“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Houston |
Cleveland |
0.30 |
(12.50) |
12.80 |
Houston |
|
NY Giants |
Washington |
(11.16) |
(3.50) |
7.66 |
Washington |
|
Denver |
Jacksonville |
(0.30) |
6.00 |
6.30 |
Jacksonville |
|
New England |
NY Jets |
11.65 |
5.50 |
6.15 |
New England |
|
Detroit |
Green Bay |
(15.86) |
(11.50) |
4.36 |
Green Bay |
|
Atlanta |
Tampa Bay |
(9.37) |
(13.00) |
3.63 |
Atlanta |
|
Cincinnati |
Chicago |
0.40 |
(2.50) |
2.90 |
Cincinnati |
|
San Francisco |
Philadelphia |
0.74 |
3.50 |
2.76 |
Philadelphia |
|
Dallas |
LA Chargers |
(0.98) |
(3.50) |
2.52 |
Dallas |
|
Tennessee |
Seattle |
(7.66) |
(5.50) |
2.16 |
Seattle |
|
New Orleans |
Carolina |
5.61 |
3.50 |
2.11 |
New Orleans |
|
Minnesota |
Arizona |
(2.92) |
(4.50) |
1.58 |
Minnesota |
|
Kansas City |
Baltimore |
3.88 |
3.00 |
0.88 |
Kansas City |
|
Las Vegas |
Pittsburgh |
(5.34) |
(5.50) |
0.16 |
Las Vegas |
|
LA Rams |
Indianapolis |
4.08 |
4.00 |
0.08 |
LA Rams |
|
Buffalo |
Miami |
3.53 |
3.50 |
0.03 |
Buffalo |
The Week 2 Money Zone picks are Green Bay, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Dallas, Seattle, & New Orleans.
**2021 Money Zone Record is 3-4 ATS**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 2-2 ATS in 2021**
Detroit @ Green Bay -11.5: I wasn’t surprised at all to see the Packers come up short against the Saints. The drama-filled offseason clearly spilled over into the first game against a very tough and talented New Orleans team. This week, however, I don’t care about the Rodgers drama show as they matchup against an inferior, out-matched Lions team. The Lions have gaping holes on their pass defense that should get this Packers offense back on track. To make matters worse for Detroit, they will be without their top young cornerback in Jeff Okudah as he has been placed on IR and is now out for the season.
Rodgers has had no problem dicing up the Lions secondary in the past. In the two matchups with Detroit last season, he posted QB ratings of 133 and 107 including a non-competitive win at Green Bay in which the Packers prevailed by 21. The Packers also have a decisive advantage on the ground as Green Bay rushed for 379 yards combined in the two contests in 2020.
Rodgers isn’t the only quarterback that has carved up Detroit’s defense. Dan Campbell has inherited likely the NFL’s worst defense. In 2020, this Lions team put together one of the worst performances I can remember to date:
|
Passer Rating Def |
Yards / Play |
Points Allowed per Game |
Red Zone TD % Allowed |
|
112.40 (32nd) |
6.30 (32nd) |
32.40 (32nd) |
72.31% (31st) |
In Week 1, the Lions continued down this long, pathetic trend en route to a 41-33 loss to San Francisco. Jimmy Garoppolo finished with a QB rating of 136, and found Deebo Samuel with ease as receivers ran wide open all day. Expect a similar outing from Devante Adams & Co.
On the other side of the ball, I am not worried about Jared Goff. His propensity to turn the ball over keeps my mind at ease while backing Green Bay. The one bright spot for Detroit looks to be the running back, Deandre Swift. However, I feel confident that the Packers’ 10th ranked rushing defense in 2020 can keep him contained. I also think his opportunities will be limited, as the Lions will likely have to throw in order to match scores with Green Bay.
I like the Packers to win big in this one…
New Orleans -3.5 @ Carolina: It was refreshing to see my preseason thoughts on the Saints come to fruition last week. I don’t know how many more times I can say it, but this defense is for real! They fly to the ball, they have a disruptive front seven, and they turn the ball over consistently year in and year out. I think this is another solid opportunity to back them against a less talented Panthers squad. In this spot last season, here is how the Carolina quarterbacks fared when they hosted the Saints:
|
Quarterback |
INT’s |
QB Rating |
Sacks |
|
Teddy Bridgewater |
2.00 |
44.80 |
1.00 |
|
Philip Walker |
3.00 |
20.50 |
2.00 |
New Orleans suffocated this Panthers offense. Although getting Christian McCaffery back for this season should certainly help the Panthers, I wouldn’t expect that alone to save the passing game.
I think another interesting factor at play is this is the first time in Sam Darnold’s career that he’ll be facing this New Orleans defense. Darnold hasn’t exactly been careful with the ball in his young career as he has 39 picks and 21 fumbles in his 39 career games. This should leave Carolina feeling uneasy as they face a defense that has remained elite in taking the ball away over the past few seasons. I think the Panthers offensive line is still full of question marks, and this could be a huge problem for Darnold this week.
I was very encouraged to see Jameis Winston play an efficient, clean game last week. So far, it looks like Sean Payton has been able to reign him in and keep him composed. I’d expect him to have success this week behind his all-league offensive line as they take on a team that has had problems stopping the run the past few seasons. Winston also has significantly more arm strength than what we saw from Drew Brees in his last years, and that could be a huge factor. I liked seeing him push the ball down the field, which was something New Orleans struggled with in 2020. I think there should be opportunities there with Deonte Harris and Marquez Callaway against the young secondary.
Dallas +3.5 @ LA Chargers: Dak Prescott picked up right where he left off before he broke his foot. I think he threw the ball as effective as ever, and he should be in line for a huge day against a defense full of unknowns on the Chargers. In Prescott’s last 4 full games, he has thrown for 1800+ yards, an average of over 450+ per game. I’m never one to analyze a performance based on yards, but those are just eye-popping numbers. More importantly than the yardage, the Cowboys have also averaged 34.5 points during that span.
While I am echoing many of the same points I laid out for Washington last week, I think Dallas is the far more accomplished and talented offense and should deliver on these openings. I’d expect the Cowboys to use a much more balanced offensive approach this week as they no longer face the brick wall of a defensive line in Tampa. This week, Dallas gets back one of the best guards in football in Zack Martin who should help clear the way for Zeke in what should be a better rushing performance.
The Chargers had a solid road win last week over a tough Washington defense. I have legitimate concerns about the Cowboys pass defense, but I was encouraged with how they played vs. Tampa. The Bucs have likely the best set of skill position players in the NFL, and I thought the Cowboys defense largely played well for most of the night. The majority of completions required pinpoint accuracy that only Tom Brady can make with regularity. Time and again, the talented Bucs receivers and tight ends made phenomenal catches with defenders draped all over them. If you watched the Cowboys last season, this was not something that you saw.
My biggest concern is Austin Ekeler in the passing game. Dan Quinn defenses have struggled against receiving running backs in the past, but I think Micah Parsons’ speed at the linebacker position should be a helpful resource to mitigate that. Dallas’ defense has forced a lot of turnovers going back to the second half of last season. They picked up right where they left off as they forced 4 more turnovers against the Bucs on opening night. This will again be crucial for the Cowboys path to victory.
I’d probably expect a shootout type game in this contest, but I like Dallas as FG+ Dogs.
San Francisco @ Philadelphia +3.5: I hope I’m not falling into the week 1 trap of over reaction, but I think Philly is legit. I think the offensive line is significantly improved from last year. The trio of Lane Johnson, Jason Kelce, and Jordan Mailata looks to be a stable combination now after they had a variety of injuries in 2020 that derailed their season. Jalen Hurts clearly looks like the leader of the team, and I think the new coaching staff and skill position players have rallied around him. Devanta Smith should be a problem for the 49ers as they suffered a significant loss at corner in Jason Verrett. I’m interested to see if the 49ers defense can remain as effective without Robert Saleh as the defensive coordinator. They gave up a lot of big plays against a terrible Lions team and almost gave away a gigantic lead. I think they are in for a far more difficult contest against a better, more explosive Eagles team in the second of back to back road games.
The Eagles defensive line remains an elite unit as they decimated the Falcons offensive line. Fletcher Cox looks as good as ever. I think his interior pressure will be key in this game. The 49ers are strong at offensive tackle and if they are going to get to Garoppolo, I think it will have to be up the middle. I went back and looked at the 49ers last 3 losses with Jimmy G as the starter. The common theme in these losses was how often he was blitzed.
|
Opponent |
# of Blitzes |
Sacks |
QB Rating |
Score |
|
Arizona |
10.00 |
3.00 |
103.00 |
L 20-24 |
|
Miami |
8.00 |
3.00 |
15.70 |
L 17-43 |
|
Seattle |
10.00 |
3.00 |
55.20 |
L 27-37 |
While Philly is typically, a team that successfully generates pressure with only their defensive line, I think new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon will send extra rushers as this has clearly been a problem for Garoppolo in the past. The Lions tried to use the same strategy in week 1 as they blitzed on 50% of snaps, but with their talent deficiencies on defense, they were unable to have success. Expect the Eagles to get home on their blitzes and force Garoppolo into some bad decisions.
The injury to 49ers running back Raheem Mostert is another critical one to the San Francisco running game. Without him as the lead back, I think they are far less intimidating and will be forced to rely on young, unproven rookies on the road to shoulder the workload. Kyle Shanahan coached teams typically rank very high in rushing attempts per game, and I think this injury could force him to put the ball into Jimmy’s hands more often than he would like.
Random Thoughts:
- It felt good to see Josh Allen go down in Week 1. He missed a lot of throws wildly high… like his expectations for this year…..(Ha!)
- It’s interesting to see Pittsburgh go from 6.5 point dogs to 5.5 point favorites in 1 week. Seems like a pretty significant over reaction when you account for how bad Big Ben and the offensive line looked for much of that game. I’m tempted to back the Raiders, but I think they are a hard team to support coming off such a roller coaster of a Monday Night Game
- Each of the past two seasons, I’ve backed the Ravens over the Chiefs. I will not be making that mistake again this year. The Ravens’ blitz happy scheme does not work against Mahomes and Co. Plus they are getting dangerously thin at corner.
- The Patriots really let me down last week as they looked to finish off the Dolphins on that final drive…. It was encouraging to see Mac Jones play well, but I think people need to cool their jets on him just a bit. I wouldn’t bet them with the spread this week, but I’d be stunned if they lost to the Jets and started 0-2
- OK, this is going to sound crazy, but I really like Atlanta at +13 this week. Tough for me to justify as I ripped them to shreds last week in my writeup, but they tend to play well against Tampa. In week 14, they jumped out to a 17-0 lead and then blew the game in a Falcons-like fashion, (but still covered the spread!)
- Cincinnati is an interesting play, but I think that O-line will have problems against Chicago’s front. However, Andy Dalton still looks like Andy Dalton….
- I would fade Arizona this week. Hype train will be building there off their dominant performance, but I can see Minnesota keeping that interesting. Dalvin Cook would be my DraftKings play.
Best of Luck Everyone!