2022 NFL Season – Philly Special

The Philadelphia Eagles are a team that I have had my eye on in the futures markets. This is a squad that had an extremely impressive finish to the 2021 season as they went 6-1 in meaningful games down the stretch (disregarding week 18 in which they rested virtually all starters). During this time frame, they outscored opponents by an average of close to 11 points per game, scoring over 27 points and allowing just over 16 points.

Philadelphia Eagles over 9.5 Regular Season Wins (-120)

While they struggled in their Wildcard week loss to Tampa Bay, they should be in a very strong position in the NFC going into 2022 as they have made some significant upgrades to their roster.

Key Additions:

Offense:

The Eagles were one of the most active teams on draft night. They acquired a top 5 receiving talent in AJ Brown from the Titans via trade. I think that this was a no-brainer for the team as wide receiver was likely their largest position of need. Brown gives them one of the NFL’s most physically imposing and dominant receivers. When he is healthy, there are few corners in the league that can hold up against him one on one. We saw him take over for some huge games in Tennessee with a limited passing game and quarterback. What’s most impressive is that he had his biggest performances in the most critical games:

I think he immediately becomes the #1 wide receiver on the team, and that slots in Devonta Smith as a very high end #2 target. Smith has elite quickness and separation and should be a reliable option for Jalen Hurts as he continues to progress as a wideout.

Defense:

The Eagles added two of the most high profile defensive players in the draft in 1^st round pick Jordan Davis (DT), and 3^rd round pick Nakobe Dean (ILB). Davis should have an immediate impact on the interior defensive line as he is one of the most freakishly huge/athletic prospects that we have seen in years. He should fit in the rotation as he joins Javon Hargraves and Fletcher Cox which should give the Eagles one of the strongest defensive lines in the NFL. Dean should get lots of playing time right away as he has NFL speed and inside linebacker is certainly an area where Philly is looking to improve.

Philadelphia also added a productive edge rusher in Haason Reddick in free agency who has accumulated double digit sack totals for 2 consecutive seasons. I think this was an excellent under the radar signing, which should upgrade its 2021 pass rush considerably. Darius Slay quietly had a great season in 2021, as he shut down some of the best receivers in the NFL. Recently signed James Bradberry is a quality veteran addition to the secondary, and I think will be an effective #2 corner.

I expect this Eagles defense to be very strong in 2022.

The Schedule

I think the schedule is very favorable for the Eagles this season. I have broken down the schedule into three sections, to outline the path to 10 wins or more.

Weaker Opponents: Philly must go 4-2 or better

I classified teams as “weak” if their Vegas season win total was 7 or lower. I think it’s realistic to expect Philly to go 4-2 or better against these opponents. In 2021, they had a very strong record against poor opponents. They went 7-1 against teams that were below .500.

“Winnable Games”: Philly must go 4-3 or better

I defined “winnable games” as situations in which the Eagles are a projected favorite, or the spread would be a FG or lower.

The main advantage here, is that the Eagles are the home team in 5 of these games. I believe that a 4-3 record against these teams is probable.

Tough Opponents: Philly must Go 2-2 or better

I think the path to .500 in this situation is to split with the Cowboys, and get 1 win either on the road at Indy, or at home vs. Green Bay. I expect both the Cowboys and the Packers to take a small step back from last year due to some roster changes that they’ve had at key positions.

Summary:

I think the Eagles have dodged a bullet in that they have avoided a large chunk of the class of the NFC. I expect the Rams, 49ers, and Bucs to be at the top of NFC and they are no where to be found on the Eagles schedule. Philadelphia in my opinion has built one of the most balanced rosters in the NFL. They have a physically imposing offensive line & running game which is now paired with an athletic set of skilled pass catchers. Defensively, they have arguably the best interior defensive line in the NFL, combined with quality edge rushers, and a shutdown corner. Questions remain at linebacker and safety, but I think those are some of the least important positions on the field in the modern day NFL.

Finally, the biggest question mark is the dependability of Jalen Hurts. I think he has shown that he is a capable quarterback, and he really showcased his running threat in the back half of last season. I think the addition of AJ Brown will make his life a lot easier, and I have reason to believe that he will show improvements going into his third year. If he fails, I think Gardner Minshew is a solid backup to have. He has shown that he can play winning football with a far inferior talent pool. I think the talent on this roster can carry the quarterback to 10 wins regardless of who that may be by the time the season ends.

Good Luck!