“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Kansas City |
Philadelphia |
(1.53) |
(1.50) |
0.03 |
Philadelphia |
**2022 Season Money Zone Record 59-46 ATS (56.19%)**
No Money Zone Games.
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week were 40-30 ATS (57.14% for 2022)**
Like the past several years, I don’t see much value on taking a side in the game. I think there’s a great argument to be made for both teams as I think they have clearly been the best two teams all year. However, I have targeted a number of player props.
Overall Feel on the Game:
First thing’s first, I think Mahomes’ ankle will be a relative non-factor. He’ll be almost 3 weeks removed from his initial injury, and I think his mobility will be better than what he had to work with in the AFC Championship. What’s more concerning for the Chiefs is who will be catching the ball from Mahomes. With Hardman already ruled out, and the combination of Kadarius Toney / JuJu Smith-Schuster shaky at best, the Chiefs are going to be desperate for contributors in the passing game. This is why I have targeted player props on Valdez-Scantling (the only healthy, reliable receiver) and Jerrick McKinnon (the best receiving threat out of the backfield). Travis Kelce has seemed to put his back issues to rest, as he looked relatively healthy the last time we saw him, and I think his condition should only improve with the extra week off.
The consensus opinion out there is that Philly is the far-superior team in the trenches on both sides of the ball. While I agree with the sentiment, I think the perceived gap between the two teams is far bigger than in actuality. Kansas City’s offensive line has been excellent this season. I think if you combine the talent that they have on the offensive line with Andy Reid’s coaching advantage, they should have a great chance to neutralize the best pass rush in football. I look back to what Kansas City did against San Francisco way back in week 7. At the time, no team had an answer for Nick Bosa and the 49ers pass rush, but the Chiefs had a phenomenal game plan as they got rid of the ball fast and managed to throw for 400+ yards en route to 44 points! Mahomes was hit just once in that game, and only pressured on 14% of drop backs. I think this shows the flexibility of the Kansas City offense this season. Back when the offense was focused exclusively on Hill and Kelce, the Chiefs were at a disadvantage in games like this. I think it’s very unlikely we see a situation like the Tampa Bay Super Bowl where Mahomes is running for his life and holding onto the ball for too long.
Although Philadelphia has been a phenomenal defense, they have been exposed a few times this season. Two games jump out to me: at Detroit and at Dallas. Both games were played in-doors and the Eagles defense gave up 35 and 40 points in these two games. We’ll see if the result is similar in a dome setting.
This analysis brings me to my favorite play on the game.
3 Pick Same-Game Parlay (+100):
- Mahomes over 249.50 Passing Yards
- Chiefs over 16.5 Total Points
- Kelce over 64.5 Receiving Yards
Summary: In Mahomes’ playoff career, he has thrown for over 250 yards in 12 of his 13 starts. The only game he failed to hit 250 was vs. Jacksonville when he left the game with his ankle injury. Kelce has gone over 64 yards in 8 straight playoff games. He’s averaged 104+ yards per game during that stretch. In Mahomes’ playoff career, Kansas City has scored more than 16 points in every game except for the Tampa Bay Super Bowl. I think there’s a high probability this parlay hits regardless of who wins.
Looking back at the Eagles side of things, I think strength of schedule is a concern. They’ve been extremely fortunate to not play any elite teams in the NFL this year aside from the beat up version of the 49ers. On the other hand, the Chiefs played San Francisco, Cincinnati (x2), and Buffalo. I think the Eagles will certainly take some time to adjust to the quality of the Chiefs offense.
I think Philly’s advantage on offense will be with AJ Brown against the Chiefs undersized, young secondary. The Eagles can’t rely on just their running game to match scores with the Chiefs. Steve Spagnuolo has shown that he isn’t scared to leave his corners on islands which should yield lots of big play opportunities for AJ Brown. If the Eagles are to win, I think it’ll be on the back of AJ Brown. I like Brown to go over his projected total of 71.5 receiving yards
Kansas City has been much better against the run this season than in past years. They’ve clearly gotten younger and more athletic in the front seven, which I think has certainly helped out a once struggling unit. However, I think the Eagles can run against anyone. The question will be, will they stay committed to it, if they fall behind? Regardless of that, I think Kenneth Gainwell has a great chance to surpass his yardage total. His total sits at just 19.5 yards. I think he has earned more carries given how explosive he has been in the playoffs. He ran for 48 and 112 yards in the last two games, and he didn’t just rack up these yards in garbage time. I think he is a real threat that has earned opportunities behind Miles Sanders.
Last Random Thoughts:
- I don’t see much value on the MVP. I think it’s simply Mahomes or Hurts depending on the winner.
- I want to see how well Hurts is throwing the ball early on. His shoulder hasn’t looked great in the postseason, but the Eagles have been so dominant that it hasn’t mattered. I think this is an even bigger issue than Mahomes’ ankle.
- Chris Jones played like a man-possessed vs. Cincinnati. I think his play is getting a little undersold, and he could easily be one of the biggest factors in the game.
Long Shot Parlay: (+850)
What’s the Super Bowl without taking a big swing at a long shot parlay?
- Mahomes over 249.5 yards passing
- Chiefs over 16.5 Points
- Kelce over 64.5 yards receiving
- Gainwell over 14.5 yards rushing
- AJ Brown over 79.5 yards receiving
- Jerrick McKinnon over 14.5 yards receiving
- Marques Valdez-Scanlting over 29.5 yards receiving
