“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Jacksonville |
Seattle |
(11.80) |
(3.00) |
8.80 |
Seattle |
|
Washington |
Denver |
(10.11) |
(3.00) |
7.11 |
Denver |
|
Tampa Bay |
New Orleans |
(0.37) |
5.50 |
5.87 |
New Orleans |
|
Miami |
Buffalo |
(19.39) |
(14.00) |
5.39 |
Buffalo |
|
New England |
LA Chargers |
(0.79) |
(6.00) |
5.21 |
New England |
|
Cincinnati |
NY Jets |
15.45 |
10.50 |
4.95 |
Cincinnati |
|
Pittsburgh |
Cleveland |
(7.65) |
(3.50) |
4.15 |
Cleveland |
|
Dallas |
Minnesota |
6.04 |
2.50 |
3.54 |
Dallas |
|
NY Giants |
Kansas City |
(7.19) |
(9.50) |
2.31 |
NY Giants |
|
LA Rams |
Houston |
12.25 |
14.00 |
1.76 |
Houston |
|
Tennessee |
Indianapolis |
(2.23) |
(1.00) |
1.23 |
Indianapolis |
|
San Francisco |
Chicago |
4.43 |
3.50 |
0.93 |
San Francisco |
|
Philadelphia |
Detroit |
2.97 |
3.50 |
0.53 |
Detroit |
|
Carolina |
Atlanta |
(2.48) |
(3.00) |
0.52 |
Carolina |
|
Green Bay |
Arizona |
(6.43) |
(6.50) |
0.07 |
Green Bay |
The Week 8 Money Zone picks are New Orleans, Buffalo, New England, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, & NY Giants.
**2021 Money Zone Record is 23-28 ATS**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 14-16 ATS in 2021**
Tampa @ New Orleans +5.5: I think the Saints have great value here as a large home underdog against a divisional opponent that they have played great against in the past. In 2 out of the 3 games last season, the Saints wiped the floor with the Buccaneers. The Saints defense is still playing at an extremely high level much like they did a season ago:
|
Season |
Def. Passer Rating |
Yards Allowed / Rush |
Points Allowed / Game |
|
2021 |
73.50 (2nd) |
3.30 (1st) |
16.80 (3rd) |
|
2020 |
84.50 (4th) |
3.80 (1st) |
20.90 (3rd) |
As you can also see in the numbers below, even Tom Brady has struggled when facing this Saints defense:
|
Week # |
Passer Rating |
TD / INT Ratio |
Result |
|
1 |
78.40 |
2/2 |
L 23-34 |
|
9 |
40.40 |
0/3 |
L 3-38 |
|
Div. Round |
92.90 |
2/0 |
W 30-20 |
The divisional round playoff game was lost by the Saints’ 4 turnovers as opposed to what the Bucs did on offense. I think if the Saints can avoid the critical turnovers (which they have done so far this year) this game should be a lot closer than most people expect. Both the Bucs and Saints have taken care of the ball reasonably well with positive turnover margins.
The most critical element of this game will be whether or not the Saints can connect on a few downfield throws. Drew Brees’ lack of arm strength killed them in the divisional round game last year, as the Bucs took away everything underneath. The Saints haven’t thrown often, but they have connected on some huge downfield passes as evidenced by their 11.5 yards / completion. I think a big play is going to have to come from either Kenny Stills or Tre-Quon Smith who both struggled greatly last week. Tampa continues to be vulnerable at corner, and this is something the Saints must capitalize on.
The Saints are generally not home underdogs, so I can see the defense really rallying around this role and delivering a prideful performance.
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland -3.5: Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense have been a disaster when they have faced significant pressure so far this season. The Cleveland front seven has been a dominant unit generating pressure on 29.8% of pass attempts which finds them 2nd in the NFL. Pittsburgh’s offensive line has not shown that they can be a reliable unit. Roethlisberger clearly still doesn’t trust them and has not had the time to push the ball down the field. The Steelers average just 6.4 yards per attempt. Only the pathetic Dolphins and Bears rank worse in that category. Roethlisberger has been fading Najee Harris. The Cleveland linebackers must take him away and force Ben to hold onto the ball longer than he wants. When he has held onto the ball too long, he has made some head scratching plays which get the Steelers in trouble.
Nick Chubb is expected to return this week to aid D’Ernest Johnson in the backfield…. Johnson, much to my chagrin, was phenomenal against the Broncos, and the Cleveland zone running game remains the best in the league. I think they should get a spark from his return. The Steelers defense has not been the same dominant unit that it was in 2020. They rank middle of the pack in run defense, and they’ve had significant problems in the secondary allowing over a 100+ QB rating in pass defense. I think the Steelers defense has become over-reliant on TJ Watt. If he is contained, there isn’t much that scares you on that side of the ball. The Browns offensive line is the strength of the team, and I think they shouldn’t have an issue keeping him under wraps. I think either Mayfield or Keenum can take care of the ball and avoid the big mistakes that Pittsburgh would require for the win.
Dallas -2.5 (assuming Dak is playing) @ Minnesota: I’m backing the Cowboys as long as Dak is getting the start in this one. He is battling a calf injury, but most signs point to him playing on Sunday night. Minnesota’s defensive line has been great so far this season, but Dallas has the strength in the offensive line to block them. In fact, I really like the ground matchup that Dallas has. The Vikings have surrendered close to 5 yards per carry which ranks 29th in the league. Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard should be the focal point of the offensive attack with Dak not at 100%. I think there’s a strong chance you’ll see an old-school, run-heavy approach by the Cowboys. In the Vikings 3 losses to the Cardinals, Bengals, and Browns they gave up an average of 145 yards per game rushing.
Kirk Cousins has remained sharp this season, but I think there’s a good chance we could see some mistakes from him against this Cowboys defense that his forced a ton of turnovers going back to the 2nd half of last year. Dallas has taken the ball away over 2 times per game, mainly because of the aggressiveness on the outside from Defensive Player of the Year candidate Trevon Diggs. I still believe Cousins’ track record against tough defenses will come back to bite him. Also, look out for Randy Gregory who has been on a tear as of late, he has 4 sacks in his last 3 games.
The Vikings rushing offense hasn’t been as effective this year relative to where it normally functions. I always have a lot of respect for the blocking scheme and the dynamic abilities of Dalvin Cook. They rank 10th in yards per rush this season, which I think would need to improve in order for them to stay in this game. No one has been able to stop the Cowboys offense, as they have rung up over 34 points per game.
Cincinnati -10.5 @ NY Jets: Another year, another coaching staff, but it’s still the same old Jets. New York remains the worst team in several of the most important metrics:
|
Team |
Passer Rating Differential |
Yards / Point Margin |
Scoring Margin |
Turnover Margin |
|
NY Jets |
-38.50 (32nd) |
-6.6 (32nd) |
-15.8 (32nd) |
-1.3 (30th) |
This week, it’s looking like Mike White will be the starter for the Jets. White comes into an offense that’s averaging below 5 yards per play, good for 31st in the league. It’s difficult to see a path to a competitive game given how bad the Jets offense has performed, and they will now be led by a rookie from Western Kentucky against a defense that has only allowed 18.3 points per game. I know I said it last week, but the Bengals defensive line has been light years better than it was a season ago. Trey Hendrickson has especially been strong, as he continues to pile up sack numbers.
Joe Burrow continues to grow as a quarterback and he has gotten some eye-popping performances from rookie standout Ja’Marr Chase. You could make a case that Chase has been not only the best rookie receiver in 2021, but the best overall receiver in 2021. This offense is averaging over 9.2 yards per pass attempt (1st) and they go up against a struggling secondary that has surrendered a 102.20 passer rating to opposing QB’s so far this year.
Cincinnati’s only vulnerability in this game could be its offensive line. The Jets only relative strength on the team is in its defensive line. The Bengals line has gotten much better over the last month, but they should try to establish some run early to avoid an early mistake that could keep the Jets engaged in the game. I’d look for the Bengals to continue their hot streak, and beat down a demoralized team starting a QB with virtually no experience and not a lot to work with.
Random Thoughts:
- I’ve probably said it too many times, but I see great value on the Patriots this weekend. They should have a favorable matchup running the ball against the league’s worst run defense. 6 points is a lot against a team that they demolished in the very same venue a season ago with a much weaker team.
- The Giants were close to being a pick for me. This Kansas City team has not earned the right to be a close to 10 point favorite at this time.
- I think this may be the week Dan Campbell and the Lions get the first win. Their anemic pass defense might not hurt them as much against a struggling quarterback like Jalen Hurts.
- I think Green Bay has some value as over a TD underdog. Rodgers has been in this position many times without key weapons, and he usually finds a way to keep the game close. I also have a lot of questions about Arizona’s run defense.
- I hope you all decided to play my Alvin Kamara prop bet as opposed to my D’ernest Johnson Prop bet. 1 of them made me look like a genius, while the other could not have made me look any dumber. Look out for some additional props/future bets coming around the weekend.
- The Moneyzone has gotten pretty cold…. I think it’s time for a big week to get back on track!
Best of Luck Everyone!
