“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
San Francisco |
Philadelphia |
(3.43) |
(2.50) |
0.93 |
Philadelphia |
|
Cincinnati |
Kansas City |
(2.73) |
(1.00) |
1.73 |
Kansas City |
**2022 Season Money Zone Record 59-46 ATS (56.19%)**
No Money Zone Games.
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week were 38-30 ATS (55.88% for 2022)**
San Francisco @ Philadelphia -2.5: I think this is the game that just about everyone has expected and waited for all year. By far, these were the two most dominant, complete teams in the NFC. I’ve been on Philly since they traded for AJ Brown on draft night, and I think at this point, I am riding them until the end. Their talent on the front line and ability to create pressure is second to no one. I think this game plays out similar to last week’s Niners/Cowboys matchup in that it is a low scoring, defensive dominated game. I think Brock Purdy finally shows his youth and inexperience. He saw immense pressure against the Cowboys and held up relatively well, while it was Dak Prescott who committed the critical turnovers. I think the road environment in Philadelphia is the difference this week. Purdy has thrown a lot of interceptable balls in the playoffs, but teams have not capitalized on these mistakes. I’m also concerned about Christian McCaffery’s health, given how reluctant they were to give him the ball down the stretch.
When the Eagles have the ball, I think they have a better chance of running the ball than Dallas did. Pollard was effective in his limited opportunities, before he exited the game with injury. I think the Eagles will stay committed to the run, and I think they have far more options in the passing game than the Cowboys who were pretty much Cee Dee Lamb or bust. Jalen Hurts has shown that he can use his legs, but he can also mix in AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert with great efficiency. San Francisco’s defense is phenomenal, but I think the Eagles have the tools to keep it in check. I think this is the Eagles year, and they advance to the Super Bowl behind their dominant offensive and defensive lines.
Cincinnati @ Kansas City -1: My lean is on Kansas City. There’s a lot of chatter out there that Mahomes’ injury is not as bad as initially thought. I think the line movement on this game agrees with that sentiment. I think the Chiefs will certainly test the Bengals banged up offensive line significantly more than Buffalo did. I hated Buffalo’s defensive approach as they largely just sat back and let Burrow pick them apart. This strategy, just simply, isn’t in Steve Spagnuolo’s DNA… he’s going to play aggressively on the outside with his corners and send lots of blitz pressure. I think there’s a greater likelihood that this strategy will be more effective than laying back.
The first time the Chiefs possess the ball will be must watch TV… Regardless of Mahomes’ mobility I think the gameplan will be more focused on the quick passing game. Even if his ankle looks good, it only takes one hit to set him back for the rest of the game. I think you’ll see guys like Kadarius Toney see lots of targets early and often. I’d also look for Isaiah Pacheco to be a significant factor. The Ravens had excellent success on the ground with JK Dobbins in the Wildcard round. The last time the Chiefs faced the Bengals they played it without Joe Thuney, who is one of their premier run blockers. Pacheco should get lots of opportunities between the tackles as he probably has the freshest legs left out of all the running backs left at this point. Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy are two of the best offensive minds in the sport, and I think they will find a way to score points even if Mahomes’ mobility is limited.
It’s hard for me to envision Mahomes losing 4 consecutive games to any team… I think they finally get it done this week….
Same Game Parlays: At this point, hopefully you’ve locked in some good profit for the season. I think this week and next week are good opportunities to take some swings at some low %, but high reward tickets. Last week, we were 1 prop short on two tickets.
Eagles / Niners: +370 (7 picks)
-Eagles Moneyline
-Jalen Hurts over 199.5 passing yards
-McCaffery under 84.5 rushing yards
-Samuel under 74.5 receiving yards
-Eagles over 19.5 points
-Niners under 30.5 points
-Miles Sanders over 34.5 rushing yards
Chiefs / Bengals: +425 (6 picks)
-Chiefs Moneyline
-Pacheco over 44.5 yards rushing
-Burrow over 229.5 yards passing
-Chase over 69.5 yards receiving
-Chiefs over 19.5 points
-K. Toney over 19.5 yards receiving
Parlay of both together +2367
Bonus Longshot Ticket: +1300
- K Toney over 59.5 receiving yards
- Pacheco over 74.5 rushing yards
Good Luck Everyone!
