“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Green Bay |
Kansas City |
5.17 |
(7.00) |
12.17 |
Green Bay |
|
Buffalo |
Jacksonville |
23.08 |
14.00 |
9.08 |
Buffalo |
|
Cleveland |
Cincinnati |
(10.53) |
(2.50) |
8.03 |
Cincinnati |
|
Arizona |
San Francisco |
7.26 |
1.00 |
6.26 |
Arizona |
|
Atlanta |
New Orleans |
(11.46) |
(5.50) |
5.96 |
New Orleans |
|
Minnesota |
Baltimore |
(0.52) |
(6.00) |
5.48 |
Minnesota |
|
Houston |
Miami |
(1.38) |
(6.50) |
5.12 |
Houston |
|
Tennessee |
LA Rams |
(12.18) |
(7.50) |
4.68 |
LA Rams |
|
Denver |
Dallas |
(6.34) |
(9.00) |
2.66 |
Denver |
|
Chicago |
Pittsburgh |
(8.90) |
(6.50) |
2.40 |
Pittsburgh |
|
LA Chargers |
Philadelphia |
4.21 |
2.00 |
2.21 |
LA Chargers |
|
New England |
Carolina |
5.14 |
3.50 |
1.64 |
New England |
|
Las Vegas |
NY Giants |
4.58 |
3.00 |
1.58 |
Las Vegas |
|
NY Jets |
Indianapolis |
(10.18) |
(10.50) |
0.32 |
NY Jets |
The Week 9 Money Zone picks are New Orleans, Minnesota, Houston, LA Rams, Denver, Pittsburgh, & LA Chargers.
**2021 Money Zone Record is 28-30 ATS**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 16-18 ATS in 2021**
Atlanta @ New Orleans -5.5: I’ve written this article many times, and I’m about to write it again…. Let’s be honest here, Matt Ryan has shit his pants the last 3 times he’s faced this Saints defense. I vowed to myself to never back the Falcons in this matchup ever again after I picked Atlanta in back to back Thanksgiving games in 2018 and 2019 only to watch Matt Ryan get sacked 15 times in two games. The Falcons are 1-6 in this rivalry over the last seven matchups. If we just focus on the last 5 matchups between the two teams here is how the Falcons offense has performed: (I used that as a cut off because I think this is when the New Orleans defense really turned into the elite unit that we know it as today.)
|
Year |
Points Scored |
W/L |
Ryan QB Rating |
Sacks |
|
2018 |
17.00 |
L |
102.90 |
6.00 |
|
2019 |
26.00 |
W |
78.50 |
1.00 |
|
2019 |
18.00 |
L |
83.10 |
9.00 |
|
2020 |
9.00 |
L |
48.50 |
8.00 |
|
2020 |
16.00 |
L |
80.40 |
3.00 |
|
Average |
17.20 |
|
78.68 |
5.40 |
I continue to believe that this is an awful matchup for the outmanned Falcons. They remain a soft team that can’t stop the run. New Orleans’ physical offensive line has dominated Atlanta, and they will bring back Taysom Hill this week to reinforce that toughness. While I’m not a fan of his from a long term stand point, he has shown that he can be very effective as a starter against Atlanta. He performed very well in two starts against the Falcons last year filling in for Drew Brees which were both wins.
|
Yards / Att |
Total Touchdowns |
Rushing Yards / Game |
Avg. QB Rating |
|
7.75 |
4.00 |
66.00 |
107.95 |
The one player that the Saints didn’t have an answer for was Calvin Ridley. As you’ve probably heard, he has stepped away from the team indefinitely. I just don’t see how the Falcons move the ball in this game. Kyle Pitts at tight end is the lone weapon left for Atlanta, but I think he’ll be in for a tough afternoon. The Saints have defended tight ends very well all season. They haven’t given up a touchdown to a tight end all year. I think Dennis Allen will have a great scheme against this familiar Falcons team that will involve double teams on Kyle Pitts almost all day.
LA Chargers -2 @ Philadelphia: I think this is a great matchup for Justin Herbert to re-establish himself. He went against two great coaches in John Harbaugh and Bill Belichick that had excellent game plans that focused on his weaknesses. The Eagles just haven’t been a game plan specific team for a long time. They stick to their base defense, and try to generate pressure with their strong defensive line. This strategy, simply hasn’t worked against high-end passing teams. The Chiefs, Buccaneers, Raiders, and Cowboys all had huge days throwing against the Eagles secondary. Here’s a recap of those performances:
|
Team |
Points Allowed |
QB Rating Allowed |
Yards / Attempt |
Result |
|
Dallas |
41.00 |
143.30 |
9.15 |
L 41-21 |
|
Kansas City |
42.00 |
131.00 |
9.27 |
L 42-30 |
|
Tampa Bay |
28.00 |
102.10 |
7.07 |
L 28-22 |
|
Las Vegas |
33.00 |
113.60 |
9.50 |
L 33-22 |
These are 4 of the top 5 teams in passing yards per game, and I’d expect Herbert to have a similar day. None of these games were particularly competitive with the exception of the Tampa Bay game which was the result of a late comeback by the Eagles.
The Chargers have had significant problems stopping the run. I am worried about Hurts and the running game from that perspective, but I think if the Chargers can keep scoring points, the damage from the run game should be mitigated. Look back at the Browns game. The Chargers were gashed by the run by the best running team in the league, but it didn’t matter because Herbert was too potent in the passing game. I don’t think the Eagles are nearly as explosive as the Browns in the running game when they had fully healthy Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
I think this is also a good betting spot for the Chargers given that they are coming off consecutive losses, and the Eagles are coming off a blowout win over a pathetic Lions team. I think if the Chargers were coming in hot, you’d see a line closer to -4.5. I think there’s excellent value at under a FG for the far more talented roster.
Minnesota +6 @ Baltimore: Under Mike Zimmer, the Vikings have been an excellent bounce back team. Going back to 2017, Minnesota is 18-9 ATS (66%) after a loss. I prefer to bet the Vikings when the expectations have been lowered and they are sitting in an underdog position. Last week, was a typical, weak Kirk Cousins performance when the stakes were higher in a prime time game against a first time starter. I think this week, most people will assume the Vikings have been written off a serious contender.
Cousins has played surprisingly well so far on the road this season. He’s put together 3 solid performances against good competition:
|
Team |
QB Rating |
Yards / Att |
Result |
|
Cincinnati |
106.80 |
7.16 |
L 24-27 |
|
Arizona |
122.40 |
7.63 |
L 33-34 |
|
Carolina |
112.60 |
7.77 |
W 34-28 |
2 of these games were close losses, but would have been good enough to cover this particular game against a good Ravens team. This has not been new for Cousins. Last year, on the road his average QB rating was 105.0, good for 4th best in the NFL. I was honestly very surprised to see that he’s stepped up his road performances as of late.
The Vikings will certainly have their hands full with Lamar Jackson & Co. However, I’m encouraged that their front seven has played a lot better with the return of Anthony Barr. I think the combination of Barr and Eric Kendricks should help slow down the Ravens rushing attack.
Denver +9 @ Dallas: I’m taking another shot at Denver this week. There are few teams that can slow down the Cowboys passing game, but I think the Broncos could potentially be one of them. I think the depth of the Broncos secondary gives them a solid chance to matchup with Dallas’ loaded receiving corps. I also would not be surprised to see Dak Prescott show some rust early on in this game. This will be his first game action in 3 weeks, and his calf injury was significant enough to hold him out of a prime time Sunday Night game. I think given the uncertainty around Prescott, 9 points is a lot to ask for.
Dallas continues to commit a ton of penalties and are often poorly coached situationally. With a close to double digit spread, I think these mistakes are hard to overcome. Dallas ranks 30th in penalty yardage per game at close to 70 yards. They’ve created a ton of turnovers on defense, but they’ve also given up a lot of yardage on a per play basis. At 6.1 yards allowed per play, Dallas ranks just 27th in that category. If Teddy Bridgewater is able to play a relatively clean game, I think there’s a strong chance this a 1 possession game. Jerry Jeudy has returned at receiver, which should give the receiving game some more explosiveness. Dallas has shown that they can be vulnerable to some huge plays as they love to gamble for interceptions.
Dallas is 7-0 ATS so far this season, and I think the books have certainly adjusted for this. I think a more appropriate line would have been in the 6.5 – 7 point area. I think Denver hangs around and keeps this one close.
Random Thoughts:
- I liked KC a lot even before the Aaron Rodgers news broke. I’m not so sure, I like them at -7.
- It’s not often that you see a 1-7 team as a 6.5 point favorite. Seems like a scary decision, but I’d back Houston in that one. Sometimes it’s more about playing the value of the number than the quality of the team.
- 7.5 feels like a lot of points to give the Titans, but the Rams look like they’ve hit their stride, and I can’t wait to see the Donald/Miller combination attack opposing QB’s. The Rams remain the Shorestein Superbowl Favorite….
- I think Pittsburgh is also a solid play. That defensive line should annihilate Justin Fields who has had major problems dealing with pressure and holding onto the ball. The Bears defense has also become very ordinary.
- Buffalo gets another layup with Jacksonville this week. Hard to envision that this one will be close.
- I think the Patriots could be in a potential trap week. Carolina’s strengths align with a lot of New England’s weaknesses (pass rush & ability to run). If Sam Darnold plays that could actually be their saving grace. Belichick has owned Darnold throughout his career.
- I should have another prop bet for the end of the week… Last week was another easy win, as Mike Evans finished well under his yardage total. Be on the lookout!
Best of Luck Everyone!
