Amon-Ra St. Brown over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I’m taking aim at St. Brown’s receiving yards in the early Turkey Day game. St. Brown has clearly returned to the dominant player that he was during the second half of 2021 after an injury riddled beginning to 2022. Over the last 4 weeks, St. Brown has averaged 9.5 targets which is much more in line with what we saw from weeks 12-17 last season and the beginning of 2022.
Before his ankle injury in week 3, he was one of the most dominant receivers in football:
|
Season |
Wk# |
Targets |
Receptions |
Yards |
|
2021 |
12.00 |
12.00 |
10.00 |
86.00 |
|
2021 |
13.00 |
12.00 |
8.00 |
73.00 |
|
2021 |
14.00 |
11.00 |
8.00 |
90.00 |
|
2021 |
15.00 |
11.00 |
9.00 |
91.00 |
|
2021 |
16.00 |
11.00 |
8.00 |
111.00 |
|
2021 |
17.00 |
10.00 |
8.00 |
109.00 |
|
2022 |
1.00 |
12.00 |
8.00 |
64.00 |
|
2022 |
2.00 |
12.00 |
9.00 |
116.00 |
Before his injury in week 3, St. Brown had exceeded 73 yards in 6 of 8 games. The last 2 weeks he has looked more like himself going for 119 yards and 76 yards in successive tries. With the high-octane Bills offense, the Lions will certainly have to throw in high volumes. Just the last two weeks, the Browns and Vikings were forced to throw 41 and 50 times. With St. Brown’s high target share %, he should be in a great position to see somewhere around 12 targets. For his career, St. Brown averages 7.6 yards per target which should translate to more than 91 yards.
Josh Allen most passing Yards on Thanksgiving (+240) (DraftKings Thanksgiving Day Special)
Josh Allen at over +200 is a no brainer for me on this small slate. I expect the Vikings/Patriots passing games to both suffer as they have significant injuries on both offensive lines. Allen playing indoors against what is likely the worst defense in the NFL is the bet for me. I think Dak Prescott is the only real threat, but he has only averaged 235.50 yards passing in his last 4 games against his divisional rival Giants. I expect the Cowboys to attack New York more with their running game as this has been a problem area for New York.
I don’t think there’s any need to overthink this anymore. Take Allen.
Best of Luck!
