“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Carolina |
Houston |
(3.10) |
7.50 |
10.60 |
Houston |
|
LA Chargers |
Kansas City |
(12.48) |
(6.00) |
6.48 |
Kansas City |
|
Tampa Bay |
LA Rams |
(4.17) |
1.50 |
5.67 |
LA Rams |
|
Cincinnati |
Pittsburgh |
(7.23) |
(3.00) |
4.23 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Seattle |
Minnesota |
4.17 |
1.50 |
2.67 |
Seattle |
|
Washington |
Buffalo |
(5.55) |
(8.00) |
2.45 |
Washington |
|
Miami |
Las Vegas |
(1.33) |
(3.50) |
2.17 |
Miami |
|
Green Bay |
San Francisco |
(1.41) |
(3.50) |
2.09 |
Green Bay |
|
Arizona |
Jacksonville |
9.57 |
7.50 |
2.07 |
Arizona |
|
Indianapolis |
Tennessee |
(3.69) |
(5.50) |
1.81 |
Indianapolis |
|
Chicago |
Cleveland |
(5.40) |
(7.00) |
1.60 |
Chicago |
|
Baltimore |
Detroit |
7.48 |
9.00 |
1.52 |
Detroit |
|
NY Jets |
Denver |
(11.72) |
(10.50) |
1.22 |
Denver |
|
Philadelphia |
Dallas |
(3.12) |
(4.00) |
0.88 |
Philadelphia |
|
Atlanta |
NY Giants |
(3.45) |
(3.00) |
0.45 |
NY Giants |
|
New Orleans |
New England |
(2.61) |
(3.00) |
0.39 |
New Orleans |
The Week 3 Money Zone picks are LA Rams, Washington, Pittsburgh, Miami, Seattle, Green Bay, & Arizona.
**2021 Money Zone Record is 5-9 ATS**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 4-4 ATS in 2021**
Miami +3.5 @ Las Vegas: The Raiders have come flying out the gate and are off to a very surprising 2-0 start with wins over two tough AFC foes in Pittsburgh and Baltimore. I think the Vegas offense has always had the potential to play at a high level, but I remain skeptical of the unproven defense. I think this week they draw a Miami team that is coming off a blowout loss to the Bills, and I’d expect them to play much better. Tua is banged up and out, but I think Jacoby Brissett has proven that he’s a capable backup. The Dolphins have great weapons on the outside as Will Fuller will be making his debut as he joins Devante Parker and rookie Jaylen Waddle. While the front seven for the Raiders has shown improvement in the first two games, I have major questions about the Vegas secondary against all of this speed. The Raiders ranked 28th in yards allowed per completion and 25th in yards allowed per attempt in 2020. I don’t think these problems have magically gone away.
The key for me in this game is the Dolphins pass defense. Led by Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, I think the Miami secondary remains the strength of this team. They should have the corner talent to take away Huner Renfrow, which should allow them to double Darren Waller. Vegas leads the NFL in pass attempts so far in 2021 with over 46 attempts per game. I think this is largely driven by their lack of confidence in their running game, and with Josh Jacobs not at full strength, they can’t rely on any production from their current back field. Until this season, this iteration of the Raiders was built around a strong offensive line/running game. That is not the case right now as they lost Rodney Hudson & Trent Brown in the offseason and now are dealing with injuries to Denzelle Good and Alex Leatherwood. I have my doubts that Derek Carr will be able to play a 2nd straight clean game against an upper echelon pass defense. Miami led the league in interceptions in 2020, and I think they should get a couple in this contest given the high volume of pass attempts and the lack of protection available to Carr on the line.
The Dolphins are 8-3 ATS since last season as an underdog (72.70%) and the Raiders are just 4-7 (36.40%) as a favorite since 2019. Vegas hasn’t been able to deliver with any semblance of an expectation, and I think that trend continues this weekend.
Another interesting stat I had to look into was the discrepancy in penalties. I like to use penalty yardage totals to gauge how well-coached a team is. Since Gruden returned to the Raiders in 2018, they have ranked 23rd, 31st, and 25th coming into this season. On the other hand, Flores’ Dolphins ranked 5th and 5th in 2019 and 2020. I think it’s much harder for an undisciplined team with a track record of losing focus, to win and cover a spread against a smart, tough team like Miami.
Washington +8 @ Buffalo: I’m again looking to fade Buffalo as an inflated favorite against a tough defense that has a strong track record as an underdog. This one actually opened up at +9.5, and it has been bet down to +8 or +7.5 at most sports books. I’m really looking for the Washington defensive line to re-emerge as they have not lived up to their expectations early on this year. This is a marquee matchup for Chase Young to really put his fingerprints on the game. Josh Allen has faced some tough defenses to start the year, and he has struggled so far:
|
Opponent |
Yards / Attempt |
QB Rating |
Bad Throw % |
|
Pittsburgh |
4.89 |
79.70 |
18.40% |
|
Miami |
7.00 |
75.20 |
24.10% |
Bad throw % is a new stat that is available in the advanced passing metrics (which I love by the way….)
To give that % something to compare to, Allen’s bad throw % for the 2020 season was only 16%. His completion % has also dipped to 56% on the season, which in this era of passing, is horrible. I think this is definitely something to monitor for Bills fans, and he has yet another difficult defense to face on Sunday.
Taylor Heinicke has been a breath of fresh air for Football Team fans. Every time he has been on the field for Washington, they have looked very efficient on offense. I think he has to be a little more careful with some of his high throws over the middle, but his rapport with Terry McLaurin has been phenomenal. In McLaurin’s 2 games with Heinicke, he has caught 17 of his 21 targets for 182 yards and a TD. I think Terry will likely see a lot of Tre’Davious White in coverage, but I think he is too elusive to be completely shut down. Buffalo’s defense has looked strong so far, but I think that was more of a product of playing poor offensive lines in Miami and Pittsburgh. Washington has been able to avoid sacks and have run the ball effectively so far in 2021.
Buffalo continues to get poor production from its running game outside of Josh Allen. Bills runners are averaging just 4.4 yards per carry, which was a number that they struggled with as well in 2020. Continuing to over rely on Allen will eventually be a problem for this team as he has shown that he can get extremely hot, but can also get just as cold. I think this could especially be a problem against this Washington front 7 as they have had some huge games against quarterbacks that hold the ball too long.
Washington has been a great underdog team to bet. This includes 3 straight wins against the spread when they are underdogs of 6 points or more. I see a lot of value on this spread. I think Buffalo remains questionable as this significant of a favorite, especially when matched with a playoff team from last season. Washington also gets an extra rest advantage after coming off their Thursday night game from last week.
Tampa Bay @ LA Rams +1.5: This is an awesome matchup that I can’t wait to watch. Clearly, these two teams are the class of the NFC, and I really like the Rams to prevail this week. While Tampa comes in red hot, I think they’ve had the benefit of an extremely soft schedule to start the season. The Cowboys and Falcons defensive units look like high school teams when compared with the speed and power that the Rams possess. I think it will take time for the Bucs offense to adjust to the talent discrepancy that exists between the Rams and the teams they’ve faced thus far. Brady’s been phenomenal in these two games, but I want to see how he looks against an elite defense before I over react and give him the MVP in 2021.
In the matchup between these two last season, up the middle pressure was a major factor for Tom Brady. He played probably his worst game of the season and was clearly rattled with Aaron Donald in his face.
|
QB Rating |
Yards / Attempt |
Comp % |
Bad Throw % |
|
62.50 |
4.50 |
54.00% |
27.70% |
I think one factor that can’t be ignored is the lingering matchup with New England in week 4. I think even the best player in history can fall victim to looking ahead to the next week as its likely the most anticipated regular season game of all time….. I think this certainly works in the Rams favor. Jalen Ramsey matches up well with the size at receiver that the Bucs have with Evans and Godwin. Antonio Brown was most likely the Bucs best mismatch for this game, but his status is currently in doubt with Covid protocols. I think that is a huge loss for this particular matchup.
Matthew Stafford has fit the McVay offense like a glove. His downfield accuracy and ability to read a defense is just something that Goff couldn’t deliver consistently. Tampa Bay has major problems at corner right now. They are battling injuries to Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy Bunting, and when Jamel Dean has been left on an island he’s been torched by talented receivers. I think the downfield passing game will be a major factor for the Rams, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Desean Jackson was used in some big plays. If the Rams offensive line can protect long enough, I think there are major opportunities to be had against this Tampa secondary. Look back to when Tyreek Hill went for 200 yards in the first quarter of a game last season. McVay is smart enough to realize that you can’t run against this Tampa front. Dallas used the same approach and threw over 50 times and stayed with them throughout the game. Despite being handcuffed by Jared Goff’s abilities, McVay and the Rams threw 51 times in their winning performance vs. the Bucs last season. I think this is the strategy that has to be used against Tampa.
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh -3: I think this is great value for Pittsburgh. The Steelers have absolutely dominated this matchup, specifically at Heinz Field. The last 2 years, Pittsburgh has outscored the Bengals 63-13 at Pittsburgh. Just like I thought last week was an over reaction to their week 1 win, I think the spread adjustment to -3 is an over reaction to the Steelers loss against Vegas. The Bengals offensive line has had major struggles again this year, as they rank dead last in sack % at 13.6%. The Steelers defense feasted on Joe Burrow last year when he played at Heinz as he was sacked 4 times and was pressured on 27% of his attempts. I think this is a situation of strength in Pittsburgh’s ability to rush the passer, and the Bengals’ inability to block it.
This problem is a continuation of last year’s struggles. Right now, TJ Watt is listed as questionable, but I believe that there is enough talent in the front seven to keep Burrow off his game. The Bengals have great talent at receiver, but I simply don’t think the offensive line can hold up long enough to utilize those weapons.
The Steelers offense still hasn’t looked right, but I think facing the Bengals should help them right the ship. The Bengals have a few talented players on the defensive line, but I see a lot of journeymen in the secondary. I’d like to see Najee Harris have continued involvement in the passing game, as I think that is his best attribute. Chase Claypool should have also get some more opportunities, as I always think that he’s under-utilized, but he is deadly in jump ball situations. Big Ben is also fighting an injury to his chest, but I would not expect to see him sidelined from that. I think if Roethlisberger just plays smart and avoids turnovers, the defense should win this game for them.
Random Thoughts:
- Wow…. What happened to my Saints last week? Yikes…..
- With the Patriots facing the Saints this week, at least one of my future bets will benefit! I’m honestly not sure who I like in that matchup. I think the under is probably the play.
- Carolina & Denver have been two huge surprises to me. They both rank top 5 in passer rating differential so far, and both were not good in that category in 2020. I’m not ready to crown either yet, but I’m marginally impressed.
- Seattle was close to being one of my picks. They’ve become a much better team to bet on the road, and they have owned the matchup against Minnesota in recent years. Russell Wilson is 7-0 vs. the Vikings, with 4 of the wins coming by double digits.
- I also like Baltimore. Detroit is entering auto-fade territory as that defense is helpless. No team blitzes more than Baltimore, and no quarterback struggles against the blitz like Jared Goff.
- Green Bay’s offense got back on track this week, but I don’t like the way the defense is playing. Rodgers is historically a solid bet as an underdog, but I don’t have much confidence against the 49ers offense.
- I typically play Philly as an underdog vs. Dallas. But this week I don’t have a strong opinion either way. Just hoping that Dak keeps piling those stats up, as my Comeback Player of the Year ticket grows in value.
- Kansas City has been a brutal team to bet as of late. However, I think they are due for a blowout, even against a Chargers team that has given them fits recently.
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