2021 NFL Season – Week 16 (Available)

“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.

The Week 16 Money Zone picks are Cincinnati, Tennessee, Detroit, Dallas, Arizona, Denver, & NY Jets.

**2021 Money Zone Record is 56-51 (52.34%) ATS**

“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 33-28 ATS (54.10%) in 2021**

San Francisco @ Tennessee +3.5: I think the Titans are in a solid bounce back spot this week against a hot 49ers team. The Niners have been one of the league’s hottest teams over the past month, but I think that has primarily been the factor of playing against a surplus of soft defenses. San Francisco’s imposing offensive line/rushing attack has punished weaker defensive fronts and allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to play efficient football. I think the 49ers will be in for a significant challenge as they face a physical defense and stout front seven in Tennessee. The Titans have allowed just 3.9 yards per rush this season, and they are looking to be a lot healthier on the defensive line and linebacker unit. I think Tennessee has proven that they are equipped to handle a run-heavy offensive approach as they have cruised to victory over the best running team in the NFL twice this season.

On the other hand, the 49ers were punished by that Colts physical offensive line. Tennessee is built in a similar way, and should be able to give San Francisco the same type of problems. D’Onta Foreman has been an effective power runner in Derrick Henry’s absence.

I think the key for the Titans will be to limit Ryan Tannehill’s passing attempts. The 49ers defensive line has been a problem for opposing quarterbacks once they get a lead. Mike Vrabel can’t afford to put Tannehill in obvious, long-yardage passing situations. I think a conservative game-plan can go a long way in this game, and a FG+ victory for either team should be hard to come by. I don’t have a lot of confidence in Garoppolo to lead the Niners to a victory as a favorite without a big day in the running game. Here is how San Francisco has fared, when they were unable to rush the ball effectively:

Baltimore @ Cincinnati -2.5: I think the Ravens are vulnerable this week. They emptied the tank in an effort to play a competitive game with the Packers, but ultimately came up short. The secondary remains devastated by injuries, and the Bengals have one of the most complete, talented receiving depth charts in the NFL. With the limitations that the Ravens have in the secondary, Wink Martindale no longer has the confidence to rely on his exotic blitz packages. I expect Joe Burrow to throw a ton in this game, which could mean big things for Ja’Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins.

Cincinnati’s defensive line remains a dominant force when defending the pass. They now rank 8^th in the NFL in sack percentage, and have shown effectiveness against Lamar Jackson, who is potentially still hobbled by his ankle injury. Without his second-gear speed, I think the Ravens will have trouble moving the ball against Cincinnati. Jackson was sacked 5 times in the first matchup between the two teams, and completed less than 50% of his pass attempts. On the other hand, Burrow had a career day throwing for over 400+ yards, and this was when the secondary still had Marlon Humphrey. While it’s often unlikely for a team to blow out a divisional foe two times in one year, I think Cincinnati represents a poor matchup for the outgunned, undermanned Ravens.

At just under a FG, I think the Bengals are one of the best value bets on the board.

Detroit +5.5 @ Atlanta: The Falcons are an auto-fade for me at this number. This team hasn’t changed one bit. They own one of the softest defenses in the NFL, and they can’t protect an old, immobile quarterback. It’s unjustifiable to lay 5.5 points with a defense that surrenders a 101.5 average quarterback rating and an offensive line that has no answers for any type of pass rush. The Falcons haven’t shown an ounce of toughness this season, and I have no reason to believe that they will start now in week 16.

Although the Lions hold one of the NFL’s worst win/loss records, they have shown that they are a feisty, competitive team. Despite their 2-11-1 record, they are an astonishing 9-5 against the spread (64%). As much as I laughed at Dan Campbell as a coaching prospect, I have to admit he seems to have the support of his players. Jared Goff is currently on the covid list, but it sounds like he will likely be cleared to play by Sunday. Goff has been surprisingly hot as of late. He has posted 97+ QB ratings in 3 of the last 4 games, and during that span he has a 9/2 TD/INT ratio.

For the full season, the Lions have posted better numbers in passer rating differential and yards per point margin than Atlanta. The combination of these two statistics is often the best way to gauge overall team efficiency. It’s rare to see a team as a significant underdog when they have performed favorably in both metrics:

I think Detroit should have a major advantage running the ball. Atlanta has struggled mightily to get any momentum on the ground, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. I think it’s important to maintain some ability on the ground to cover a 5.5 spread, especially when the team that is favored has such a poor defense.

I would double check Jared Goff’s status before making this play. However, if this spread grows to over 7 points, I would still bet Detroit.

Denver +1 @ Las Vegas: I like Denver as a slight underdog in this AFC West matchup. Vegas is built around its passing game, and gets virtually nothing from the run. I think this benefits Denver, as the Broncos strength lies in its secondary and defensive line. The Raiders attempt 38+ passes per game (6^th most in the NFL) and at 81.4, Denver has the 4^th lowest defensive passer rating.

I think the Raiders’ receiving weapons are far less threatening without the likes of Henry Ruggs and the injured Darren Waller. Patrick Surtain II has emerged as one of the best young corners in the league and is a more than viable option on the outside. We’ve seen the Broncos defense shut down far more explosive receivers in a statement win over the Cowboys. I think if you take away Hunter Renfrow, there isn’t a lot on the Raiders that scares you.

On the other side of the ball, I think Vegas can be hurt by the Denver running game. Javonte Williams is becoming one of the better backs in the league, and the 1-2 punch they have with Melvin Gordon is problematic for defenses. Teams haven’t been shy about running against the Raiders, as they average just under 29 attempts allowed per game (25^th ranked). Drew Lock will be getting the start for Denver. In his last start against the Raiders in 2020, he threw for over 300 yards, had a 103.6 QB rating and scored 31 points. Unfortunately, for him the Broncos defense gave up 32 points.

I think the Broncos are the more talented team and they should be in a better spot. The Raiders are returning from an off-script Monday night game and are forced to play this one on shorter rest. Denver is still in the thick of the playoff hunt and should be the more desperate team.

Random Thoughts:

• Unfortunately, it looks like Covid is still having a huge impact on rosters on a day-to-day basis. I would certainly wait until gameday to make any of these bets, as key players could be ruled out at any moment.
• Buffalo/New England’s matchup this weekend should decide the AFC East. I’ve rode the Patriots train all season, so I’m not getting off now. I think the Patriots should have the edge against Josh Allen as he will be without Cole Beasley. New England should be able to showcase a more balanced attack offensively assuming the weather is more conventional.
• Don’t look now, but New Orleans is still alive in the NFC playoff hunt. The defense is back and looking as good as ever. If they can get any input whatsoever from the offense, they should beat the Dolphins who aren’t built to stop the physical/running teams.
• I hate the Chargers as significant favorites, but I think the Texans will be due for a let down after a rare win.
• Kansas City has Kelce and Hill on the Covid list right now. I’m hearing that they still have a shot to play. If KC is at full strength, I think they roll the Steelers. Pittsburgh has been a model for inconsistency this season.
• The Jets showing up in the Money Zone is an interesting phenomenon. I almost don’t believe my eyes…..

Best of Luck Everyone!