“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Denver |
Seattle |
(1.63) |
6.00 |
7.63 |
Seattle |
|
Indianapolis |
Houston |
1.07 |
8.00 |
6.93 |
Houston |
|
Tampa Bay |
Dallas |
(3.17) |
1.50 |
4.67 |
Dallas |
|
Cleveland |
Carolina |
1.63 |
(2.50) |
4.13 |
Cleveland |
|
New England |
Miami |
(5.80) |
(2.50) |
3.30 |
Miami |
|
Pittsburgh |
Cincinnati |
(3.70) |
(6.50) |
2.80 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Las Vegas |
LA Chargers |
(1.07) |
(3.50) |
2.43 |
Las Vegas |
|
Kansas City |
Arizona |
5.83 |
3.50 |
2.33 |
Kansas City |
|
Philadelphia |
Detroit |
6.30 |
4.00 |
2.30 |
Philadelphia |
|
Buffalo |
LA Rams |
1.30 |
2.50 |
1.20 |
LA Rams |
|
Baltimore |
NY Jets |
7.60 |
6.50 |
1.10 |
Baltimore |
|
Green Bay |
Minnesota |
2.93 |
2.00 |
0.93 |
Green Bay |
|
NY Giants |
Tennessee |
(4.90) |
(5.50) |
0.60 |
NY Giants |
|
New Orleans |
Atlanta |
3.90 |
3.50 |
0.40 |
New Orleans |
|
Jacksonville |
Washington |
(3.87) |
(3.50) |
0.37 |
Washington |
|
San Francisco |
Chicago |
6.70 |
7.00 |
0.30 |
Chicago |
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis.
|
QB Rating |
Yards / Attempt |
Sacks |
Points |
|
79.70 |
5.29 |
3.00 |
16.00 |
Pittsburgh +6.5 @ Cincinnati: In a matchup that mirrors the 2021 opener, I think the Steelers have a lot of value at a TD+ again. As a refresher, Pittsburgh began last season on the road as a significant underdog against Buffalo. In fact, the spread was the exact same 6.5 points and the Steelers won 23-16 with a hard-fought defensive effort as evidenced by Josh Allen’s numbers:
Similar to the Bills, the Bengals have a high powered offense and there aren’t many teams in the AFC with loftier expectations. I think the Steelers thrive in situations like this as they continue to be one of the best underdog bets in the NFL over the last 5+ years (22-9 ATS 71%).
While Cincinnati closed its 2021 campaign with an improbable Superbowl run, Joe Burrow was one of the most pressured and sacked quarterbacks in the NFL. The Bengals spent essentially their entire offseason investing heavily into a rebuilt offensive line. However, training camp has brought in a whole lot of uncertainty around that very unit. La’el Collins was brought in to anchor down a tackle spot in a high-priced free agency signing, and he has missed large portions of training camp with a phantom back injury. Alex Cappa, who was acquired from the Bucs, also started out slowly due to his recovery from a core muscle injury. While I think the Bengals offensive unit will be improved eventually this season, I think TJ Watt and the Steelers are one of the toughest tests to face for a rebuilt offensive line that has barely played together. For that reason, I think this game is played in the low 20’s and has an ugly, old-school AFC North feel to it.
Speaking of poor offensive lines, Pittsburgh may have one of the worst in the NFL. My hope is that Cincinnati doesn’t have the same fire power in their pass rush to rattle whoever ends up starting at QB for the Steelers. Big Ben’s retirement will be a benefit to the Pittsburgh offense. The last few seasons he was virtually immobile. It should be refreshing to see some youth and athleticism under center for the Steelers that either Trubisky or Kenny Pickett would bring. If the quarterbacks have any semblance of time, look for the rookie George Pickens to make some big plays on the outside against the Bengals average corners. Pickens has generated a ton of buzz in training camp and looks to already have a stronghold on the WR2 position.
Lastly, I think the fact that the Steelers were crushed twice by the Bengals last season should help them in this game. Mike Tomlin may not have great in game strategic acumen, but he’s one of the best motivators in the game and I think his teams generally play with a chip on their shoulder. Expect to see a fired-up Steelers team as a significant underdog. The Bengals have a ton of weapons on the outside, but I think they’ll have a tough time generating enough time for Burrow to utilize them. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Joe Burrow look a little rusty to start the year. He missed time during camp due to an appendectomy and didn’t see any preseason action.
Kansas City -3.5 @ Arizona: Buckle up, this should be the highest scoring game on the slate. I love the Chiefs here. I think Arizona completely fell apart down the stretch of 2021, and it was their fading defense that was most culpable for that collapse. To top that off, they lost their best pass rusher in Chandler Jones and did virtually nothing to replace him.
I expect to see the same old Mahomes/Andy Reid offense despite the loss of Tyreek Hill. Even with his departure, Kansas City has no shortage of speed at wide receiver with Hardman, and new additions in Valdez-Scantling and rookie Skyy Moore. More importantly, I think JuJu Smith-Schuster can be a reliable target in the slot for Mahomes. Arizona will have no answer for this offense. If the Chiefs decide to run the ball, they should have a major advantage running behind one of the best offensive lines against a defense that last season yielded 4.5 yards per carry (25th). Last year Kansas City was one of the best teams in rushing yards before contact, a great indicator of effective blocking. In fact, they were 3rd in the NFL at 3.1 yards before contact per attempt (only Baltimore and Philly ranked higher).
I think KC’s defense has a better shot at slowing down the Deandre Hopkins-less Cardinals. The Chiefs invested significantly in their defense. They added a play-making safety in Justin Reid and spent high draft picks on George Karlaftis (DE) and Trent McDuffie (CB) both of whom should have an immediate impact. The Cardinals offense also sputtered down the stretch of 2021. During the first half of 2021, this was one the best offenses in football, but during their 1-5 streak to end the year, they averaged just 19.5 points per game. Murray’s QB rating plummeted, and he only exceeded a 100 passer rating one time in the final 6 games.
I think a major reason why Murray struggled so much was he saw a lot more blitzes during that final stretch. In his first 9 games, he was blitzed double digit times just once. Look at how that changed during their final 4 games and how he reacted to it:
|
Opponent |
Number of Blitzes |
QB Rating |
Result |
|
LA Rams |
14.00 |
72.10 |
L |
|
Detroit |
11.00 |
72.90 |
L |
|
Indy |
10.00 |
85.90 |
L |
|
Dallas |
16.00 |
105.50 |
W |
|
Seattle |
5.00 |
96.10 |
L |
This should favor KC’s defensive approach. Steve Spagnuolo has never been shy about sending extra rushers. They blitzed at the 8th highest rate in 2021.
This game has jumped back and forth between -3 and -3.5 for the past few weeks. I think KC is the superior team and Mahomes has a strong track record in September.
New England @ Miami -2.5: The Patriots offseason has been nothing short of tumultuous. After OC Josh McDaniels departed for the Raiders head coaching job, New England has replaced their offensive leadership with failed head coaches (Matt Patricia and Joe Judge) who specialize in defense and special teams.
To make things even more dicey, the Patriots are in the middle of a transition into a new offense based around the concepts used by Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan. Well renowned reporters have documented the process and the reviews have been terrible. The offensive line is not picking up the new strategies of the zone blocking and run stuffs and sacks have become common place during joint practices and training camp. This was especially evident in their last preseason game against the Las Vegas Raiders backups…
What’s even more concerning for the Patriots is that they face one of the more blitz-happy, aggressive defenses in the Dolphins in week 1. Josh Boyer, a long time protégé, under Brian Flores should have full command over the defense in his absence. In fact, Flores has shown that his defensive philosophy has had great success against this very scheme. Two notable games come to my mind:
|
Situation |
QB Rating |
Yards / Attempt |
Turnovers |
Points Scored |
|
Patriots vs. Rams Superbowl |
57.90 |
6.03 |
1.00 |
3.00 |
|
Dolphins vs. Rams 2020 |
65.90 |
5.82 |
4.00 |
17.00 |
Josh Boyer was a key defensive assistant on both of the staffs that obliterated the Sean Mcvay offenses in each blowout victory. I think there are certainly elements from each of these games that can apply to the week 1 matchup with New England.
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins are implementing the same type of offense. However, they have two things that the Patriots don’t have going for them: immense speed/talent at the wide receiver position and a coach who has spent his career developing and installing this offense. Mike McDaniel who takes over at head coach for the Dolphins has a great track record of designing plays around getting the ball out quickly to his receivers and with plenty of room to run after the catch. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the same offense, there isn’t a faster duo maybe in the history of the NFL. I think the Patriots corner group is in trouble this week in their first game without JC Jackson, their best defensive player of 2021. Chase Edmunds should also be a weapon out of the backfield that will challenge the inexperienced Patriots linebackers in the passing game. The last time we saw the Patriots defense in a meaningful game, they gave up 7 straight touchdowns in 7 possessions. I think they are in trouble.
Winning at Miami continues to be a problem for the Patriots even going back to the Brady era. Going back to 2017, the Patriots are just 1-4 at Miami. I think the Dolphins represent great value as under a FG favorites.
Las Vegas +3.5 @ LA Chargers: The Chargers are the kings of preseason hype. The Chargers “won the offseason” is an all too familiar phrase that you hear around this team. Fading the Chargers as a favorite has been a profitable strategy for me for years, and I think I am sticking with it until they prove me wrong (12-19 ATS since 2017 38.70%). I will admit that it’s not quite apples to apples to compare Justin Herbert’s Chargers to the teams of the past, but this team has generally failed to play up to its expectations given its historical talent level.
These teams know each other well and typically play close games. In fact, over the last 3 seasons, the cumulative score of this series is 157-157 and the Raiders have won 4 out of the last 6. 5 out of the 6 games were decided by 1 score.
Given all that, I expect to see a shootout. The addition of Devante Adams should be enormous for the already productive Raiders offense. JC Jackson, star corner who was acquired by LA, will likely miss this game as he continues to recover from ankle surgery. I think that’s a tough loss given the explosiveness of the combination of Renfrow and Adams.
This game will likely come down to a critical turnover. The addition of Chandler Jones to pair with Maxx Crosby on the edge gives the Raiders a great chance to be the team to force that critical turnover. Only TJ Watt has forced more fumbles than Chandler Jones’ 19 over the last 5 years. A lot of excitement was generated around the Chargers’ signing of Khalil Mack, but I think Jones is the more impactful player.
I like the Raiders in this spot, and I like what Josh McDaniels and his staff could potentially bring to a very talented Vegas roster.
Random Thoughts:
- Should be an exciting kickoff game with the Bills facing the defending champs. The Bills enter as the consensus Super Bowl favorites, but the defending champs have historically played well in these “banner hanging” spots. I’ll likely sit this one out and just enjoy that football is back!
- I think the Cowboys have some solid value as home dogs. Tampa Bay’s offensive line has been a mess with injuries popping up all over the place, and Tom Brady doesn’t seem like himself to start the season with his near 2 week hiatus. I think Dallas is the play.
- I also like Cleveland as road dogs against a Carolina team that doesn’t have much to offer. Despite the Deshaun Watson drama, I’d expect Cleveland to take command. They performed well in backup QB situations last season while Mayfield missed some time.
- Philadelphia has a very winnable game to start vs. the Lions. If you read my preseason analysis on the Eagles, you know how high I am on this roster and their hopes for the 2022 season. It will be key for them to start strong.
- A few weeks ago, I think the Giants had some solid value at +6.5 vs. the Titans. But that has since come down below 6 and I probably would stay away now. I think the Titans have had some major losses and they could potentially take a step back this season.
- I’m not crazy about some of the giant spreads on the road teams to open. If I had to choose, I’d probably back the Niners over the Ravens or Colts who are also significant road favorites.
- Russell Wilson returns to Seattle in his first game as a Bronco. I can see him playing nervous and maybe not up to his potential. Even though I think this Seattle team is completely trash!
Welcome back everyone!
Good luck and stay tuned for my Week 1 Draftkings analysis which will also be released very soon….
