2021 Season – NFL Week 1 (Available to View)

“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.

**2020 Money Zone Record was 61-52 ATS (54.00%)**

The Week 1 Money Zone picks are Washington, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Philadelphia, New England, Tennessee, & New Orleans.

“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis.

Pittsburgh +6.5 @ Buffalo: We are back everyone!!!! Let’s start this year off with a bang….

To those of you who have been members in the past, this pick will probably not surprise you much at all. I think Buffalo is an excellent fade candidate early in the year. I’m anxious to see how the Bills react as significant favorites in their division and at the top of the AFC. My gut tells me that this is not a team that is ready to deal with such lofty expectations and a tortuous schedule. Josh Allen had an amazing season last year, but I am hard pressed to believe that he can shoulder such a heavy workload without a productive running game.

I think this is a perfect scenario to back the Steelers. Time and again, they have proven to be an unreliable team to bet as a favorite, but they are a profit machine in underdog situations. I think with largely the same coaching staff, and the same type of team built around a strong defense, they should continue to fit this mold. Look at how they compare against the rest of the league as underdogs since 2015:

Team	Wins	Losses	Win %
Pittsburgh	21.00	8.00	72.41%
New Orleans	23.00	10.00	69.70%
New England	7.00	4.00	63.64%
Baltimore	19.00	12.00	61.29%
Carolina	26.00	17.00	60.47%

I think it’s also important to look back at how Vegas viewed both of these teams when they matched up in Buffalo towards the end of last season. On December 13, when these teams lined up, the spread was -2 for the Bills. Fast forward 9 months later and suddenly the spread is -6.5? This just doesn’t add up to me, as I believe both teams have largely remained the same personnel wise. I also want to point out that the Steelers defense was without Devin Bush who should make a huge difference at linebacker in his return this year.

Pittsburgh certainly has deficiencies on the offensive line, but I don’t think Buffalo’s front seven is built to exploit that. Last year, the Bills ranked just 23^rd in pressure percentage at 22.2%. They also ranked just 20^th in rushing yards allowed per game, which is a pretty high number for a team that had the lead for the majority of their games. While I’m not expecting the Steelers to be highly effective rushing the ball, I am eager to see how Najee Harris looks in the passing game. He should be a dynamic threat catching the ball out of the backfield, which is something Pittsburgh has lacked since Le’Veon Bell’s departure.

Philadelphia +3.5 @ Atlanta: Atlanta is certainly a fade candidate as a favorite. This team has proven nothing to me over the past several seasons under Matt Ryan’s control. In the season opener in 2020, they opened as favorites over the Seahawks and were pummeled 38-25. The Falcons have finally moved on from the ever-disappointing Dan Quinn, but I just don’t see any significant upgrades yet defensively. I think the Eagles should be able to run and pass at will against this weak defense. In 2020, this unit continued its awful path that it has been on for the past several years. I think these problems will continue to manifest in 2021:

Season	Sack %	Yards / Play	Passer Rating Def.
2020	4.43% (26th)	6.2 (29th)	101.7 (27th)
2019	4.96% (30th)	5.8 (24th)	96.9 (24th)
2018	5.95% (26th)	6.0 (27th)	98.3 (25th)

When your defense is helpless against the pass, it’s no wonder why the Falcons are 7-14 (33.33% 28^th in the NFL) as favorites against the spread during this same time frame.

I think Philadelphia is vulnerable on their offensive line, like Pittsburgh. However, Atlanta has shown that this is not something that they can take advantage of as evidenced by their poor sack percentages over the past 3 seasons. The front seven remains underwhelming at best, and it is certainly a questionable decision not to invest any high draft picks on their clear defensive needs.

Jalen Hurts was inconsistent last year, but he flashed some impressive skills. He rushed for over a hundred yards against a tough Saints defense and topped the 60 yard mark in 3 of his 4 starts. Hurts should be helped greatly by the addition of Devonta Smith who looks to have elite quickness and route running ability, something that the Eagles lacked in 2020. I’m also looking for Miles Sanders to have a big game, especially if they can get the read option game going.

The Eagles defense had plenty of problems of its own last year, but the defensive line is not to be blamed. They should have a major edge over the Falcons offensive line which has seen a ton of turnover over the past couple seasons. Aside from Jake Matthews at left tackle, there are a ton of unknowns. Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, and Derek Barnett anchor a pass rush that sacked the quarterback at a 8.46% rate which was second only to the Rams and Steelers. Matt Ryan has had 9 games in the last 2 years where he was sacked 4 or more times, and Atlanta is 1-8 in those games. I think the Falcons offense has gotten a lot easier to defend. Dedicate significant resources to Calvin Ridley and blitz everything else at Matt Ryan and they seem to fall apart. Let’s hope the Eagles follow that blueprint.

Despite all of the protection problems they’ve had along with their inability to stop the passing game, the Falcons chose to spend their top pick on a skill position player. While I think Kyle Pitts will end up being a fine player, I think the Falcons front office completely missed the mark. If they weren’t able to win with Julio Jones, arguably the best skill position player in the league, you would think they would redirect their attention to the defense and to the offensive line.

I think you get the point on how I feel about the Falcons as a favorite… go with Philly this week.

Miami @ New England -3: I think the Patriots have a dream matchup to start the season. While the Dolphins made significant headway in 2020 with their pass defense, I think they are still vulnerable to the run. The Dolphins are built to shut down passing games with their elite corners in Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. However, I think they are in trouble against a team with a physical offensive line and a power running game. Unfortunately for Miami, the Patriots will have no interest in testing the secondary. I wouldn’t be surprised if Josh McDaniels calls 40 running plays. I don’t think the Dolphins can stop them on the ground. When they do decide to pass, I expect it to be off of play-action looks designed for the newly acquired tight ends. I think they’ll be wise to attack the middle of the defense as opposed to the corners.

Much of the focus over the Summer has been on the quarterback competition between Cam Newton and Mac Jones. In this particular game, I don’t care who the quarterback is. This game will be about the Patriots running game and what I think will be an elite defensive emergence. If you’re worried about the quarterback play, I think you are focusing on the wrong area. I think there’s a chance this could be a top 3 defensive unit and should possess one of the best front sevens in the NFL.

Much of what I said in the Atlanta/Philly matchup applies to this game as well. The Dolphins and Tua may have reloaded their skill position players, but there are major question marks remaining on the offensive line. Tua was sacked on close to 7% of his pass attempts, which is around 22^nd in the NFL based on season averages. The Patriots ranked #1 in hurry % last year in what I thought was a sub-par unit for a typical Belichick led defense. With the additions of Judon, Hightower, and Van Noy at the linebacker level, I think Josh Uche and Chase Winovich naturally fit into more specialized pass-rushing roles where they should excel. The Patriots struggled to stop the run in a number of games in 2020, but they have filled that need by bringing in a lot of help on the defensive line both through the draft and free agency.

LA Chargers @ Washington +1: I backed the Football Team early and often in 2020 with great success. I think they are in an even better position to succeed this year, as they finally have a proven NFL veteran at quarterback. Haskins was a disaster, and Alex Smith (as much as I love the guy and his comeback story) was essentially immobile. Fitzpatrick can certainly be a wildcard, but he can also get extremely hot. I think this year you’ll finally get to see how good Terry Mclaurin is. I think he has Steffon Diggs’ type quickness, and his route running is immaculate. He just hasn’t been able to showcase his skills because he’s been surrounded by awful quarterbacks his whole career. To compliment Mclaurin, they added Curtis Samuel, who I also believe should emerge in this offense. There’s finally a lot to be excited about on the offensive side of the ball for the Football Team, and I think they should shine in this matchup.

Aside from Joey Bosa on the edge, I think the Chargers have a lot of defensive holes. Casey Hayward, their best corner for the last several years and Melvin Ingram, their 2^nd best pass rusher, have left the team. Chris Harris is slated as the replacement left corner, but I think he is far past his prime. The rest of the defensive front is made up largely of unknowns which should open up some opportunities for Fitzpatrick and company to have a big day.

There is a ton of hype on Justin Herbert and the Chargers heading into the season. He had a phenomenal rookie season, but I think this is a tough spot to open as a road favorite. He draws Chase Young and likely the best defensive line in all of football. As a reminder, here is where Washington ranked in several of the most important defensive categories in 2020:

Passer Rating Def.	Sack %	Pass Yards Allowed / Att	Points Allowed
83.0 (3rd)	8.08% (4th)	6.0 (4th)	21.20 (6th)

The Chargers have smartly built a better offensive line in front of Herbert, but they will be tested right out of the gate. I’m really expecting Chase Young to elevate himself into an elite player and challenge for defensive player of the year. I think this could be a statement game for the defense to lock down one of the more explosive, up-and-coming offenses in the NFL.

Random Thoughts:

• Common theme on the Shorestein Says picks of the Week… All of my picks are expected to have strong front sevens. Hoping that is a key in week 1.
• I’m leaning Dallas on the season opener. Tampa enters the season with a TON of hype and a huge spread. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a rusty, lower scoring game that favors the Cowboys at +7.5.
• I’m still baffled by the amount of people that have written off the Saints completely this season. It seems most have forgotten about their fast, elite defense. I think they are in a strong position to cover against a Green Bay team that starts its season after a tumultuous, drama-filled offseason.
• Jacksonville/Houston is about as unexciting of a game you could possibly have for a season opener.
• I’m very high on the Rams to enter the season, but again, I think it’s a pretty tall ask as a TD+ favorite. The Bears have proven to be a tough team as that significant of an underdog in the Nagy era.
• Indy is another intriguing team, but I’d probably stay away as they have had an offseason full of injuries at key positions. Seattle is also typically a fast starting team in September.
• I hope you all like the new website!!

Best of Luck Everyone!