallas has a major advantage over Washington this year. The Cowboys offensive line should provide Dak Prescott with ample time to pick apart this Washington defense. I thought Las Vegas would be able to throw a ton of yardage on this secondary, but Dallas has far better weapons on the outside and a much better offensive line. Michael Gallup has returned to form, and I think he’s an incredible compliment to the likes of Cee Dee Lamb and Amari Cooper (who should now be fully healthy after his return from Covid). I remain skeptical that Washington can generate pressure without the likes of Chase Young and Montez Sweat on the edges.
Despite Washington’s recent hot streak, the Football Team has remained cold when it comes to defending the pass:
|
Def. Passer Rating |
Sack % |
Yards / Pass Attempt Allowed |
|
105.0 (31st) |
5.25% (25th) |
7.30 (28th) |
I think they’ve had the benefit of playing from ahead by effectively running the ball with Antonio Gibson and maintaining great time of possession. They have ranked 2nd in the NFL over the last month in terms of time possession, and that has mitigated the exposure to the secondary. I think Dallas is too explosive for this strategy to work. I expect Washington will have to throw in order to match scores, and Dallas has been a turnover forcing machine this season as they average just under 2 per game. Taylor Heinicke has proven to be loose with the ball this year (20th ranked in terms of INT’s thrown).
Demarcus Lawrence made his return from injury last week and immediately provided a spark for the Dallas pass rush. I think this takes some pressure off of Micah Parsons who has had to shoulder the load for pass rushing purposes. This should allow Parsons to play multiple positions on the front seven and cause chaos on all levels of the defense. He has been a dynamite player and should have his eyes on Antonio Gibson on Sunday.
Dak Prescott is 7-1 against the Football Team in his career, I think he should have continue that success on Sunday with a big performance.
Buffalo +3.5 @ Tampa Bay: While Buffalo was completely emasculated on Monday night, they should fare much better on Sunday against the Bucs. Buffalo has been completely exposed in the running game by physical teams like the Colts and the Patriots, but I think they are designed to defend the pass. They have lighter, more athletic linebackers who can excel in coverage and rush the passer on the edge. No team throws the ball more than the Bucs, as they average over 43 pass attempts per game. I think Sean McDermott will have his team fired up to play a better defensive game against a more fitting opponent with their season on the line.
I think Tampa Bay’s defense is similarly a perfect matchup for the Bills offense. Buffalo has no desire to hand off to their running backs as we witnessed on Monday. I think this philosophy mitigates Tampa’s dominant run defense. Teams have averaged a league high 40 pass attempts per game on the Bucs defense. The Bucs secondary has been an adventure all season long. They’ve been vulnerable in the short and intermediate passing game. Josh Allen has been very effective in throws underneath to Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, and of course Steffon Diggs. If Buffalo’s offensive line can hold on, the Bills should be able to throw all over Tampa.
Since Josh Allen started to emerge as a quarterback, the Bills have been a phenomenal underdog team to bet. Since 2020, the Bills are 5-2 ATS as an underdog. I think they have a ton of value over a FG against a Tampa team that is exactly the type of team they were designed to play against.
San Francisco @ Cincinnati +1.5: I think the Bengals also have some value as a home underdog this week. I think throughout the course of the season, the Bengals have been the more balanced team. The Bengals have shown that they can win on defense, win with their power running game, and they’ve had games where they’ve shredded teams through the air. I think San Francisco is a tough team on defense, but their offense is built around the running game. Cincinnati is still a top 10 team in terms of yards allowed per carry, and they have had some monster games from their front seven. When Jimmy Garoppolo has had to throw 30 times or more, the 49ers are just 1-3 this season. On the other hand, I think the Bengals are comfortable even if Burrow has to throw a lot to win.
The 49ers are hoping to have Deebo Samuel back from injury this weekend. However, he has yet to practice this week. I think the 49ers are a completely different team without his explosiveness both in the run and receiving game. I think George Kittle can be contained if there aren’t any other threats around him in in the receiving game.
Random Thoughts:
- Patriots are in control of the AFC East! I think now is a great time to take some profits and hedge a small bet on Buffalo if you joined me on that season long bet. I think this may be your best chance to do so, as I am surprisingly bullish on Buffalo vs. Tampa….. The Patriots also have a tough matchup with Indy on the road next weekend.
- I’m leaning on the Browns this weekend as well. I think Baltimore has finally hit the point of no return with their injuries. They have lost yet another key cog to their team in Marlon Humphrey. The Browns are coming off a bye and will be their second straight game against Baltimore.
- A well-rested Packers team should blast the Bears at home. I think it’s just a matter of time before Matt Nagy is relieved of his duties.
- Leaning Detroit at over a TD at Denver. Probably a huge let down game for the Lions, but I don’t think the Broncos deserve to be that significant of a favorite over anyone. The Lions have played a lot of competitive games this year as well.
- I’d lean Giants as well, but I have no confidence in the QB they will be sending out to face the Chargers. If they are able to send out a reasonable backup, the Chargers have shown that they are a great team to fade when laying a big number.
Best of Luck Everyone!
