“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
NY Giants |
Philadelphia |
(11.10) |
(7.50) |
3.60 |
Philadelphia |
|
Dallas |
San Francisco |
(2.00) |
(3.50) |
1.50 |
Dallas |
|
Jacksonville |
Kansas City |
(7.40) |
(8.50) |
1.10 |
Jacksonville |
|
Cincinnati |
Buffalo |
(4.70) |
(5.00) |
0.30 |
Cincinnati |
**2022 Regular Season Money Zone Record 58-46 ATS (55.76%)**
Philadelphia is the only Money Zone pick this week.
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week were 37-29 ATS (56.06% for 2022)**
NY Giants @ Philadelphia -7.5: I believe the Eagles are undervalued at this number. Philly was far and away the best team in the NFL before Jalen Hurts went down. During that time, they faced some adversity and were thrown off their game with Gardner Mindshew under center. When Hurts returned, he clearly had some rust to shake off, and the entire offense didn’t look the same. With some extra rest and additional time for preparation, I think you’ll see the Eagles at their best on Saturday.
Conversely, the Giants come in considered a hot team with their road win over the Vikings. I think last week’s win for the Giants was more about the Vikings’ weaknesses on defense. Minnesota was a team that struggled to stop anyone in the pass game for much of the season, and it finally caught up with them. The Giants offense ran right threw them with very little resistance. This simply will not happen as they face the #1 pass defense in yards/att, #4 in passer rating defense, and #1 in sack percentage. Philly’s only defensive weakness this season was their inability to stop the run for a portion of the season. During this time, they had suffered some key injuries (Jordan Davis) on the interior defensive line, and struggled to overcome them. They’ve also added veterans Lindval Joseph and Ndomekong Suh to mitigate that deficiency and I expect it to work.
I think the Eagles talent at wide receiver is a major problem for the Giants. With the Giants sitting at #1 in the league in blitz pressure, they put a lot of pressure on their young corners to hold up in man coverage against two of the NFL’s best pass catchers. I think it’s very likely that the Eagles see big days from both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. While the Giants’ high volume blitz scheme works well against a lot of teams, the Eagles have the offensive line talent to pick it up. Offensive tackle Lane Johnson has missed time since Christmas for the Eagles, but he has pledged to play this weekend. He’s a staple on that line, and should give Hurts the time and confidence that he needs.
Lastly, the Giants run defense had significant struggles of its own this year. At 5.2 yards allowed per rush, they ranked just 30th in the NFL. The Eagles are the last team that you want to see with a struggling run defense. Philly’s offensive line and dynamic rushing attack should remain front and center on Saturday evening. I think they should be able to move the ball at will in either way that they choose.
Cincinnati @ Buffalo -5: The Bengals downfall a season ago was its offensive line. They spent significant resources in the offseason to address these needs to completely reconstruct that unit. For the most part, that strategy worked as Burrow was protected much better for the majority of the season. However, the Bengals offensive linemen have started dropping like flies. It’s looking likely that Cincinnati will be down its 3 best offensive linemen including both starting tackles. Joe Burrow was one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the history of the NFL last year, and there’s a strong indication that he’ll be put in a compromised position on Sunday. For this reason, you’re seeing a 5 point spread which would probably not be the case if the Bengals had their full complement of blockers. I can’t overlook this problem and think this is clearly the key to the game.
Buffalo squandered countless opportunities against a weak Miami team last week that was starting its third string QB. I have confidence that Buffalo will rebound offensively and score into the 30’s. When Josh Allen is playing within himself and not trying to do too much, there isn’t a better QB in the league. Buffalo is too explosive for the Bengals defense, and I think that will show on Sunday. There are few teams that have an answer for Stefon Diggs’ quickness and route running. Cincinnati’s cornerbacks are overmatched. I think Diggs will be open at will, and the Bills would be wise to feed him 12+ targets. Eli Apple was exposed several times against Baltimore against a very limited passing attack. I’d expect Ken Dorsey to find ways to attack him and test his confidence some more.
Other Thoughts:
KC vs. Jax: I’m leaning Jacksonville on this very large spread. Kansas City has shown multiple instances where it comes out asleep in these divisional round home games. They have a tendency to play tight in the 1st quarter/half, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see that again. While I believe KC is definitely the superior team, I think Jacksonville can present them with some problems to keep this a 1 score game. Christian Kirk had a huge game in their first matchup, and KC has had problems stopping the #1 receivers of their opponents all year. For this reason, I’m steering clear of this game.
DAL vs. SF: I think this is finally the week that Brock Purdy faces some adversity. Purdy is surrounded by one of the most talented units in football, so it’s not surprising that he has had great success. To compound that further, he has faced one of the weakest schedules of defenses since he took over:
|
Purdy opponents |
Passer Rating Def Rank |
|
Miami |
26th |
|
Tampa Bay |
28th |
|
Seattle |
17th |
|
Washington |
18th |
|
Las Vegas |
32nd |
|
Arizona |
31st |
|
Seattle |
17th |
It’s undeniable that he has played well, but he hasn’t faced a test like he will this Sunday. Dallas is ranked #1 in quarterback pressures, and #1 in turnovers forced. They also have the 2nd highest sack % in the NFL. Micah Parsons was all over the field against the Bucs. I think Dallas is in a great position to cover a +3.5 spread….. But……. Their kicker just missed 4 consecutive extra points…… I think it’s hard to back Dallas in a tight game given their inabilities in the kicking game, and they face an enormous test vs. the San Francisco defense as well. I think this is a low-scoring game, but I’m not sure I like Dallas unless it is played at closer to a TD.
Best of Luck!
