“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
San Francisco |
Dallas |
(10.33) |
(3.00) |
7.33 |
Dallas |
|
Pittsburgh |
Kansas City |
(6.47) |
(12.50) |
6.03 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Las Vegas |
Cincinnati |
(9.17) |
(5.00) |
4.17 |
Cincinnati |
|
New England |
Buffalo |
(7.17) |
(4.00) |
3.17 |
Buffalo |
|
Arizona |
LA Rams |
(6.10) |
(4.50) |
1.60 |
LA Rams |
|
Philadelphia |
Tampa Bay |
(8.03) |
(8.00) |
0.03 |
Tampa Bay |
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 36-31 ATS (53.73%) in 2021**
New England @ Buffalo -4: I think Buffalo is the best bet on a tough slate this weekend. I think the Patriots are overmatched against the talented Bills. New England’s defense has been a problem over the last month against balanced offenses. Early on in the season, the Patriots generated the majority of their pressure through two players, Matthew Judon and Christian Barmore. Barmore was carted off the field last Sunday in Miami, and is a major question mark entering the game. His effectiveness for Saturday is in doubt even if he’s able to suit up. Judon has not been the same player that he was through the first 3 quarters of the season. He struggled to contain Allen on the edge in both matchups with the Bills, and his sack numbers and pressures have declined significantly. Allen had all day to throw against the Patriots in their win, and I think they’ll have even more trouble getting to him on Saturday. I think Bill Belichick will probably try to send more blitz pressure at Allen this week in an attempt to change the strategy, but the Patriots secondary hasn’t shown enough to merit confidence in that game plan. Isaiah McKenzie of all players, torched the Patriots in the last matchup, but that game was played without better receivers in Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis. If they decide to blitz, I think it’s likely Steffon Diggs will light up JC Jackson like he did in 2020.
The game is expected to be played in single digit temperatures, but I think the Bills will have no problems throwing. Allen’s arm is too strong, and his mobility makes him dangerous despite the freezing weather. The same can not be said about Mac Jones. In what was a very promising start to 2021, I think he has substantially faded down the stretch. When the competition ramped up, he did not have the answers. Here is a snap shot of how he performed in the final stretch of the season:
|
Opponent |
Yards / Attempt |
TD / INT ratio |
QB Rating |
|
Indianapolis |
6.30 |
2/2 |
74.2 |
|
Buffalo |
4.53 |
0/2 |
31.4 |
|
Jacksonville |
7.57 |
3/0 |
128.1 |
|
Miami |
8.70 |
1/1 |
91.1 |
This also does not include the 3 pass outing in the wind bowl against Buffalo. The only strong performance was against Jacksonville who was the equivalent of an NCAA team when they played a few weeks back. Buffalo brings the #1 pass defense in the NFL that has yielded an opposing QB rating 65.30. They’ve had the benefit of an extremely soft schedule, but that is one of the best defensive passer ratings allowed that I can remember. Mac Jones will have to throw effectively to win this game. I think the Bills made some adjustments in their run defense after they were exposed in the “wind bowl”, and I am hard pressed to believe that New England can win again with a 1 dimensional offense. I think Jones is a young, inexperienced QB with a weak arm, and that is a huge issue in the cold against an elite pass defense.
Prop Bets:
Because I think the rest of the games are tough calls against the spread, I think there is more value on prop bets this week.
Zay Jones over 44.5 yards (-115): Jones has 50 or more receiving yards in 3 of the last 4 games. He’s also benefited from receiving 7,9,8,10 and 8 targets over the last 5 games. I think he’ll continue to benefit from opponents’ focus on Hunter Renfrow who became a weapon over the 2nd half of the season. Jones has been on the field on around 80% of snaps since week 13. The Raiders will likely be in a trailing position as they are close to a TD underdogs. Jones is also a player that I would include in all draftkings lineups at a $4,000 price.
Deebo Samuel over 28.5 yards rushing: At first glance, this feels like a high number, but the 49ers have loved giving him the ball out of the backfield once the games took on more meaning. Through the first 9 games of the year, Samuel only had 5 rushing attempts. Since week 10 he’s exceeded 28.5 yards in 7 of the 8 games. Here’s the breakout:
|
Opponent |
Rushing Attempts |
Rushing Yards |
|
LA Rams |
5.00 |
36.00 |
|
Jacksonville |
8.00 |
79.00 |
|
Minnesota |
6.00 |
66.00 |
|
Cincinnati |
8.00 |
37.00 |
|
Atlanta |
6.00 |
29.00 |
|
Tennessee |
5.00 |
32.00 |
|
Houston |
7.00 |
19.00 |
|
LA Rams |
8.00 |
45.00 |
He’s their best player, and the 49ers will want to give him the best opportunity to succeed by maximizing his carries. I’d expect 8-10 carries, and thought should be more than enough to get into the 30’s or 40’s.
Tee Higgins over 65.5 receiving yards: You could call me the president of the Ja’Marr Chase fan club…. But I think this week, Tee Higgins has more value. After watching Chase single-handedly destroy the Kansas City Chiefs, I think the Raiders will either use Casey Heyward to shadow chase or keep him doubled all game. I think this will likely open up opportunities for Higgins. Higgins has shown dynamic abilities when he is the focus of the game plan. Higgins went for over a hundred yards in 4 of his last 6 games of the season. Before Chase lit KC up in week 17, Higgins was one of the hottest receivers in the NFL. If you’re not crazy about Higgins’ number, I think you could also play the under on Chase’s yardage. Higgins is also a heavy play in my DK lineups.
Joe Mixon most rushing yards during Wildcard Week +750: After hitting last week’s bet on Justin Herbert, I have to take another shot on a similar bet. I think Mixon is in line for another huge game against the Raiders. As I mentioned above, the Raiders main focus will likely be on slowing down the Bengals piping hot passing game. Mixon had one of his best games of the season in their last matchup with the Raiders as he posted a 30 carry 123 yard outing.
I think Mixon is one of the only bets on the board who has true workhorse potential this week. Elijah Mitchell (+750) will likely have to share carries with Deebo Samuel and Jeff Wilson. I just don’t see any value in Najee Harris (+750) as it will be difficult to get carries in a potential blowout against the Chiefs. Devin Singletary (+1200) is someone who I expect a productive game out of, but he has hit the 20 carry mark just twice all season.
Random Thoughts:
- I think Dallas should give Jimmy Garoppolo problems if he’s forced to throw a lot. I envision Garoppolo getting swarmed by the dynamic pass rush of Parsons, Lawrence, and Gregory. Dallas is the better team, but it’s hard to trust Mike McCarthy as a playoff favorite.
- I think Arizona has been a shaky team after their hot start. But how can you trust Matthew Stafford with the amount of interceptions he’s thrown lately? I don’t like either team in this one.
- I’ve said it before, but I believe Tampa is an awful matchup for Philly. I don’t think the Eagles will be able to run the ball on this Bucs defense, and I don’t trust Jalen Hurts as a passer. 8 or 9 points feels like a lot, but to me the bet is Tampa or nothing.
- In the Chiefs/Steelers game, I think Pittsburgh will play better than they did in the first matchup… but I don’t think that’s setting the bar very high…. This team is bad, I still can’t believe they squeaked into the playoffs!
Best of Luck Everyone!
