D’Ernest Johnson Under 57.5 Rushing Yards (Draftkings Odds -110)
In this Thursday Night game, I think there’s a lot of value on the under for D’Ernest Johnson’s rushing yards. The main take away for me is Denver’s dominance in time of possession so far this season. The Denver defense is averaging a league low 57.5 plays per game and have given up the second fewest first downs in the NFL. I think this greatly limits the number of opportunities Johnson will have as a runner. In addition, Denver has allowed just 3.7 yards per carry. At that rate, Johnson would require 16 carries in this game. Johnson has no track record of showing that he can carry that type of workload. Even Nick Chubb, the true workhorse of this backfield, has only averaged 16.14 carries per game since 2020. I think it’s unlikely that Johnson will shoulder that type of load given his inexperience. In fact, in his career, he only has 40 total carries. I would expect Stefanski to try to split the carries at a more reasonable rate between Johnson and 3rd down back Demetric Felton if the flow of the game allows it.
Also, I have major doubts that Case Keenum will be able to pass the ball effectively. I think this is a huge problem for the Cleveland running game, as Denver will likely stack the box and force the Browns to win the game through the air. Keenum’s completion percentage since 2019 in his limited action is below 64% which would rank him about 23rd in the NFL for this season. As I mentioned in my week 7 writeup, the Broncos have been the most difficult team to throw against in terms of completion %. I envision the Browns struggling to sustain long drives which would create a difficult path for Johnson to achieve his yardage totals.
Good Luck!
