I’m taking a long shot on this one… I am looking to play alternate rushing totals on Brian Robinson’s rushing yardage vs. the Texans.
It’s no secret that Houston has been horrible at stopping the run going back several years. This year, running backs have continued to pile up huge yardage vs. this defense. There have already been 5 games this year where the Texans have given up 140+ yards to one back in a single game:
|
Player |
Rushing Yards Allowed |
|
Jonathan Taylor |
161.00 |
|
Khalil Herbert |
157.00 |
|
Josh Jacobs |
143.00 |
|
Derrick Henry |
219.00 |
|
Saquon Barkley |
152.00 |
Brian Robinson has clearly distinguished himself as the “workhorse back” that gets the Lion’s share of carries between the tackles for the Commanders. Robinson has already had 2 games where he’s received 20+ carries, including last week’s 26 carry performance in victory over the Eagles. I think this week will be his breakout game against a poor run defense.
If you are looking for a conservative bet, I think there is certainly value at Over 64.5 yards (-130).
If you are looking for some upside, I would recommend making a bet like this:
|
Bet |
Odds |
Amount to Bet |
% of Total Bet |
Potential Payouts |
|
Brian Robinson Over 75+ Rushing Yards |
+160 |
75.00 |
50.00% |
195.00 |
|
Brian Robinson Over 100+ Rushing Yards |
+425 |
50.00 |
33.33% |
262.50 |
|
Brian Robinson Over 125+ Rushing Yards |
+800 |
25.00 |
16.67% |
225.00 |
|
|
Total |
150.00 |
100.00% |
682.50 |
These odds are all currently available on Draftkings Sportsbook under the “Alternate Rushing Yards” section. By structuring your bet this way, you would still profit even if he only exceeded 75 yards, but you also give yourself some upside if he has a huge game. I just used $150.00 as an example, but of course, bet what you feel comfortable with, and you can use the “% of total bet” as a guide.
Best of Luck!
