I’m generally not a huge regular season prop bettor, but I think I’ve identified a high value opportunity in the Tampa Bay vs New England Sunday Night showdown.
Mac Jones over 25.5 Completions (Odds per Draftkings):
I absolutely love the over in this one. Tampa Bay’s run defense is phenomenal. It is virtually impossible to get any traction on the ground because of the size and talent on the interior of this defensive line and the speed at linebacker. Every opponent that the Bucs have faced so far has not even bothered to run the ball. Here’s a look at the average number of pass attempts and completions allowed per game:
|
Team |
Opponent Pass Attempts Per Game |
Opponent Completions Allowed per Game |
|
Tampa Bay Bucs |
48.0 (32nd) |
34.70 (32nd) |
|
LA Rams |
43.7 (31st) |
30.7 (31st) |
|
Dallas |
43.3 (30th) |
29.3 (29th) |
Like I mentioned in my week 4 writeup, I think the Patriots throw early and often, and likely out of the hurry up offense. Mac Jones has excelled in the short, quick passing game which should rack up completions. The Bucs will likely be without 2 of their 3 starting corners, which should entice Josh McDaniels to put the ball in Mac Jones’ hands more often than not.
Because Jones faced such intense pressure against the Saints, I think it will be even more of a point of emphasis to deliver the ball to the outside even quicker. Shotgun and empty sets should be the focus to really spread out this big, tough physical front and allow for easier completions.
In Jones’ 3 starts, he has completed 29, 22, and 30 passes. The game in which he completed 22 passes was a game against the Jets that was non-competitive and the run game was the main driver of the offensive success. I extremely doubt the ability and desire of the Patriots to run the ball on Sunday night. I think this bet has multiple pathways to success. If the Patriots get off to an early lead, it will likely be the result of the passing game, and of course if they get behind, they will have no choice but to try and throw their way back into the game.
Well… that’s all I have. Good Luck!