“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Washington |
Philadelphia |
(19.57) |
(10.50) |
9.07 |
Philadelphia |
|
Minnesota |
Buffalo |
(10.40) |
(4.00) |
6.40 |
Buffalo |
|
Dallas |
Green Bay |
(1.17) |
5.00 |
6.17 |
Green Bay |
|
Seattle |
Tampa Bay |
1.83 |
(3.00) |
4.83 |
Seattle |
|
Jacksonville |
Kansas City |
(4.93) |
(9.50) |
4.57 |
Jacksonville |
|
Detroit |
Chicago |
(6.13) |
(3.00) |
3.13 |
Chicago |
|
Cleveland |
Miami |
(6.00) |
(3.50) |
2.50 |
Miami |
|
Houston |
NY Giants |
(2.30) |
(4.50) |
2.20 |
Houston |
|
LA Chargers |
San Francisco |
(4.87) |
(7.00) |
2.13 |
LA Chargers |
|
Arizona |
LA Rams |
(4.30) |
(3.00) |
1.30 |
LA Rams |
|
Indianapolis |
Las Vegas |
(5.17) |
(6.00) |
0.83 |
Indianapolis |
|
New Orleans |
Pittsburgh |
3.27 |
2.50 |
0.77 |
New Orleans |
|
Atlanta |
Carolina |
1.77 |
2.50 |
0.73 |
Carolina |
|
Denver |
Tennessee |
(1.97) |
(2.50) |
0.53 |
Denver |
**The Money Zone is 32-24 ATS (57.14%) in 2022**
Money Zone picks are Seattle, Jacksonville, Chicago, Miami, Houston & LA Chargers
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 21-14 ATS (60.00% for 2022)**
Jacksonville +9.5 @ Kansas City: I’m fading the Chiefs for the second consecutive week as a large home favorite. KC has struggled to pull away in these situations over the past few seasons. Kansas City’s reputation as a dominant force at Arrowhead Stadium (or whatever they call it now…) has not lived up to the actual results they’ve provided. Since 2020, the Chiefs are just 10-14 ATS (40.41%) as a home favorite. When you look at those results even closer, they are even worse when they have been favored by more than a touchdown. In those situations, they are only 3-6 ATS in the last two seasons.
Aside from the trends above, Jacksonville has been a tough out so far for just about every team they have faced. The Jaguars have yet to lose a game by more than 8 points all season. Although the Jaguars will certainly have struggles slowing down the Chiefs offense, I think they should score plenty of points to keep this game competitive. Since Travis Etienne has taken over full time responsibility at running back he has excelled. Etienne has averaged over 6 yards per carry and has run for over a hundred yards in 3 of the 4 games. Although Kansas City has been improved at stopping the run this season, effective running teams have historically given the Chiefs significant problems. Teams like the Browns, Colts, and Titans have all covered large spreads with their ability to run the ball.
The Chiefs also remain thin at cornerback which should yield more opportunities for Jags wideout Christian Kirk. Kirk has seen a lot more looks from Trevor Lawrence as of late, gathering 26 targets over the past 3 games. Expect Kirk and Etienne to have productive days in a shootout type game. Kansas City’s red zone defense has also struggled significantly, as they rank just 30th in that category, giving up TD’s on over 70% of opportunities. It’s very difficult to cover large spreads when the red zone defense isn’t performing better.
Patrick Mahomes has been phenomenal this season, no one can argue with that. No team can keep Mahomes down for an entire game, but this Jacksonville defense isn’t nearly as bad as it was a season ago. Here are some of the improvements they have made across the board on defense:
|
Season |
Passer Rating Def. |
Opponent Yards / Play |
Scoring Def. |
Takeaways Per Game |
|
2022 |
85.80 (9th) |
5.40 (14th) |
19.80 (11th) |
1.2 (18th) |
|
2021 |
100.80 (29th) |
5.60 (25th) |
26.90 (28th) |
.50 (32nd) |
Jacksonville has also been a solid time of possession team so far in 2022, ranking 11th overall in that category. Maintaining ball control can be an effective way to keep the game close and seal the 9.5 point cover.
Houston +4.5 @ NY Giants: I wish I could have gotten this article published sooner, as I circled this game the second the opening line came out at +6.5…. However, I think the Texans still are one of the better bets on the board at this number. The Giants are one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL at 5.5 yards allowed / carry (31st), and they will get a tough test against Dameon Pierce who has been a monster so far this season.
Despite the Giants 6-2 record, they have had troubles on the offensive side of the ball. I think the numbers below really paint the picture of the Giants offense:
|
Yards Per Play |
Points Per Game |
Sack % Allowed |
|
5.0 (24th) |
20.40 (22nd) |
10.08% (30th) |
Jerry Hughes has really ramped his pressure over the past few games for the Texans and now has 7 sacks on the season (7th in the NFL). I think Daniel Jones has the tendency to hold onto the ball too long which often times gets him in trouble. In 2022, he has taken care of the ball, but history tells me that he will revert back to his bad habits of the past.
I think in many ways, these teams mirror each other. They both have effective running games, both have played well defending the pass, and both offenses have had trouble passing the ball with consistency. Because they are so similar, I think there is value on the FG+ underdog in this contest. However, The Texans will need more from their passing game this week. Nico Collins has returned from injury, and I’m hopeful that the Brandin Cooks’ drama will resolve itself before the game.
It might be wise to wait for a better number than +4.5. I think it’s possible Giants money could push this number back closer to 6 by the time it kicks off.
Detroit @ Chicago -3: The Bears offense has suddenly exploded over the past 3 weeks. Justin Fields has led Chicago to 33, 29, and 32 point performances over the past 3 weeks. He clearly looks revitalized around a new offensive strategy that has thrived with him in designed running plays. I think he should benefit again when he faces off against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Lions. He has taken much better care of the ball during this stretch with a 6/1 TD/INT ratio. I think Chase Claypool will be more involved in the passing game with another week of practice under his belt. He clearly gives them a second option on the outside, aside from Darnell Mooney. The Bears are the second best rushing team in the NFL at 5.4 yards / carry, while Detroit’s defense is 28th in the league in that category. I think Chicago will have no issues moving the ball against Detroit in this contest.
I’m happy to fade the Lions on the road, as their offense completely disappears once they leave Detroit. Look at how much it has fallen off when they have played road games so far this season:
|
Location |
Points Scored |
Passer Rating |
Yards / Play |
|
Home |
31.60 (2nd) |
103.40 (5th) |
6.40 (2nd) |
|
Away |
10.00 (31st) |
72.10 (29th) |
5.30 (20th) |
I think this is pretty consistent with Jared Goff over the course of his career as his home QB rating is 95.50 vs. his road QB rating of 87.40.
I think the Bears are starting to rally around their second year QB who unexpectedly looks like the best quarterback of the 2021 draft. The weather is also supposed to cool down in Chicago for Sunday. I think this certainly benefits the run-heavy Bears. The last time Goff played in a cold game in Chicago (in 2018), he threw 4 interceptions in a 15-6 loss in which he posted a 19.1 QB rating. I have major questions about Goff’s abilities in the cold weather.
Seattle +3 @ Tampa Bay (Germany Game): I like the Seahawks getting 3 points in an important NFC matchup in Europe. Seattle continues to be an underdog against inferior competition, and they continue to win. I’m sticking with that trend against a Bucs team that still hasn’t showed any consistency to me. Tampa grinded out a win against a Rams team that did everything they could to hand Tampa the game. By the numbers, Seattle has been the better team in 2022, and it isn’t particularly close:
|
Team |
Passer Rating Differential |
Yards / Point Margin |
Net yards / Play |
Point Differential |
|
Seattle |
11.30 (4th) |
1.50 (11th) |
0.50 |
2.30 (10th) |
|
Tampa Bay |
2.30 (10th) |
-1.30(21st) |
– |
-.2 (15th) |
Seattle’s offense continues to rack up yards and points with their big play passing game combined with their power running game. I think what’s been more impressive over the past few games, is the turn around of their defense. Over the past three games, the Seahawks defense has yielded the following numbers:
|
Passer Rating Def. |
Points Allowed |
Sack % |
Opp. Yards / Play |
|
86.00 (9th) |
19.0 (10th) |
10% (6th) |
4.2 (1st) |
I knew they had talent on offense, but I’m shocked that Pete Carroll has gotten his young defense turned around so quickly.
Sure, the Bucs have the better roster on paper, but they have not played up to their potential. As crazy as it sounds Geno Smith has outplayed Tom Brady in just about every facet of the game…. I never thought I’d write that in a million years….
It’s certainly possible that Brady and the Bucs saved their season last week in victory and carry that momentum into this week. But with how poorly they have played in the first half of the season, I am not ready to give them that benefit of the doubt against a team that has played better football for a large sample size.
Random Thoughts:
- The Chargers at +7 seems too good to be true…. I know they have major problems with their run defense, but I can’t turn down Justin Herbert getting 7 points regardless of who suits up at receiver. Probably a trap game, but I’m feeling risky….
- Miami’s offense continues to cruise. Myles Garrett will likely give the Dolphins O-line a ton of problems, but the Browns have absolutely no one to match up with the dynamic duo of Waddle/Hill
- With Buffalo at just -4, it certainly looks like Josh Allen is not trending towards playing. I think they will take it personal and deliver a convincing win even with Case Keenum at QB. Too much talent on the whole roster.
- I like Dallas against the struggling Packers. I can’t see the Packers scoring enough on that defense to keep it competitive.
- The Eagles are double digit favorites yet again. I think that’s a lot of points for a team that knows them well.
Good luck everyone!
