Since last week was a success, I’m coming back with another Prop Bet for Week 5.
Damien Harris over 9.5 Receiving Yards (Draftkings Odds -110)
Coming into this week, I thought Damien Harris would have a great opportunity to exceed his rushing yards total… However, due to injuries and Covid problems, the Patriots will be without 4 of their 5 starting offensive linemen on Sunday. This could likely be a huge problem in the passing game and the running game. But I think one area that could see a potential benefit is the screen pass game. Look for Josh McDaniels to try to counter Houston’s aggressiveness to get after a vulnerable Mac Jones with a few screen passes early on. This has been a staple in the Patriots offense, and with 4 linemen out, I’m sure that they will want to get creative and don’t want to expose Jones to more hits.
I had several reasons why I initially wanted to target Damien Harris’ prop categories against Houston. Houston remains one of the worst teams as far as possessing the ball. Houston is ranked just 30th in number of plays per game primarily because of their problems with turnovers, especially since Garrett Mills has taken over. As a result, New England should dominate time of possession, and therefore give Harris lots of opportunities. The Patriots defense has owned rookie quarterbacks over the years, and I expect that to remain the case on Sunday. I also believe that Harris will continue to see the lions’ share of snaps out of the Patriots running backs. Both JJ Taylor and Rhamondre Stevenson have fumbled in limited opportunities and that has found them riding the bench. Against Tampa, Harris received 61% of the offensive snaps and caught two passes for 30 yards. With the uncertainty on the offensive line, I think it’s very likely that Harris could see up to 4-5 targets in the passing game, and should certainly deliver over 10 yards. Houston also leads the league with 37 missed tackles. One simple check down to Harris could certainly get him over the mark.
Good Luck!
