“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
New England |
Houston |
2.66 |
9.00 |
6.34 |
Houston |
|
LA Rams |
Seattle |
(2.93) |
2.50 |
5.43 |
Seattle |
|
NY Jets |
Atlanta |
(7.63) |
(3.00) |
4.63 |
Atlanta |
|
Tennessee |
Jacksonville |
8.59 |
4.00 |
4.59 |
Tennessee |
|
NY Giants |
Dallas |
(11.09) |
(7.00) |
4.09 |
Dallas |
|
Miami |
Tampa Bay |
(6.09) |
(10.00) |
3.91 |
Miami |
|
Detroit |
Minnesota |
(10.68) |
(8.00) |
2.68 |
Minnesota |
|
Green Bay |
Cincinnati |
0.34 |
3.00 |
2.66 |
Cincinnati |
|
Cleveland |
LA Chargers |
0.12 |
(2.00) |
2.12 |
Cleveland |
|
Chicago |
Las Vegas |
(6.73) |
(5.00) |
1.73 |
Las Vegas |
|
Philadelphia |
Carolina |
(5.03) |
(3.50) |
1.53 |
Carolina |
|
San Francisco |
Arizona |
(4.21) |
(5.50) |
1.29 |
San Francisco |
|
Denver |
Pittsburgh |
(2.07) |
(1.00) |
1.07 |
Pittsburgh |
|
New Orleans |
Washington |
2.73 |
2.00 |
0.73 |
New Orleans |
|
Buffalo |
Kansas City |
(1.97) |
(2.50) |
0.53 |
Buffalo |
|
Indianapolis |
Baltimore |
(6.01) |
(6.50) |
0.49 |
Indianapolis |
The Week 5 Money Zone picks are Seattle, Atlanta, Tennessee, Dallas, Minnesota, Miami, Cincinnati, & Cleveland.
**2021 Money Zone Record is 13-16 ATS**
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Shorestein Says Picks of the Week (includes Props) are 10-7 (58.82%) ATS in 2021**
Detroit @ Minnesota -8: I’ve said it a million times, but Kirk Cousins feasts on bad defenses. He’s never the quarterback that I want to back against strong defense and solid competition, but I’ll support him against below average pass defenses without hesitation. The evidence is clear, he has routed Detroit’s defense in his tenure with Minnesota. And this year, you could make an argument that the Lions pass defense is even worse than it has been in the last 5 seasons. Here is how Cousins has performed against Detroit since he got to Minnesota:
|
Season |
QB Rating |
TD / INT |
Yards / Attempt |
Result |
|
2018 |
93.90 |
1/1 |
7.45 |
W 24-9 |
|
2018 |
137.90 |
3/0 |
9.04 |
W 27-9 |
|
2019 |
141.50 |
4/0 |
9.94 |
W 42-30 |
|
2019 |
111.40 |
1/0 |
8.07 |
W 20-7 |
|
2020 |
141.70 |
3/0 |
11.00 |
W 34-20 |
|
2020 |
127.60 |
3 /0 |
10.13 |
W 37-35 |
Cousins is 6-0 against Detroit and would have covered an 8-point spread in all but 1 of these matchups. The Vikings offense has averaged just under 31 points in their matchups with Detroit under Kirk Cousins. The path to a close game starts to become unreasonable when you’re allowing the following splits as a defense:
|
Passer Rating Def. Allowed |
Points Allowed / Game |
Yards / Play Allowed |
Yards / Pass Att Allowed |
|
116.40 (30th) |
29.80 (29th) |
6.60 (31st) |
9.8 (32nd) |
While the Vikings defense has certainly been no prize to start the year, they have started to generate more pressure. They rank 4th in sack percentage at 9.22%, and they have clearly benefited from the return of Danielle Hunter who is responsible for 5 of those sacks. They’ve also performed much better on defense as a home team allowing just an average of 15.5 points against two very good offenses in Seattle and Cleveland.
As you’d expect, a Jared Goff-led team has struggled with turnovers as they average over 1 per game so far in the young season. Minnesota has taken care of the ball very well as they typically do.
Minnesota’s running game has been relatively quiet in 2021. They’ve faced some tough teams to run against, but I think they should be able to run effectively against a mediocre Detroit front when they choose to. But when you’re facing a pass defense as bad as the Lions, I think every snap that doesn’t end up in a drop back is a missed opportunity. Thielen and Jefferson should both be in line for huge days.
Cleveland +2 @ LA Chargers: I’m not sure I’ve ever taken Cleveland 2 weeks in a row, but I continue to believe the value is there. I think you’ll see a lot of the betting public overreact to the Chargers offensive performance on Monday Night against Vegas. Vegas’ secondary is an absolute mess, and they continue to play some of the simplest schemes in the NFL. I wasn’t surprised at all to see Herbert put together a strong passing performance.
On the other hand, Cleveland’s defense is turning into a monster. Myles Garrett should have a field day against some of these Chargers tackles who struggled at times containing the Raiders’ Max Crosby and Yannick Ngakue. The Browns defense has been the 2nd best in yards allowed per rush, and they rank 4th in pressure percentage. This is an unbelievable combination of run & pass stopping ability.
Defensively, the Chargers have been one of the least effective teams stopping the run. Again, I think they were very fortunate to go against Vegas this week whose offensive line is also in shambles, and they started a hobbled Josh Jacobs who never really had a chance to get going. They also weren’t tested as they jumped out to an early lead and the Raiders were forced to play catch up and pass. This will be a complete 180 to what they face this week, as Cleveland’s offensive line and stable of running backs are among the league’s best. Kevin Stefansky continues to call in a huge amount of running plays as they average 35 attempts per game which ranks 1st in the NFL. The Chargers run defense ranks 30th in yards allowed per rush at 5.3. I’d like to see the Browns pound the running game all afternoon.
Cleveland has been an excellent road underdog the past 2 seasons as they are 5-2 ATS since 2020. The Chargers have not been a good home favorite during this same time frame as they are 4-8 ATS.
Tennessee -4 @ Jacksonville: I think this is a perfect revenge game for the Titans as they lost to the helpless Jets last week, and the Jaguars are coming off a heart-breaking loss that they should have won on Thursday night vs. Cincinnati. I think Urban Meyer could quit on the team any day now, and they clearly have leadership problems in the locker room that could certainly affect the team’s performance.
On the field, the Jaguars pass defense has been equally as bad as Detroit’s. I think as a rule of thumb, it’s typically a solid strategy to simply fade bad pass defenses. Right now, Jacksonville ranks 31st in passer rating defense at 116.80. Here is an interesting comparison of how poor pass defense negatively correlates to success against the spread:
|
Team |
Passer Rating Def Rank |
W/L Record ATS |
|
Philadelphia |
28th |
1-3 (33%) |
|
Indianapolis |
29th |
2-2 (50%) |
|
Detroit |
30th |
2-2 (50%) |
|
Jacksonville |
31st |
1-3 (33%) |
|
Atlanta |
32nd |
1-3 (33%) |
|
Combined Record |
7-13 (35%) ATS |
|
I also expanded this analysis to 2020, and found much of the same results:
|
Team |
Passer Rating Rank |
W/L Record ATS |
|
Philadelphia |
28th |
6-10 (37.50%) |
|
NY Jets |
29th |
6-10 (37.50%) |
|
Jacksonville |
30th |
7-9 (43.80%) |
|
Houston |
31st |
6-10 (37.50%) |
|
Detroit |
32nd |
7-9 (43.8%) |
|
Combined Record |
32 – 48 (40%) |
I think the Titans should still be able to have success throwing on this bad defense, regardless of if Julio Jones or AJ Brown suit up. Josh Reynolds, Nick Westbrook, and Chester Rogers should be more than sufficient to get open for Ryan Tannehill. I think you’ll see a lot of play-action as the Jaguars will likely stack the box for Derrick Henry. I think Henry, as usual, will be used to hammer away in the second half. My approach would be to throw as much as possible in the 1st half.
Miami +10 @ Tampa Bay: Miami has been a major disappointment losing three straight after they beat the Patriots on the road in week 1. However, I think they are a difficult matchup for the Bucs and present value as a double digit underdog.
On offense, Miami has a ton of skill and speed on the outside which should give Tampa’s depleted secondary fits. It sounds like Jamel Dean will likely return on Sunday, but they are likely to remain without Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis. Miami has no desire to run the ball as they rank just 28th in rushing attempts on the season. I think this works to their advantage as I continue to say any time you rush the ball against this Tampa front it is a wasted down at best. The Dolphins should utilize the quick-passing game like what the Patriots did last week, as much of the Miami coaching staff comes from New England. The Dolphins have had major problems on the offensive line, so I think short passes to Jaylen Waddle will be a focal part of the offense.
On the defensive side, the Dolphins have a solid secondary. Xavien Howard has had success against Tom Brady in the past including a 2-interception game. I like him to matchup with Mike Evans to limit his opportunities. The Dolphins would be helped greatly if Byron Jones were able to suit up as he is currently questionable with an injury. However, they have solid cornerback depth if he is unable to go. Overall, I think Miami’s weaknesses are against the run. We have seen that Tampa has no desire to run the ball, which should work to Miami’s advantage. I’d also look for Brian Flores to deploy a similar defensive strategy to what the Patriots did against Brady. Flores also has had experience coaching against Brady on a daily basis at practice, and I think this should give him some insight as to what can work and what doesn’t. I think most importantly, he’ll need to change the strategy throughout the game.
Tampa has played close games with every opponent so far. Even the Atlanta game was within 3 points in the 4th quarter, until Matt Ryan threw back to back pick 6’s. I think 10 points is far too many against Miami this week.
Random Thoughts:
- The Mac Jones prop bet was relatively sweat free…. I’ll try to incorporate a prop bet each week. I’ve already got my eyes on one, but will plan on posting later this week.
- Great matchup on Thursday night with the Rams/Seahawks. Seattle as a home underdog has typically been a no-brainer for me. But I think it’s a dangerous game as the Rams are coming off of a divisional loss, and I still believe they are the most talented team in football.
- Atlanta in the Money Zone is a scary proposition for me. It seems all I’ve done is rip them to pieces and now I am in the unenviable position of rooting for them as a favorite…..
- Dallas has been a major surprise to me. I knew they were loaded on offense, but Trevon Diggs is making an early push for defensive player of the year. Guy is absolutely balling on the outside.
- Cincinnati would likely be my 5th pick if I had to choose. I like how strong the defensive line has been, and Joe Burrow looks to be fully back and dialed in. I continue to have questions about Green Bay’s defense outside of Jaire Alexander. I think the loss of Zedarius Smith is a huge one for the Packers.
- Buffalo has looked great the past few weeks, but their schedule is about to get a lot tougher. Steve Spagnolo has owned Josh Allen so far in their previous matchups. If I were to bet this game, my money would be on KC.
- Carolina is likely a rough matchup for Philly. I don’t think Jalen Hurts will fare well against this tough Panthers defense.
Best of Luck Everyone!