Week 18 has a lot of open questions heading into the week. Because so many teams have either clinched a playoff spot or are officially eliminated, I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into the season long numbers that generate most of the Money Zone calculations.
**2021 Money Zone Record is 63-58 (52.06%) ATS**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 34-30 ATS (53.13%) in 2021**
LA Chargers -3 @ Las Vegas: In this particular matchup, you should see a playoff level effort from both teams and I think the statistics will certainly apply in this game. This game will ultimately decide who secures the final remaining playoff seed in the AFC. I think the Chargers are the far more talented team, and I expect them to prevail against their rival Raiders. Through 16 games, I think LA has been the better team, and I think they should show it on Sunday night:
|
Team |
Off. Passer Rating |
Def. Passer Rating |
PRD |
Yards / Point Margin |
|
LA Chargers |
99.20 |
93.30 |
5.90 |
-.4 (18th) |
|
Las Vegas |
94.10 |
98.30 |
(4.20) |
-4.2 (30th) |
In Herbert’s 3 previous matchups with the Raiders he is 2-1, has posted a 100+ QB rating in all 3 matchups, and the Chargers have averaged 28 points per contest. In the matchup earlier this season, the Raiders had no answer for Austin Ekeler. He scored 2 TD’s and totaled over 150+ scrimmage yards. I think he should continue to be problematic for the pedestrian Raiders’ linebacking corps both running and receiving.
The Chargers continue to be vulnerable on the ground, but again, the Raiders running game doesn’t scare me. I don’t think they have the offensive line strength and explosiveness out of the backfield to match scores with the Chargers passing game. While the Raiders are riding in hot on a 3 game winning streak, their offense in the second half of the season has been a major disappointment. Since their 36 point performance on Thanksgiving, the Raiders have only scored an average of 16 points per game:
|
Opponent |
Total Points Scored |
|
Washington |
15.00 |
|
Kansas City |
9.00 |
|
Cleveland |
16.00 |
|
Denver |
17.00 |
|
Indianapolis |
23.00 |
|
Average |
16.00 |
This type of offensive production is not good enough to stay with LA, who should have no problems getting to 30.
Washington -7 @ NY Giants: In what is a meaningless game between two eliminated teams, I can’t help but continue to fade the miserable Giants. Since Daniel Jones has gone down, the Giants offense has been a complete disaster. In Mike Glennon’s 6 games this season, he has failed to surpass the 200 yard mark in passing yards, and his QB rating has been below 71 in all 6 games. What’s even worse is that Glennon is injured and Jake Fromm will likely be getting the start. Fromm attempted 17 passes last week for 25 yards. This yielded a 19.5 QB rating, and was good for 1.47 yards per attempt.
The Giants have lost all hope in Joe Judge and he is unraveling on a weekly basis. Washington’s defense should beat up on this pathetic excuse for an offense, as they gave Jalen Hurts and the Eagles all they could handle last week, but came up just short. I expect Taylor Heinicke to play hard as he is still fighting for his job for next season. The Giants injury report had 18 players on it as of today, and I don’t expect any of the players to fight too hard to get off of it.
New England @ Miami +6.5: This is an interesting game for the Patriots. The AFC East is likely out of reach as the Bills would take the crown if they are able to put away the hopeless Jets. Assuming the Bills take care of business in a game in which they are close to 17 point favorites, the Patriots don’t have a lot to play for. I think there’s potential for the Patriots to rest players if they aren’t fully healthy. I’m guessing that they will limit Damien Harris’ availability as they want him fully strong for the playoffs.
I think the Dolphins will want to finish the season strong as they have lots of younger players on the roster, and I believe Brian Flores will want to win against his former mentor in Bill Belichick. Flores has had the Patriots’ number during his young tenure. The Dolphins have beaten the Patriots 3 of the last 4 meetings, and in 2019, the Dolphins upset the Patriots in a similar situation with a playoff bye on the line. I don’t expect the Dolphins to just lay over in this game. I think a win could help set the tone for the 2022 season. On top of that, I think the warm, humid Miami weather could be an issue for the Patriots. New England has played all of its games in either cold weather or in a controlled dome setting since October. I think the players may need some time to adjust to the heat if the game temperature hits 80.
I think the Dolphins defense will attack Mac Jones. They love bringing pressure, and I think Jones has shown struggles with it at times this season. He took sacks early in the game against Indy and Buffalo, and that slowed his momentum during both of those key losses.
The Dolphins had a full team at practice today (Thursday) so I think it appears they will be trying to win this game.
Random Thoughts:
- Bills should mop the floor with the Jets. -16.5 feels like a lot of points, but I think Buffalo’s defense could potentially keep NY in single digits. A 31-10 type game feels within reach.
- I wouldn’t touch Cincinnati this week. The spread opened at Cincy -2.5 and has since flipped to Cleveland -6. Vegas expects the Bengals to treat this like a throw away preseason game and they’ve already ruled out Joe Burrow.
- I don’t love KC at -10.5, but I also have no clue what to expect from Denver with nothing to play for.
- I think Philadelphia could potentially play their game similar to Cincy. The Eagles had Covid issues early in the week to key players, and with them locked in as a wildcard team, I don’t see any incentive to risk injury.
- New Orleans should probably take care of Atlanta, but they will need the Rams to beat San Francisco in order for that game to matter. I’d probably lean on both favorites to win, but I’m not crazy about them covering the spreads.
- Tennessee and Indy are both laying a ton of points to Houston and Jacksonville. Again, I think you should either lay the points or avoid altogether. I don’t see any value in taking the underdogs.
- Lastly, I think there’s some decent value remaining on the season end awards. Mike Vrabel was at +300 for Coach of the Year on Draftkings last I checked. I think that’s great value considering his team has sustained a record number of injuries to starters, yet they are in line to lock up the #1 seed in the AFC. I think that’s extremely impressive. Matt Lafleur and Zac Taylor are nice stories, but I’d give the nod to Vrabel at that number.
Best of Luck Everyone!
