“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Kansas City |
Cincinnati |
(4.37) |
5.00 |
9.37 |
Cincinnati |
|
Houston |
San Francisco |
(4.73) |
(13.00) |
8.27 |
Houston |
|
NY Giants |
Chicago |
0.47 |
(6.50) |
6.97 |
NY Giants |
|
Carolina |
New Orleans |
(13.07) |
(6.50) |
6.57 |
New Orleans |
|
Cleveland |
Pittsburgh |
(2.20) |
3.50 |
5.70 |
Pittsburgh |
|
LA Rams |
Baltimore |
8.03 |
3.50 |
4.53 |
LA Rams |
|
Denver |
LA Chargers |
(1.30) |
(5.00) |
3.70 |
Denver |
|
Arizona |
Dallas |
(8.50) |
(5.00) |
3.50 |
Dallas |
|
Jacksonville |
New England |
(18.97) |
(15.50) |
3.47 |
New England |
|
Detroit |
Seattle |
(3.80) |
(7.00) |
3.20 |
Detroit |
|
Atlanta |
Buffalo |
(17.20) |
(14.00) |
3.20 |
Buffalo |
|
Miami |
Tennessee |
(0.90) |
(3.00) |
2.10 |
Miami |
|
Tampa Bay |
NY Jets |
12.07 |
13.50 |
1.43 |
NY Jets |
|
Las Vegas |
Indianapolis |
(5.63) |
(7.00) |
1.37 |
Las Vegas |
|
Philadelphia |
Washington |
2.67 |
3.50 |
0.83 |
Washington |
|
Minnesota |
Green Bay |
(6.97) |
(6.50) |
0.47 |
Green Bay |
The Week 17 Money Zone picks are Pittsburgh, LA Rams, Denver, Dallas, New England, Detroit, Buffalo, & Miami.
**2021 Money Zone Record is 61-53 (53.51%) ATS**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 33-28 ATS (54.10%) in 2021**
Jacksonville @ New England -15.5: I like the Patriots to get back on track in a classic “get right” game against the worst team in the NFL. There are a number of different factors that play into this decision for me. First, I think Jacksonville is still in a state of disarray with 10+ players coming into the Covid protocols, many of them still have their status in the air. Secondly, the one strength that Jacksonville had to expose the Patriots was with James Robinson and the running game. However, he tore his achilles last week and is done for the season. I don’t think the Jaguars have any other explosive runners that could potentially hurt the Patriots. Lastly, I love fading warm weather teams when they play in the northeast in December. The Jaguars especially have nothing to play for and should be more than willing to give up if they face any adversity early in the game. A loss would lock them into the first or 2nd pick in the draft, and I don’t see a lot of reasons why they will fight this one out.
After the Patriots 7 game winning streak, they came up short against two of the toughest teams in the AFC in Indy and Buffalo. I think this was definitely a wake-up call to the Patriots who probably got a little ahead of themselves. This week should be a great chance to re-establish some confidence with the offense and run up the score. I think this is a very similar spot to week 7 when they hosted the helpless Jets after a devastating loss to Dallas that had their season in doubt. The Patriots won that game 54-13 and Mac Jones threw for 300+ yards. Jones will need a boost in confidence as he has been bad for 2 consecutive games, and this was after his 3 pass showing in the “Wind Bowl” in Buffalo. He faces a defense that has given up a 100+ def. passer rating on the season and ranks 28th in the NFL. This is the perfect team to see to regain some confidence.
I’d expect a 20 point rout for the Patriots as they build momentum for their season finale in Miami which will have major playoff ramifications.
Atlanta @ Buffalo -14: I think Buffalo should also win in a blowout fashion against a fraudulent Falcons team. When Atlanta has faced any team close to the top of the league, they have been destroyed. Here is a summary of those performances:
|
Opponent |
Result |
Margin of Loss |
|
Philadelphia |
L |
26.00 |
|
Tampa Bay |
L |
23.00 |
|
Dallas |
L |
40.00 |
|
New England |
L |
25.00 |
|
Tampa Bay |
L |
13.00 |
|
San Francisco |
L |
18.00 |
These were the 6 potential playoff teams that they have faced this year, and only 1 of these games stayed within 14 points (their second game against divisional foe in Tampa).
Buffalo has performed well as a significant favorite over the past two seasons. The lone hiccup that stands out was their inexplicable road loss to Jacksonville earlier this season. Aside from that, they have been a reliable team to bet as a double-digit favorite:
|
Opponent |
Result |
Spread |
|
Houston |
W 40 – 0 |
17.50 |
|
Miami |
W 26-11 |
14.00 |
|
NY Jets |
W 45-17 |
13.00 |
|
Carolina |
W 31-14 |
14.50 |
All these games in which they were home favorites by 10 points or more resulted in a win against the spread. I think the Bills offense will excel as they get key weapons back this week with Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis returning. The Buffalo defense remains the best in the league against the pass allowing a defensive passer rating below 70. Matt Ryan will have major issues moving the ball and the Falcons have been more than willing to throw in the towel against superior competition.
Detroit +7 @ Seattle: Detroit continues to play competitive games that result in wins against the spread. I’m baffled by the line in this game as these two teams are decisively headed in opposite directions. Seattle is clearly just playing out the string, and the Russell Wilson era looks like it is over. The Seahawks offense has been hard to watch as they continue to have major protection problems. Wilson has been sacked on over 9% of pass attempts which ranks 31st in the NFL. The Lions pass rush has been hot as of late as they have racked up 5 sacks over the last two games against Arizona and Atlanta. I think they have at least shown that they can get pressure against bad offensive lines which Seattle certainly has.
Jared Goff should return this week, and his rapport with emerging Amun-Ra St. Brown has been excellent. St. Brown has caught 35 of his 46 targets over the last 4 games and has been one of the NFL’s most effective receivers over that period. In addition, De Andre Swift should also be coming back this week and he has shown that he can be a true game breaker for the Lions. What makes him even more dangerous is his ability as a receiver. The Seahawks have given up 1,000 yards to opposing running backs this season which is the most in the NFL. The team with the next highest figure is the Jets with just 832. I think Swift presents a huge problem for Seattle that they haven’t been able to figure out this season. (I would target Swift in Draftkings lineups).
Dan Campbell, who looked like a joke early on in the season, still has his team playing hard. I don’t think you can say the same about Pete Carroll. The players are disinterested at this point in their season which has been a failure. I think laying 7 points is hard to justify.
Miami +3.5 @ Tennessee: I like Miami again at this number. I think this is a potential let-down spot for Tennessee coming off last Thursday’s huge win over the 49ers. The Dolphins’ aggressive, blitzing scheme should be problematic for Ryan Tannehill. I haven’t liked him historically against heavy pressure. I think at times he holds the ball too long. The Titans have been sacked on over 8% of drop backs which ranks 29th in the NFL. Miami has been red hot in generating pressure as they have accumulated an amazing 22 sacks in the last four games. Teams simply haven’t had an answer for the cover 0 pressure looks that Brian Flores has mastered during this win streak.
AJ Brown is a monster on the outside, but I think the offense is too 1 dimensional for the Henry-less Titans. Julio Jones has been a virtual non-factor, and I think the Dolphins can dedicate all of their resources in the secondary to containing Brown.
The Dolphins talented wide receiving corps should be in for a big day as the Titans are still very thin at corner. Tua has gotten the ball out quickly during this win streak and into the hands of the explosive Jaylen Waddle. I think Miami should focus on how the 49ers were able to get Deebo Samuel in space and utilize Waddle in a similar fashion. The Titans have a very strong front 7, but have allowed some big plays on the outside and down the field. Tennessee has surrendered over 10 yards per completion (21st in the NFL).
I prefer to bet the Titans as an underdog. They have struggled with higher expectations in the Vrabel era, as they have gone just 7-11 (38.9%) ATS as a favorite since last year. During this same span, Miami is 11-5 (68.8%) ATS as an underdog. I feel comfortable backing both of these trends this week, especially at a FG+.
Random Thoughts:
- Pittsburgh is probably my next favorite pick. This team has been all over the place, but I’d expect a better effort this week. They are a home underdog against a hated divisional rival in what is most likely Big Ben’s last home game. Good value here.
- Dallas looks like a viable Super Bowl threat. However, I hate betting teams coming off enormous blowouts. I think this is a tough play against Arizona at -5.
- I’m normally all over Baltimore as a home dog, but they just don’t have any bodies left in the secondary. I think Cooper Kupp may go for 200 yards. <<Must play in DK lineups this week.
- Trey Lance is my favorite QB in Draftkings lineups this week (assuming Garoppolo is out). The Texans should be in for a flop after they upset the Chargers a week ago.
- The Chargers remain a large favorite against this week at -6. Denver has been a solid bet in those positions this year. I didn’t have the heart to make them a pick of the week yet again, however.
Best of Luck Everyone!
