Ahmad Gardner to Win Defensive Rookie of the Year (-110)
I’ve decided to return to the futures markets of the NFL Awards, an area in which I had great success in 2021. I think right now, Gardner has a strangle hold on the Def. ROTY award. He has been the young face of the defense that has completely turned around the team and has generated a buzz in the AFC. Sauce Gardner currently leads the league with 13 passes defensed and he also has 2 interceptions. One thing that you want to remember about the NFL awards, is that they are given out by sports writers. In a lot of cases, the “story” behind a player is often more important than the actual on-field performance. I think Gardner certainly fills in those boxes, as he already has a number of memorable moments to the season:
- After a strong game and an upset win at Lambeau Field, Gardner was seen taunting the crowd while wearing a cheese head.
- Just last week, Gardner sealed a victory over the unanimously considered best team in football with a 4th down pass defense on a bomb thrown by Josh Allen.
- Gardner played a significant role in slowing down the explosive Miami Dolphins in a 40-17 blowout win. He also added an INT in this notable game.
If you look around for mid-season NFL polls done by writers, analysts, and executives, Gardner has been the unanimous choice for this award. If he’s able to stay healthy, it’s unlikely that you’ll get better value than the current odds of (-110). I think Gardner is a runaway choice in this category, much like Micah Parsons was at this time last season.
Risks to Consider: Besides the obvious injury risk, I think Aidan Hutchinson of the Lions would have to have a monster 2nd half of the season to overtake Gardner. Hutchinson certainly has the talent to make a push, but I think because he plays on such a bad defense in Detroit, it’s unlikely he can do enough to overtake Gardner. Tariq Woolen is a name that pops up on the Seattle defense, but I don’t think he’s a true threat as he is relatively an unknown name on a team where all the award focus is on Pete Carroll for Coach of the Year, and Geno Smith for Comeback Player of the Year.
Tyreek Hill to Win Offensive Player of the Year (+300)
The Cheetah is in the driver’s seat for this award, and he still maintains great value at 3/1 at most sports books. Offensive Player of the Year has quickly turned into the best Non-Quarterback in the league, as running backs and wide receivers have won this award for 4 out of the last 5 years (Cooper Kupp, Derrick Henry, Michael Thomas, & Todd Gurley).
Hill can certainly make the case that he fits that description. He’s currently on pace to break Calvin Johnson’s receiving yardage record of 1,964 yards. Hill is also 237 yards clear of the next receiver on the list (Justin Jefferson). I think if Hill makes a run at the record, it’ll be very difficult not to give him this award, as no running backs are currently dominating games the way he has.
Risks to Consider: Injury of course is #1… The other risk to consider is if the Eagles finish with the best record in the NFL, and Jalen Hurts doesn’t win MVP. If someone like Patrick Mahomes edges out Hurts in the MVP race, the writers might feel obligated to vote in Hurts as the offensive player of the year. I think that scenario is the biggest threat to Hill for the award. Justin Jefferson is a phenomenal receiver and he could certainly have a huge 2nd half, but I think Hill has built up enough of a lead to hold him off.
I bet both of these tickets, and I was also able to parlay them together at (+663). If things go as planned, this can be a huge ticket to cash in February. Fingers Crossed!
Best of Luck!
