“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
NY Jets |
New England |
(15.00) |
(6.50) |
8.50 |
New England |
|
Cincinnati |
Baltimore |
(0.61) |
(6.50) |
5.89 |
Cincinnati |
|
Detroit |
LA Rams |
(20.02) |
(14.50) |
5.52 |
LA Rams |
|
Houston |
Arizona |
(12.53) |
(17.50) |
4.97 |
Houston |
|
Atlanta |
Miami |
(2.25) |
2.50 |
4.75 |
Miami |
|
Philadelphia |
Las Vegas |
(7.17) |
(3.50) |
3.67 |
Las Vegas |
|
Indianapolis |
San Francisco |
(7.63) |
(4.50) |
3.13 |
San Francisco |
|
Denver |
Cleveland |
1.04 |
(2.00) |
3.04 |
Denver |
|
New Orleans |
Seattle |
7.27 |
5.00 |
2.27 |
New Orleans |
|
Washington |
Green Bay |
(11.08) |
(9.50) |
1.58 |
Green Bay |
|
Kansas City |
Tennessee |
4.01 |
5.50 |
1.49 |
Tennessee |
|
Chicago |
Tampa Bay |
(13.94) |
(12.50) |
1.44 |
Tampa Bay |
|
Carolina |
NY Giants |
3.58 |
3.00 |
0.58 |
Carolina |
The Week 7 Money Zone picks are Cincinnati, LA Rams, Houston, Miami, Las Vegas, San Francisco, Denver, & New Orleans
**2021 Money Zone Record is 20-23 ATS**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week (includes Props) are 13-13 (50.00%) ATS in 2021**
Denver +2 @ Cleveland: After a promising start for the Browns, they have found themselves in danger after 2 straight bad losses. What compounds the problems is the injuries they’ve sustained to their three most important offensive players. Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt are all already ruled out for Thursday night. This Stefansky offense, as I’ve said many times, relies on a high volume of rushing attempts and I think that without these key cogs they will struggle to find explosive plays against this stout Denver defense. The Broncos currently rank 4th in the NFL at 3.7 yards allowed per carry, and I think they are in a great position to stifle this depleted Cleveland ground game. They also have plenty of solid resources in the secondary so that they can take a more aggressive approach in regards to pressuring back up Case Keenum. While Keenum has had success earlier in his career with Minnesota, his record since 2019 as a starter is 1-8. His only experience as a Brown was last year in mop-up duty in a blow out loss to Pittsburgh.
Only the Bucs and Panthers have blitzed more than the Broncos, and I think this is certainly the right approach to take against a quarterback who has had limited playing time. Kyle Fuller, Patrick Surtain Jr, and Bryce Callahan should have favorable matchups against the Browns receivers, and I think they should have no problems if extra pressure is sent on Keenum. Denver has been the hardest team to complete passes on in the NFL, maintaining an impressive 58% completion percentage. Because they have been so difficult to throw on, Denver has also been able to dominate time of possession. They rank third in that category so far in 2021.
I have faith in Teddy Bridgewater to manage a close, low-scoring game. Throughout his career, he has played a lot of mistake-free football. My only concern is Myles Garrett taking over the game on the edge. Denver must double team him throughout the game and get rid of the ball quickly. I think this is a perfect game to win on defense and running, which Denver is built to do. I think we’ve hit the point in the season where the injuries have certainly started to take a toll and it’s going to get difficult to play these Thursday night games on short rest. Because of this I’d expect an ugly game with not a lot of offense, which I believe favors the underdog Broncos.
Indianapolis @ San Francisco -4.5: I think the Colts are a good fade candidate after a blow-out win against an inferior Texans team. The Texans do not have the capabilities on offense to attack a Colts secondary that has been one of the league’s most porous so far.
|
Yards Allowed per Pass Att |
Def. Passer Rating |
3rd Down % Allowed |
|
7.80 (28th) |
111.20 (31st) |
42.42% (20th) |
Teams have lit up the Colts through the air, including Lamar Jackson’s near perfect 400 yard, 4 TD performance. The 49ers should benefit from an extra week of rest coming off the bye. Kyle Shanahan’s offenses have been sharp in this situation. This should come as no surprise as he’s widely regarded as one of the best, most creative play callers in the league today. Last year coming off the bye, the 49ers beat the league’s best Rams defense despite starting a mediocre Nick Mullens. In 2019, the 49ers destroyed Cleveland 31-3 and ran for well over 200 yards with a variety of ball carriers. Indy has been fairly strong at stopping the run, so I’d expect to see a lot of unconventional running plays with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk on reverses and sweeps etc.
Coming into the year, there was a ton of hype on both of these teams in their respective conferences. They’ve both hit some significant bumps so far, but I think San Fran has the better chance to straighten things out. Jimmy Garoppolo should return this week, and he has been a winner when he’s actually on the field. The Colts still have a lot of injuries at key positions, most notably on their offensive line. Their offensive line, which was once considered elite, has not lived up to expectations so far. Without Quentin Nelson, the running game has not been as reliable, and they haven’t got the explosive downfield plays that they had hoped for coming into the season. The 49ers defensive line remains loaded with talent, and they should win this matchup and pressure Carson Wentz who has been a turnover machine throughout most of his career.
Lastly, Jimmy Garoppolo is 18-8 in his career at home. This is a very beatable opponent for the 49ers, and they desperately need to regain some momentum to vault themselves back into the discussion in the NFC.
Cincinnati +6.5 @ Baltimore: I’ve been impressed with Cincinnati’s emergence in the AFC. They have improved significantly on the defensive front which should be a great help against their AFC North foe. In year’s past, this Ravens offense has steamrolled Cincinnati, but I think this game will be different. This year, the Bengals defense looks completely revitalized:
|
Yards Allowed / Play |
Points Allowed / Game |
Yards Allowed per Rush |
Def. Passer Rating |
|
5.10 (2nd) |
18.50 (5th) |
3.9 (7th) |
85.90 (6th) |
I think you don’t have a chance against Baltimore if you don’t slow down their running game first. I feel that Cincinnati has a great chance to do that by the way they have played so far this year. The defense held strong earlier in the year against the Vikings by holding them to just 67 yards on the ground. That Vikings team is typically one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. The additions of Trey Hendrickson, DJ Reader, and Larry Ogunjobi have made an immediate difference in the front seven and should certainly give them a chance of slowing down this Ravens run offense.
The Burrow/Chase connection has been one of the most dynamic deep threats in the NFL in 2021. The key in this game will be how well they can block for Burrow. The Bengals offensive line was a complete disaster in 2020, but they have held up reasonably well so far in 2021. They faced 3 of the best pass rush teams in the league to open the season in Minnesota, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. Burrow was sacked 5 times in Minnesota and Chicago, but at Pittsburgh he wasn’t pressured a single time in their 24-10 win. After those two games against the Vikings and Bears, the Bengals protection of Burrow has greatly improved and they have scored an average of 26 points per game because of it.
The Ravens took advantage of an unprepared Chargers team last week during their blowout win. I think they are in a potential let down spot as that LA team was certainly labeled as one of their more important games of the early season. I think this game is much more important for the Bengals given how poorly they have played against the Ravens in the past and they finally have a defense that is built to slow down the Ravens run game. I’d expect the margin of victory to be a FG in either direction in this one.
Detroit @ LA Rams -14.5: I think Detroit is entering auto-fade territory. The defense is on a historically bad pace for allowed passer rating and they have a quarterback who is a turnover machine. The combination of these two elements is a recipe for disaster. In the matchup against Cincinnati, Jared Goff’s average air yards per attempt was under 4 yards. This was also on 42 attempts! He’s playing far too tight and has no confidence in pushing the ball down the field. This was a huge reason why the Rams gave up on him and traded for Stafford. Stafford leads the NFL in yards per attempt of 9.1, a stark contrast. I have no doubt that the Rams coaching staff will have defensive plays setup to take advantage of Goff’s deficiencies. They’ve seen first-hand how bad he can be when he faces pressure, so I think you’ll see a ton of blitzes from the defense.
I could go ahead and rattle off just about every stat in the book and you’d see the huge disparity between these teams, but I’ll just use one metric:
|
Team |
Offensive Passer Rating |
Def. Passer Rating |
Passer Rating Differential |
|
LA Rams |
113.40 |
81.60 |
31.8 (3rd) |
|
Detroit |
86.50 |
113.80 |
-27.3 (29th) |
I think these numbers sum it up best, the talent gap is enormous, and the coaching gap may be even larger. I think Dan Campbell is already on the edge of losing his team, and they haven’t even hit the mid-season yet. I think this is a 20 point game at best for the Lions.
Random Thoughts:
- The books in Vegas were crushed last week. Publicly bet favorites won almost every game against the spread. This is just something that doesn’t happen, and I’d be stunned if they didn’t make the money back right away. I would be careful with all of the huge favorites this week. Aside from the Rams, I wouldn’t touch the others.
- I like Kansas City to start to build some momentum this week. Tennessee’s secondary is falling apart with injuries, I’d expect a huge day passing for Mahomes. They also return Chris Jones this week who is the anchor of the defense. They look like a completely different defense when he’s in the lineup.
- I don’t know how you could possibly trust Atlanta as a road favorite.
- The Cardinals look like a well-oiled machine right now, but 17.5 feels like it’s too much for them. The last time I recall a 17 point spread was with Minnesota vs. the Bills a few years ago, and the Bills won outright…. I’m probably forgetting about a Jets game though…..
- The Tampa spread also feels a little high. The Bears beat them last year and I can’t recall them being a double digit dog in recent history.
- I’m still not sure how my Patriots +4 bet from last week didn’t cover…. Had about 10-12 chances to get the cover, but somehow lost by 6…. Oh well!
Best of Luck Everyone!
