Well last night’s prop bet on D’Ernest Johnson did not work out so well…. After taking the under on his rushing yards, he put on a Barry Sanders-like performance. But that certainly won’t stop me from taking another swing this weekend!
Alvin Kamara Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Seattle has had major problems covering running backs in the passing game. They have given up the 2nd most yardage in the NFL to receiving running backs in fact. In total, they’ve allowed 360 yards through 6 games to RB’s, good for an average of about 60 per game. Here is how the top backs have performed against this Seattle defense:
|
Week # |
Running Back |
Receptions |
Yardage |
Longest Reception |
|
1 |
Jonathan Taylor |
6.00 |
60.00 |
15.00 |
|
1 |
Nyheim Hines |
6.00 |
48.00 |
19.00 |
|
2 |
Derrick Henry |
6.00 |
55.00 |
15.00 |
|
3 |
Alexander Mattison |
6.00 |
59.00 |
23.00 |
|
4 |
Kyle Juszczyk |
4.00 |
41.00 |
14.00 |
|
5 |
Darrell Henderson |
1.00 |
17.00 |
17.00 |
|
6 |
Najee Harris |
6.00 |
46.00 |
12.00 |
6 out of 7 backs would have exceeded 29.5 yards against this Seahawks defense, and that includes two running backs in the same game. I think Alvin Kamara remains one of the best receiving backs in the league, but he has yet to really have a breakout game receiving this year. He should get plenty of opportunities as the Seahawks are currently dead last in number of plays run against them per game at 72.8. I think the Sean Payton’s focus was all offense during the bye week, and we should probably see some new plays designed to get Kamara some more open field space. In Kamara’s career he’s averaged the following yardage receiving:
|
Season |
Receiving Yardage per Game |
|
2017 |
51.6 |
|
2018 |
47.3 |
|
2019 |
38.1 |
|
2020 |
50.4 |
|
2021 |
22.6 |
I think Brees’ departure certainly impacts his dominance, but that much of a drop is unacceptable. I’d be stunned if Payton doesn’t come up with a better way to utilize his most explosive offensive player.
Good Luck!
Another viable option is to play Alvin Kamara longest reception over 13.5 yards. 6 out of the 7 running backs have exceeded that number as well.
