Mike Evans Under 69.5 Receiving Yards (Draftkings Odds -115)
Well, after my easy win last week on Alvin Kamara’s receiving yards, I’m looking to focus on a potential under in receiving yards. I think Mike Evans will have a tough matchup going against a motivated, fired-up Saints defense looking to avenge last year’s playoff loss. I assume that Evans will mostly draw Marcus Lattimore throughout the afternoon, and he has given him fits as of late. In Evans’ last 5 matchups with the Saints, he hasn’t exceeded 70 yards receiving.
|
Season |
Wk # |
Targets |
Receptions |
Catch % |
Yards |
|
2019 |
5 |
3.00 |
– |
0.00% |
– |
|
2019 |
10 |
8.00 |
4.00 |
50.00% |
69.00 |
|
2020 |
1 |
4.00 |
1.00 |
25.00% |
2.00 |
|
2020 |
9 |
6.00 |
4.00 |
66.67% |
64.00 |
|
2020 Playoffs |
DIV RD |
3.00 |
1.00 |
33.33% |
3.00 |
|
Total / Avg. |
|
24.00 |
10.00 |
41.67% |
27.60 |
I’d feel a lot better about the bet if the over/under got back into the 70’s, but I think it’s still worth a small unit play at 69.5.
As I said in my writeup for Week 8, I think this is a low-scoring, grind-it-out type game that shouldn’t benefit either offense. I think Godwin and Giovanni Bernard will be the more likely targets in the Bucs passing game this week given how much Evans has struggled vs. Lattimore. I’d look to fade Evans in any Draftkings/Fanduel matchups as well.
Good Luck!
