“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
New England |
Indianapolis |
6.23 |
(2.50) |
8.73 |
New England |
|
Carolina |
Buffalo |
(19.20) |
(11.00) |
8.20 |
Buffalo |
|
Kansas City |
LA Chargers |
(5.20) |
3.00 |
8.20 |
LA Chargers |
|
Minnesota |
Chicago |
11.53 |
3.50 |
8.03 |
Minnesota |
|
Arizona |
Detroit |
7.17 |
13.50 |
6.33 |
Detroit |
|
Houston |
Jacksonville |
0.67 |
(4.00) |
4.67 |
Houston |
|
Green Bay |
Baltimore |
0.70 |
5.00 |
4.30 |
Baltimore |
|
NY Jets |
Miami |
(14.27) |
(10.00) |
4.27 |
Miami |
|
New Orleans |
Tampa Bay |
(6.67) |
(10.50) |
3.83 |
New Orleans |
|
Tennessee |
Pittsburgh |
(1.57) |
2.00 |
3.57 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Washington |
Philadelphia |
(3.17) |
(6.00) |
2.83 |
Washington |
|
Atlanta |
San Francisco |
(7.27) |
(9.50) |
2.23 |
Atlanta |
|
Las Vegas |
Cleveland |
(0.60) |
1.00 |
1.60 |
Cleveland |
|
Seattle |
LA Rams |
(5.60) |
(4.50) |
1.10 |
LA Rams |
|
Dallas |
NY Giants |
9.47 |
10.50 |
1.03 |
NY Giants |
|
Cincinnati |
Denver |
(3.50) |
(2.50) |
1.00 |
Denver |
The Week 15 Money Zone picks are Houston, Baltimore, Miami, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Washington, & Atlanta.
**2021 Money Zone Record is 52-49 (51.49%) ATS**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 31-27 ATS (53.44%) in 2021**
Green Bay @ Baltimore +5: The Ravens at +5 are my top play of the week. This of course assumes that Lamar Jackson is indeed healthy enough to play (all indications are that he will be right now). I think now is a great time to buy low on the Ravens who have been a phenomenal home underdog. Since 2019, they are 3-0 ATS in these situations. They’ve been awful over the past month, but have a ton on the line this weekend.
I think there are two areas of the game where they should have a distinct advantage. Green Bay is starting to have injuries on its offensive line build up in key areas. By the end of last week’s game, the Packers had just 1 starting offensive lineman left. It’s possible they could get David Bakhtiari back this week, but he’s been out of action since last year. I think the Packers offensive line is in for an uphill battle against a defense that blitzes more than most teams in the NFL. The Ravens have also seen major pass rush improvements from young players Tyus Bowser and Jayson Oweh. Although the Ravens have had significant injury problems of their own in the secondary, I think this is a game in which the front 7 should dominate. Aaron Rodgers has put together another MVP caliber season, but I think he can get himself in trouble when he holds the ball too long. I don’t like that strategy against this aggressive of a defense.
The Ravens should also have the upper hand running the ball on offense. The Packers have been a below average team against the run allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Devonta Freeman has been an effective runner over the last few games, and Lamar Jackson should have some pretty big running lanes to exploit on Sunday.
Lastly, Baltimore has long remained one of the best special teams units in the NFL. It’s rare to see them make costly mistakes in the kicking game. On the other hand, Green Bay has been a nightmare on special teams. Green Bay is just 67% on field goal attempts this year (31st) and rank just 22nd in net punting yards. The Ravens are top 5 in both of these categories. These things may seem like small problems, but they are very difficult to overcome when trying to cover a FG+ spread against a team that is fighting for its playoff life. I think these special teams issues could play a huge factor in field position and keeping the game close.
Washington +6 @ Philadelphia: I’m still scratching my head on why the spread is so advantageous for Philadelphia. I think on paper, both of these teams are equal in terms of talent. Strategically, I think the Football Team can matchup with the Eagles offense. I continue to say that the Eagles lack efficiency in their passing game. I have a ton of respect for their running game under Jalen Hurts, but I think they will have a difficult time running into the interior of Washington’s defense. D’aron Payne and Jonathan Allen have been excellent run defenders for Washington, and have really shut down some effective running teams. I think the Eagles don’t have a ton of weapons in the receiving game outside of Devonta Smith. Teams with high-end passing games have been the ones that hurt Washington. The Eagles do not fall into that category.
I think this will be a solid rebound spot for the Washington offense. They were embarrassed on Sunday by an athletic Dallas defense that they had no answers for. Because they got down by double digits so quickly, they were unable to pound the ball on the ground with Antonio Gibson which had been the reason why they had been such a hot team. The Eagles have had an effective run defense as well, but I think Washington needs to stick with it. When too much is asked of Taylor Heinicke, the game has gotten away from him and he’s been a turnover machine. It’s important that Ron Rivera takes a patient approach and doesn’t get too aggressive.
I think this is a close, competitive game at the end of the day between two NFC East rivals. Over the last 2 seasons, they are 2-2 against one another. In those 4 games, the combined score was 101-100 in Washington’s favor. I think this will come down to the wire again, and that should favor the 6 point underdog Football Team.
Houston +4 @ Jacksonville: This is a true “hold your nose” and pick the lesser of two awful teams. It’s hard to justify any statistical basis as to why the Jaguars can possibly be favored by more than a FG this season against anyone. Here is how their numbers stack up in some key categories:
|
Team |
Yards / Point Margin |
Passer Rating |
Def. Passer Rating |
|
Jacksonville |
-8.2 (32nd) |
69.30 (32nd) |
101.60 (30th) |
|
Houston |
-5.4 (30th) |
77.40 (28th) |
91.40 (15th) |
What Jacksonville has done to Trevor Lawrence is truly unspeakable. Coming into the year, he was looked at as a generational prospect and Urban Meyer has turned him into a disaster. While Houston has been no prize, they have at least maintained a positive turnover differential. The Jaguars are tied for the league lead in giveaways at just under 2 per game, and have the worst turnover margin in the NFL.
Davis Mills has actually had some decent outings this season. He’s had 3 performances in which he’s thrown for over 300 yards, and has posted a 100+ QB rating against both the Rams and the Patriots. Jacksonville has had its fair share of problems defending the pass, and with Mills playing for his job for next season he will have a ton to play for in this game. The Jaguars on the other hand, look to be playing out the string. Urban Meyer has certainly lost the locker room and I wouldn’t expect much from this defeated team.
Jacksonville as a FG+ favorite is an automatic fade for me.
NY Jets @ Miami -10: Zach Wilson has looked like a broken quarterback. I think he’s in for a dreadful day going against the ultimate blitz-happy defense led by Brian Flores. Miami has been on an absolute tear defensively, and I think they should force multiple turnovers against this underwhelming, confused offense. The Dolphins have made life miserable for almost every quarterback they’ve faced during their recent hot streak:
|
Quarterback |
QB Rating |
Yards / Att |
Sacks |
|
Lamar Jackson |
73.60 |
5.53 |
4.00 |
|
Joe Flacco |
101.50 |
7.46 |
2.00 |
|
Cam Newton |
5.80 |
4.38 |
1.00 |
|
PJ Walker |
40.40 |
8.70 |
4.00 |
|
Mike Glennon |
53.90 |
4.25 |
3.00 |
Wilson has failed to eclipse an 84 rating in 8 of his 9 starts as a qb this season. It’s almost impossible to play competitive football games when the efficiency at that position is that poor.
On the other hand, Tua has been excellent since he returned from his injury absence. Tua has posted 100+ QB ratings in 5 of his past 6 starts, including 4 straight which were all achieved during wins. He has played largely mistake free football and this has allowed the defense to put them in position to win. I’m also very encouraged by his accuracy. He’s not pushing the ball downfield much, but he’s making safe, accurate throws to get the ball into the hands of his speedy play-makers. He should have plenty of success against an inferior Jets defense.
I think the Dolphins roll the Jets this week as Wilson makes some costly mistakes.
Random Thoughts:
- Had some heart-breaking OT losses with Buffalo and Cincy last week. It was looking like a 7-1 Moneyzone week until they both collapsed down the stretch….
- Lots of Underdogs this week… I’m hoping they are barking loudly!
- I think this week is another good chance to bet Pittsburgh. Back at home again as an underdog, and following yet another embarrassing defensive performance. I think they should play better against a Tennessee team that doesn’t have the explosive options that it typically has.
- Covid is running rampant through the league this week…. I would hold off on making any bets until Sunday. Too many players at key positions have status’ in the air.
- The Patriots are a surprising 2.5 point underdog on the road at Indy. I’d be careful with that one. The Colts power running game / offensive line could give the Patriots fits. I’d sit it out.
- New Orleans has owned Tom Brady since he got to Tampa. He’s just 1-3 against the Saints and hasn’t played well in any of the four games. I think a 10+ point spread is a stretch.
Best of Luck Everyone!
