“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Houston |
Buffalo |
(7.26) |
(16.00) |
8.74 |
Houston |
|
NY Giants |
New Orleans |
(14.97) |
(7.00) |
7.97 |
New Orleans |
|
Jacksonville |
Cincinnati |
(13.59) |
(7.50) |
6.09 |
Cincinnati |
|
Tampa Bay |
New England |
1.24 |
7.00 |
5.76 |
New England |
|
Baltimore |
Denver |
3.98 |
(1.00) |
4.98 |
Baltimore |
|
Tennessee |
NY Jets |
10.58 |
7.00 |
3.58 |
Tennessee |
|
Arizona |
LA Rams |
(7.40) |
(4.00) |
3.40 |
LA Rams |
|
Indianapolis |
Miami |
(5.14) |
(2.00) |
3.14 |
Miami |
|
Cleveland |
Minnesota |
4.87 |
2.00 |
2.87 |
Cleveland |
|
Las Vegas |
LA Chargers |
(0.75) |
(3.50) |
2.75 |
Las Vegas |
|
Washington |
Atlanta |
3.52 |
1.50 |
2.02 |
Washington |
|
Kansas City |
Philadelphia |
5.05 |
7.00 |
1.95 |
Philadelphia |
|
Seattle |
San Francisco |
1.05 |
3.00 |
1.95 |
San Francisco |
|
Detroit |
Chicago |
(3.82) |
(2.50) |
1.32 |
Chicago |
|
Pittsburgh |
Green Bay |
(7.13) |
(6.50) |
0.63 |
Green Bay |
|
Carolina |
Dallas |
(3.42) |
(4.00) |
0.58 |
Carolina |
**2021 Money Zone Record is 9-12 ATS**
The Week 4 Money Zone picks are New England, Baltimore, Tennessee, LA Rams, Miami, Cleveland, Las Vegas, & Washington.
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 6-6 ATS in 2021**
Cleveland -2 @ Minnesota: Cleveland should have a major advantage running the ball this Sunday against the Vikings. Over the past two seasons, not many teams have run the ball as often or as efficiently as the Cleveland Browns. This is a classic strength vs. weakness matchup as the Browns have one of the NFL’s best offensive lines combined with two of the most talented running backs, and they go up against a rushing defense that has allowed gaping holes throughout this young season. Minnesota ranks 28th in yards allowed per carry at 4.8. The Vikings defensive issues don’t stop in the running game either. In fact, they’ve also surrendered a defensive passer rating of 119.60 in the 3 games and rank 31st in yards allowed per play. This should be a dream matchup for Baker Mayfield as he has excelled when using play action.
As I mentioned above, the Browns running game has been deadly so far in 2021. With a league high in average attempts per game, the Browns have kept their foot on the gas pedal. I think Kevin Stefanski should have some inside knowledge as to how to attack the holes in his former team’s defense. While Mike Zimmer theoretically has the same advantage, I think he is handcuffed by the talent deficiencies in his front seven. This has not been the same hard-nosed Vikings defense that we’ve been accustomed to see under Mike Zimmer’s reign. Their performance in these key categories are outlined below:
|
Opponent |
Total Rush Yards |
QB Rating Allowed |
|
Cincinnati |
149.00 |
128.80 |
|
Arizona |
103.00 |
117.60 |
|
Seattle |
106.00 |
111.20 |
Over the past few seasons, Minnesota has also been a team that rushes in the ball in high volumes. I think they will be hard pressed to do that in this contest as the Cleveland defensive line has been extremely stout, yielding just 3.1 yards per rush which ranks 4th in the NFL. Kirk Cousins has had some really bad games when faced with intense pressure, and he is facing a unit that just forced 9 sacks in the last game and has sacked quarterbacks on 12.37% of pass attempts (2nd in NFL). Myles Garrett has vaulted himself into defensive player of the year discussions, and I think Jadeveon Clowney has finally found himself a role as a complimentary pass rusher. Denzel Ward should also match up well with Justin Jefferson on the outside and hopefully keep him contained.
The Browns should have great value at under a field goal.
Tampa Bay @ New England +7: How can I not make a play on a matchup between Patriot legends?
I can’t pass up an opportunity to back a Bill Belichick coached team as a 7 point home underdog regardless of the opponent, and despite how bad they looked on Sunday. Tampa Bay maybe 5 times as talented as New England, but in this one night I’d be stunned if we didn’t see a hard-fought game that came down to the wire. In this specific matchup, I think we see Mac Jones throw a lot out of empty backfield sets. He’s faced a ton of pressure, so they will want him to get rid of the ball early. I think it’s also likely that we see the Patriots run a quick release passing game in a hurry-up setting. The Patriots ran a ton of offense from the hurry-up during the pre-season and situationally against Miami utilizing Mac Jones’ quick release.
Tampa has continued to see injuries pile up in the secondary, and this has been a major issue for them. Out of desperation, they signed an old, washed-up Richard Sherman. Despite having one of the best front sevens in the NFL, no team has given up more passing yards in 3 weeks than the Bucs. Teams aren’t willing to waste downs getting stuffed in the run game, and I think New England will take the same approach. The Belichick/McDaniels strength over the years has always been to game plan against the opponent’s weakness, and I think this is the case again on Sunday Night.
So how does the Patriots defense slow down Tom Brady? I think the Patriots defense has been surprisingly bad against the run so far in 2021. Luckily, Tampa has shown no commitment to the run and when they have decided to run, they’ve been horrible as they’ve averaged less than 4 yards per carry. Aside from the Rams, they have played against two of the league’s weaker defenses in Dallas and Atlanta. With Tampa’s lack of a running threat, I think Belichick has some freedom to get creative on defense. I’d expect to see extra defensive backs and I’d look for them to mix in the occasional blitz up the middle. I’d also look for the better Patriot pass rushers (Uche, Winovich, Judon) to line up over center. Tampa’s interior line is a lot weaker in the middle than on the outside, and pressure up the middle has often been Brady’s kryptonite.
With all that said, I have major worries about Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. I think they are the two weapons that the Patriots simply can’t match up with. They will certainly need career performances from their safeties Adrian Phillips, Devin McCourty, and Kyle Dugger. Looking back to 2019, the Patriots defense shut down the Mahomes Chiefs and the McVay Rams in back to back games. I point to these games specifically, as the talent was clearly in favor of the offenses, but the Patriots defense won these battles with strategy and execution. I think Bill has saved some special plays that could even catch Brady off guard.
With the emotions running so high for Brady, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sloppy start or a few errant throws early in the game. He hasn’t been immune to throwing a pick or two in big games like this, and no team has been more opportunistic in causing interceptions than the Patriots. In 2020 they led the NFL in picks, and are 2nd so far in 2021. Everyone in the country will be picking Tampa in this one, which is why I feel confident betting New England +7.
Baltimore +1 @ Denver: I can’t deny that Denver has had an impressive start to the 2021 season. Teddy Bridgewater’s entire career has been efficient and largely mistake free. But I can’t help but question the strength of the schedule so far for the Broncos. They have feasted on what could likely be the 3 worst teams in the NFL in the Giants, Jaguars, and the Jets. I think it will certainly be an adjustment to face the Ravens after this initial cream puff of a schedule. Baltimore’s offense is not like any other in the NFL with the complex blocking schemes and dynamic runner in Lamar Jackson. Jackson has not faced the Broncos as a starter (he only played a handful of snaps against them as a rookie in 2018). I think this is especially dangerous when a team is seeing him for the first time and has to adjust to his speed.
Defensively, Baltimore loves to bring the blitz. In 2020, they led the NFL in blitz % and are up close to the top in the early start to 2021. Last season, Teddy struggled against both Tampa and New Orleans (two blitz-heavy defenses) and went 0-4.
|
Opponent |
QB Rating |
# of Blitzes |
Sacks |
Result |
|
@ Tampa Bay |
83.2 |
14.00 |
5.00 |
L 17-31 |
|
@ New Orleans |
128.3 |
12.00 |
1.00 |
L 27-24 |
|
Tampa Bay |
98.6 |
10.00 |
1.00 |
L 23-46 |
|
New Orleans |
44.8 |
9.00 |
1.00 |
L 7-33 |
Certainly, it wasn’t all his fault, and he even played relatively well at New Orleans. But I think Baltimore runs a similar defensive scheme that has given Bridgewater problems in the past. I’d expect to see the Ravens send lots of pressure as defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has been known to do.
I am also not sold on the Broncos offensive line. The running game remains mediocre in yards averaged per carry, and I still have questions about Garret Bolles at left tackle. He’s played well over the past year, but he was an unmitigated disaster to start his career. The Ravens defensive line should be able to generate pressure and cause problems for Bridgewater.
Lamar Jackson has been an outstanding bet as an underdog in his career. Since 2019, the Ravens are 6-2 in underdog situations. Whenever I pick the Ravens as an underdog I make it a point to note that Justin Tucker is a huge factor. It’s very comforting to know that you have him kicking, especially in the Mile High air. His kick from last week probably would have been good from 75 in Denver!
Arizona @ LA Rams -4: The Rams defense has dominated Kyler Murray in his young career. He is 0-4 against LA and has lost these 4 games by a total of 121-66. This also includes a head to head loss to John Wolford…. (If you were a member last year, you remember who that is!)….
I just think this continues to be a bad matchup for Arizona. I’m not sold that they can win against bigger, tougher, more physical teams. Murray has yet to post a 100+ qb rating against this Rams defense, and in these 4 games, he’s only managed to rush for a grand total of 46 yards. His performances are summarized below:
|
Date |
QB Rating |
TD / INT |
Rushing Yards |
Result |
|
12/1/2019 |
56.4 |
0/1 |
28.00 |
L 7-37 |
|
12/29/2019 |
81.9 |
2/2 |
– |
L 24-31 |
|
12/6/2020 |
80.4 |
3/1 |
15.00 |
L 28-38 |
|
1/3/2021 |
95.6 |
0/0 |
3.00 |
L 7-18 |
I think this week, the Rams running game finally gets going. While Stafford and the receivers have been on fire, they haven’t run the ball as well as McVay would like. They face an Arizona defense that has given up 5.4 yards per rush which leaves them at 31st in the NFL. I’d expect that to be the focus for the Rams as they build on their commanding win over Tampa from last week and look to solidify themselves as the team to beat in the NFL.
Random Thoughts:
- Houston is clearly being valued in Vegas as the worst team in the NFL, but I think 16 points is too many. I wouldn’t touch either side.
- New Orleans bounced back nicely vs. the Patriots. They should take care of business in their first real home game.
- Indy has been a major disappointment to start the season. Miami should be a strong play in the Money Zone this week, as they look to get back on track.
- The Eagles couldn’t play much worse than they did on Monday Night. They should have some opportunities to run more against KC, but I’d be very worried about their defense. Mahomes desperately needs a win and should have a big day against an Eagles secondary that has given up some big plays.
- It’s hard to have any faith in the Steelers offense at this point. Big Ben looks like he needs to hang it up. That being said, 6.5 points feels like a lot of points for Pittsburgh.
- I’ve faded Garoppolo against Seattle multiple times with moderate success. I think this week would probably another good opportunity to do that.
- The Chargers/Raiders game looks to be an important one in the AFC. I was not expected to see that coming into the year.
- Chicago/Detroit is another very ugly divisional matchup. I can’t pick a side in that one…
Best of Luck Everyone!