“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Houston |
Indianapolis |
2.08 |
(9.50) |
11.58 |
Houston |
|
Arizona |
Cleveland |
3.90 |
(2.50) |
6.40 |
Arizona |
|
Cincinnati |
Detroit |
6.77 |
3.50 |
3.27 |
Cincinnati |
|
LA Rams |
NY Giants |
12.65 |
9.50 |
3.15 |
LA Rams |
|
Minnesota |
Carolina |
(1.61) |
1.50 |
3.11 |
Carolina |
|
Buffalo |
Tennessee |
8.32 |
5.50 |
2.82 |
Buffalo |
|
Green Bay |
Chicago |
7.05 |
4.50 |
2.55 |
Green Bay |
|
LA Chargers |
Baltimore |
(5.98) |
(3.50) |
2.48 |
Baltimore |
|
Dallas |
New England |
1.55 |
4.00 |
2.45 |
New England |
|
Miami |
Jacksonville |
4.81 |
3.00 |
1.81 |
Miami |
|
Kansas City |
Washington |
4.85 |
6.50 |
1.66 |
Washington |
|
Tampa Bay |
Philadelphia |
5.07 |
6.50 |
1.44 |
Philadelphia |
|
Seattle |
Pittsburgh |
(3.41) |
(4.50) |
1.09 |
Seattle |
|
Las Vegas |
Denver |
(3.49) |
(3.50) |
0.01 |
Las Vegas |
The Week 6 Money Zone picks are Cincinnati, LA Rams, Carolina, Buffalo, Green Bay, Baltimore, & New England
**2021 Money Zone Record is 16-20 ATS**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week (includes Props) are 11-11 (50.00%) ATS in 2021**
LA Rams -9.5 @ NY Giants: Every now and then I’m entitled to post a square play. I think everyone on the planet will have the Rams this week, and I happen to agree with that sentiment. The Giants have key injuries all over the field, most notably at quarterback. I don’t see how Mike Glennon can deliver an effective performance given his poor track record, his below average offensive line, and the elite players in the Rams front seven that he’s lining up against. The Rams sack numbers have been lower than usual this season, but they have still pressured quarterbacks at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL at 25.70%. While it’s certainly not all on Glennon, his teams are 0-10 since 2018 when he has seen action. He started 6 games last season and was outscored by a total of 154 to 90. In the 2 games where he was pressured on more than 20% of his pass attempts, Glennon finished with a yards per attempt of under 6, and was sacked 7 times. I just don’t see a path for a competitive football game on Sunday.
Switching over to the Rams, I have historically loved backing Sean Mcvay’s teams as large favorites. Last year, they didn’t cover against these very Giants and even lost straight up to the Jets as enormous favorites. However, with Jared Goff out of the equation, I think it’s highly unlikely you’ll see the type of mistakes that could potentially keep New York in the game. I think they return to how they performed as double-digit favorites prior to 2020 with results like below:
|
Season |
Opponent |
Spread |
Result |
ATS Result |
|
2018 |
Arizona |
-14.5 |
31-9 |
W |
|
2018 |
Lions |
-10.5 |
28-14 |
W |
|
2018 |
Arizona |
-13.5 |
34-0 |
W |
Another factor I think they have going for them is their historical success with a rest advantage over the opponent. Since Mcvay has taken over the team, they are 9-4 (69%) ATS when they are coming off additional rest days compared to their opponent. After playing the Thursday night game last week, they should benefit from some extra days off. New York, on the other hand, could be without Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, and a couple offensive linemen.
The Rams offense continues to be one of the most explosive in the league, as they average an NFL high 6.7 yards per play. The Giants continue to struggle defending the pass, and now sit at 27th in the league in passer rating allowed at 108.50. They just aren’t getting home on the pass rush and have been brutal on 3rd down ranking 29th. I like the Rams to get on top early, and force Glennon into passing situations where he will likely turn it over.
LA Chargers @ Baltimore -3: I’m taking a second shot at fading the Chargers. While Herbert has been amazing these past few weeks, I can’t overlook the problems they continue to have defending the run. Cleveland completely owned the ground game last week, and I think Baltimore will be equally as dominant. The Browns rushed for 230 yards on 35 carries, which equaled over 6.5 yards per attempt. The Ravens have an even more complex blocking scheme, and the best running quarterback that we have ever seen who is coming off a 400 yard performance throwing. I think it is a monumental hurdle to play the best two running teams in the NFL in back-to-back weeks. The physical toll it takes on the front seven is too demanding. I think the Ravens should be able to control this game through the ground and by throwing. The explosive running game paired up with the deep shots to Hollywood Brown have been extremely difficult to stop.
So far in 2021, the Ravens defense hasn’t been as stout as it typically is, but I think they draw a good matchup against the Chargers. Jimmy Smith has returned at corner for the Ravens, and I think they can use his size to situationally matchup with Mike Williams. I think they can keep Marlon Humphrey locked in on Keenan Allen who is the Chargers best weapon on 3rd downs. I still think the talent is there on defense for this Baltimore team, and I think John Harbaugh is the right coach to figure it out.
Another thing that I have noticed is that the Chargers have gotten away with a ton of 3rd and longs and have converted the 2nd most 4th downs in the NFL. While I appreciate aggressive coaching, I don’t think it is sustainable in the long run. I think the Chargers are in an extremely tough spot playing a 2nd straight physical opponent in the early window coming from the west coast.
Dallas @ New England +4: The Patriots laid a complete egg last weekend in Houston, but I think they can build some momentum due to the fact that they were able to climb out of a two score hole with 4 of their 5 starting offensive lineman missing. They should get the majority of their line back this week and have an advantage against the Dallas front seven which remains without its best pass rusher in Demarcus Lawrence, and have ranked just 28th in pressure %. I think this should finally open up some opportunities in the downfield passing game. Trevon Diggs has been phenomenal at creating turnovers this year, but I think they will use his aggressiveness against him and hit him with some double moves. He’s picking the ball off a ton, but he’s also giving up a lot of big plays too. Look for Agholor or Borne to catch some deep ones.
The New England defense was a disaster last week, but I don’t think it should come as a surprise as this was clearly a let down game after the dramatic return of Tom Brady. When the defense played to its potential against the Bucs, you saw how effective it could be. I also like the fact that Belichick and the coaching staff saw this Dallas offense in 2019 at Gillette Stadium. The conditions were rainy and poor in that matchup, but I think they got to see what worked situationally against a lot of the same personnel that remains intact. Specifically, Amare Cooper was completely shut down in this game. I’d expect to see JC Jackson bounce back from his awful performance last week, and play well against him on Sunday. The Patriots defense also kept Zeke Elliott very quiet in that matchup. He rushed 21 times for only 86 yards.
Dallas has certainly been impressive early on, but they’ve had the benefit of 3 straight home games. Dak Prescott hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire when he’s played outdoors. When he plays outside he’s only 14-12. It doesn’t appear like the weather will be an issue right now, but I think the speed of the game changes going from inside to outside, especially after 3 consecutive home games. Lastly, I think you have to look at how poorly Dallas has played as a road favorite. Since 2018, they are just 4-7 ATS as away favorites. I think we’ve seen a significant over reaction to the line in this game. When the season opened up, the look ahead line on this game was New England -1. That has swung by almost a touchdown in Dallas’ direction.
Minnesota @ Carolina +1.5: Kirk Cousins draws a very tough defense in this matchup. I certainly do not like his track record against high end defenses, which I believe Carolina is right now. They have had the benefit of playing some low ranked offenses, but they have delivered promising results so far:
|
Def. Passer Rating |
Points Allowed / Game |
Yards Allowed / Play |
Sack % |
|
82.10 (5th) |
17.40 (3rd) |
4.8 (2nd) |
9.88% (2nd) |
Cousins has folded like a lawn chair when faced with aggressive fronts and physical defenses. I did my best to analyze how he performed vs. high-end defenses over the past 3 years. I researched the highest ranked opponents that he faced in terms of points allowed per game. Here was what I came up with since 2018:
|
Year |
Opponent |
Scoring Def. Rank |
Result |
QB Rating |
Sacked |
|
2020 |
At New Orleans |
3rd |
L 33-52 |
110.90 |
2.00 |
|
2020 |
At Tampa Bay |
7th |
L 14-26 |
90.50 |
6.00 |
|
2020 |
At Indianapolis |
11th |
L 11-28 |
15.90 |
3.00 |
|
2019 |
Denver |
8th |
W 27-23 |
133.20 |
5.00 |
|
2019 |
At Chicago |
4th |
L 6-16 |
91.60 |
6.00 |
|
2018 |
Chicago |
1st |
L 10-24 |
79.40 |
4.00 |
|
2018 |
At Chicago |
1st |
L 20-25 |
76.50 |
2.00 |
|
2018 |
At New England |
6th |
L 10-24 |
70.40 |
2.00 |
|
2018 |
At Philadelphia |
8th |
W 23-21 |
109.60 |
1.00 |
The Cousins-led Vikings are just 2-7 (straight up) when facing a top 11 defense in terms of scoring. He’s had two effective performances that led to wins (at Philly and when they hosted Denver). The New Orleans game from last year was a blowout loss in which he padded some passing numbers in the 2nd half after the game was well within hand. I think the sack numbers really highlight how tight and scared he can get while in the pocket vs. these elite level defenses. Against these opponents, the Vikings have averaged only 17.1 points and have allowed 3.5 sacks per game. It’s extremely difficult to win a game under those circumstances.
When the Panthers have the ball, I think they should be able to run effectively. The key, as usual, will be for Sam Darnold to hold onto the ball and to not do anything stupid. This has been a tall task for him in the past, but the Vikings are allowing close to 5 yards per carry, which should lead to a safer game plan. I also don’t think Minnesota has anyone to matchup with DJ Moore who has had an excellent rapport with Darnold in the first few games. If they are able to get Christian McCaffery back this week, I think you’ll see the line swing back in the Panthers direction. Regardless, I like the Panthers to prevail on Sunday.
Random Thoughts:
- I don’t have the numbers to back it up, but I love Denver as a pure gut-play. I just don’t see how the Raiders could possibly play well with the Jon Gruden drama hanging over their heads. Denver is a tough enough place to play without any distractions.
- I’m surprised to see how fast Kansas City has fallen apart… However, I think you’re crazy if you are counting them out already. They’ve had defensive issues before, and I think they will get it figured out. I think now is a great time to invest in some future bets on them, if you have them available. Look to make a move on the over on win totals.
- I like Cincinnati again this week. Minnesota let me down by not blowing out Detroit last week, but I think the Burrow/Chase connection will be in for another huge day.
- We really know how to send the worst games of the week to London… Last week, Jets/Falcons, this week Dolphins/Jags. How do we expect anyone in Europe to like football by sending them that?
- Well my prop bet of the week essentially blew up the second Damien Harris fumbled in the end zone… I’ll have to try harder this week!
- Buffalo continues to look better by the week. It pains me to see Josh Allen elevate himself into the MVP discussion, but at some point I have to admit that I might have it wrong….
- Green Bay was initially going to be one of my picks of the week, but it’s feeling like a trap game. Chicago’s defense is starting to play better, and I’m not sure I can trust Green Bay’s defense with key injuries to its best playmakers.
Best of Luck Everyone!
