“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Washington |
Houston |
(4.50) |
3.50 |
8.00 |
Houston |
|
Philadelphia |
Indianapolis |
14.30 |
6.50 |
7.80 |
Philadelphia |
|
Cincinnati |
Pittsburgh |
11.53 |
4.00 |
7.53 |
Cincinnati |
|
Kansas City |
LA Chargers |
(0.40) |
6.50 |
6.90 |
LA Chargers |
|
Las Vegas |
Denver |
(9.37) |
(3.00) |
6.37 |
Denver |
|
Cleveland |
Buffalo |
(13.37) |
(8.50) |
4.87 |
Buffalo |
|
San Francisco |
Arizona |
3.73 |
8.00 |
4.27 |
Arizona |
|
Carolina |
Baltimore |
(8.60) |
(12.50) |
3.90 |
Carolina |
|
Chicago |
Atlanta |
0.20 |
(3.50) |
3.70 |
Chicago |
|
Dallas |
Minnesota |
3.37 |
1.00 |
2.37 |
Dallas |
|
Tennessee |
Green Bay |
(1.17) |
(3.50) |
2.33 |
Tennessee |
|
NY Jets |
New England |
(4.40) |
(3.00) |
1.40 |
New England |
|
Detroit |
NY Giants |
(4.67) |
(3.50) |
1.17 |
NY Giants |
|
LA Rams |
New Orleans |
(4.07) |
(3.50) |
0.57 |
New Orleans |
**The Money Zone is 34-28 ATS (54.84%) in 2022**
Money Zone picks are Buffalo, Arizona, Carolina, Chicago, Dallas, & Tennessee
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 21-18 ATS (53.84% for 2022)**
Chicago +3.5 @ Atlanta: I’m backing the Bears for a 2nd consecutive week, but this time as a road underdog. This week, they face a Falcons team that has struggled to do anything particularly well. I believe Atlanta is a perfect fade-candidate laying 3.5 points versus just about any opponent. The Falcons have struggled in this position for the past few seasons going just 3-6 ATS as a home favorite (33%).
After a relatively strong start to the season, the Falcons have had major trouble on both sides of the ball. The most glaring deficiencies are on defense:
|
Passer Rating Def. |
Opponent Yards / Play |
Sack % |
Points Allowed |
|
95.50 (25th) |
6.0 (31st) |
3.32% (31st) |
25.0 (27th) |
While Chicago’s defense has had troubles of its own, the Bears are undoubtedly the more explosive offense right now. Only the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Cowboys have scored more points than the Bears over the last 3 weeks. Justin Fields has become a dynamic runner, and I think he has a great chance to continue that success against a heartless Falcons defense. Fields has also developed a great rapport with Cole Kmet during this span as he has caught 4 touchdowns in the last 3 games. The Falcons have been one of the worst teams at covering tight ends in 2022, as they rank 30th in allowed receiving yards to TE’s with 588 yards.
Pass protection has been a major issue for both teams as they rank at the bottom of the NFL in sack percentage. However, Atlanta’s lack of pass rush should allow Fields to generate more big plays. Both quarterbacks have a tendency to hold onto the ball too long, but for Fields it often pays off with a huge run or a deep pass. Mariota, on the other hand, hasn’t had the same success when it comes to generating explosive plays. He doesn’t carry the same upside that you get from the Bears offense.
Cleveland @ Buffalo -8.5: Buffalo defied all odds by losing to the Vikings in an almost unprecedented fashion. The Bills continued their struggle of closing out 1 score games, a problem that has plagued Josh Allen for much of his young career. However, this week, I think Buffalo should blow out the over-matched Browns. Cleveland has had all kinds of problems slowing down explosive offenses so far in 2022. To me, the Browns are a 1 man defense right now. I expect the Bills to double team Myles Garrett all day, and target the weak secondary with their explosive play-makers in Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. The Dolphins used this same strategy last week enroute to a 39 point blowout. Expect the Bills offense to have similar success.
The Browns offense is almost entirely reliant upon the legs of Nick Chubb. In games where Chubb has failed to rush for 100+ yards this season, Cleveland is 0-4 and (1-3 ATS). I expect the Bills to have a much better game plan for stopping the run this week after they were gashed by Dalvin Cook vs. the Vikings. Buffalo has otherwise been an excellent run defense allowing the 7th least amount of rushing yards per game. If the Bills front seven can hold up against the Browns ground game, I have full faith in the secondary to slow down Amari Cooper. Jacoby Brissett will also likely be under heavy pressure as the Browns have allowed 14 sacks over the past 4 games. Expect Von Miller to be a major factor like usual.
Lastly, the Bills have an impressive track record as large home favorites over the past few seasons. Before the Vikings game last week, the Bills had outscored their opponents 106-27 while playing at home. To me, this is a classic “Get Right” game for Allen and the Bills, as they look to shake off a troubling loss and regain their lead in the AFC East. I think Cleveland won’t have the offensive fire power required to stay close in this one. The Browns will likely run into the same problems that the Titans had in their blowout loss to Buffalo. On the injury front, Allen looked like he had no limitations throwing. He just needs to improve his decision-making.
**Bonus Play Buffalo Over 24.5 Team Total**: At home this season, the Bills have averaged 34 points per game, and they’ve scored 27 points or more in every home game. I’m not sure I understand this line…**Update 11/16… There is expected to be a major blizzard in Buffalo this weekend. I would not recommend betting the over on this bonus play. Thank you**
Tennessee +3.5 @ Green Bay: The Titans continue to pile up wins under Mike Vrabel. Aside from the one dud that Tennessee laid against an overmatched Bills team, they have been a very tough opponent for everyone. I like the Titans as a FG+ dog against a Green Bay team that has struggled to produce in the passing game. Buffalo pounded the Titans defense for 41 points, but no other team has been able to score more than 22 points against Tennessee this season.
Jeffery Simmons has been a force on the defensive line for Tennessee this season. He has stated that he plans to play through his ankle injury Thursday night, and he is certainly a difference maker for the pass rush. Tennessee is now one of the better teams at pressuring the quarterback (6th ranked) and they are able to do so without bringing the blitz (28th highest blitz rate). I think this is a necessary strategy to use against Aaron Rodgers who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at attacking a blitzing defense.
The Red Zone looks to be another area where Tennessee should maintain an advantage:
|
Team |
Red Zone Off |
Red Zone Def |
|
Tennessee |
76.19% (1st) |
52.00% (10th) |
|
Green Bay |
51.72% (23rd) |
51.72% (8th) |
Having Derrick Henry in the red zone can sure make the play-callers’ life easier!
Overall, I think these teams are constructed in very similar ways on offense. Neither team has been overly effective through the air, so they rely on their running games. However, Tennessee’s defense has been far better at stopping the run, than Green Bay. In a game that will likely be played at below freezing, I’m leaning on the better defense that’s getting over a FG:
|
Team |
Opponent Rushing Yards / Att |
Points Allowed / Game |
3rd Down % Allowed |
|
Tennessee |
3.9 (3rd) |
18.70 (8th) |
27.87% (1st) |
|
Green Bay |
4.8 (28th) |
21.60 (16th) |
32.74% (3rd) |
Dallas -1 @ Minnesota: Both of these teams are coming off emotional overtime games. Dallas was on the wrong end, while Minnesota pulled off a miracle in Buffalo. I expect a let down for the Vikings as they face a second consecutive intense defense that has more sacks than any team in the NFL. Kirk Cousins hasn’t held up well against pressure throughout his career, and I expect that to continue as he has to deal with Micah Parsons after battling through Von Miller last week. Minnesota continues to win close games at an unbelievable clip. The Vikings are 7-0 in 1 score games. Under normal circumstances, the expected win rate is significantly lower than that. To me, it’s unsustainable to continue to win games in the 4th quarter at this high of a rate while getting mediocre pass defense. Minnesota is 29th in the NFL in passing yards allowed / attempt and have the 31st ranked red zone defense allowing TD’s on 72% of opportunities.
Entering this week, Dallas is the far more desperate team. The Vikings have essentially locked up their division, while the Cowboys are fighting to stay alive in the NFC East as they attempt to track down Philly. Minnesota also has a Thanksgiving game with the Patriots on the horizon. They are not accustomed to playing on Thanksgiving, like Dallas, and I would not be surprised to see them have a let down this weekend as they could potentially overlook Dallas.
Dak Prescott has uncharacteristically turned the ball over quite a bit in his four games this season. I think he should get back on track on Sunday as it looks like Zeke Elliott is trending towards playing in this contest, and I think it will certainly benefit Prescott to have both Elliott and Pollard running to control the game flow. Cee Dee Lamb also exploded last week in Green Bay, and I think he should be in line for another big game against a weaker Vikings secondary. The Cowboys need to double or even triple team Justin Jefferson at this point. The Cowboys need to force Minnesota to win with someone other than Jefferson. If they can do that, I think they should win this game.
Random Thoughts:
- San Francisco is certainly getting a ton of respect from the odds makers. I think 8 is too many on the road for Garoppolo.
- The Pittsburgh defense got a jolt of life with TJ Watt’s return. I would not back a Chase-less Cincy with the problems they’ve had blocking.
- The Jets/Patriots game should be another ugly, defensive battle. I’d probably lean Jets this time, but not confident enough on either side.
- Detroit with +3.5 seems like a logical play. They’ve been an unpredictable team, but it seems like Amon-Ra St. Brown is back to full strength and has been a weapon in the slot.
- The Chargers have always played Mahomes well. I think their defense may be a little too banged up this time, but I’d lean Chargers with the points on that one.
- Jeff Saturday came off the street and coached the Colts to a victory. I think he’ll come back to Earth against an angry Eagles team.
Good luck everyone!
