2022 NFL Season – Week 12

“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.

**The Money Zone is 38-30 ATS (55.88%) in 2022**

Money Zone picks are Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Denver, New Orleans, & Minnesota

“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 24-19 ATS (55.81% for 2022)**

New England @ Minnesota -2.5: I’m choosing Minnesota laying less than a FG in the Thanksgiving night cap. Minnesota, as I predicted, got exposed by Dallas in one of the biggest blowouts of the year. People have been ripping Minnesota as a fraud team all week, and I think that narrative has gone too far. When you stop and think about the spot they were in, it’s understandable that they had a setback coming off a win against the consensus Super Bowl favorite in a game that can only be explained as an emotional roller coaster. They clearly emptied the tank to beat Buffalo, and had to face a well-equipped Dallas team that had much more to play for.

The Vikings defense got beat badly by the Cowboys and gave up countless amounts of explosive plays. Luckily for Minnesota, this week they face one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Over the last 3 games, the Patriots have been one of the least productive offenses, posting some horrid numbers:

Pass protection has certainly been the most glaring deficiency for the Patriots during this span. I think Mac Jones won’t get any breaks this week as he faces Danielle Hunter and ZeDarius Smith on the defensive edges for Minnesota. The Patriots tackles have continued to get exposed, and Matt Patricia has had no answers to get this offense corrected. While the Vikings are weak in the secondary, I don’t think the Patriots have any weapons on the outside to exploit these vulnerabilities. Expense the Vikings defense to play much better on a national stage after getting embarrassed a week earlier.

New England, however, has been excellent with its pass defense over the last month. They have generated a ton of pressure on opposing QB’s and have forced the 5^th most takeaways in the league. Cousins has lost his left tackle to injury, so he could be under a lot of pressure on Thursday night. To me, the key will be for Minnesota to lean on Dalvin Cook and the running game. Teams that were able to successfully run on the Patriots had the most success. Baltimore, Chicago, and Green Bay all had big games on the ground and were able to score 37, 27, and 33 points on this Patriots defense. The Patriots have won their last 3 games by playing extremely conservative offense combined with smothering defense. I’m not sure that strategy will work against a capable quarterback with explosive playmakers in a dome setting.

Green Bay @ Philadelphia -7: I think Green Bay has officially thrown in the towel on this season. If the Eagles can get an early lead in this one, I can see this quickly turning into a blowout. Aaron Rodgers just doesn’t have it this season and he has clearly given up on building a rapport with his young receivers. I never thought I’d see a Rodgers led team score just 18.3 points per game (26^th) and average just 6.8 yards per pass attempt (20^th). The Packers don’t have enough offense to keep this game close in my mind. Philadelphia appears to have corrected its run defense by adding Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh on the inside. After getting run on the past few weeks vs. Washington and Houston, they held down a revitalized Jonathan Taylor to just 3.8 yards per rush. If the Eagles can hold Aaron Jones in check, I expect their deep roster of pass rushers to feast on Rodgers and the weaker Packers offensive line.

The Eagles offense has slowed down after its torrid start. The last two weeks they faced some tough defensive fronts in their loss to Washington and near loss to Indy. I think Philly will get back to what it does best and use its running game and use it to setup big plays to Devonta Smith and AJ Brown. Only the Bears and Giants have more rushing attempts than the Eagles in 2022, and the Packers have surrendered the 24^th most rushing yards in the league. Green Bay’s defense should be a favorable matchup for the run-heavy Eagles.

Denver -2.5 @ Carolina: Boy is this an ugly matchup!…

In this matchup of two offensively-challenged teams, I’m leaning on the better defense. Despite Russell Wilson’s pitiful debut at quarterback, the Broncos have maintained one of the league’s best defensive units:

Carolina is last in the NFL in time of possession, last in passer rating, and 28th in turnover margin. It’s hard for me to envision the Panthers scoring in double digits in this game.

The game plan for the Broncos should be simple. Run the ball on offense, and don’t do anything stupid. Wait for the Panthers offense to make a critical mistake. Don’t be afraid to kick field goals!

If there’s one positive thing you can say about Russell Wilson this year, it’s that he hasn’t been a disaster in road games. He’s posted 100+ QB ratings in 2 of the 5 games, and he has a 6/2 TD/INT ratio. If he’s able to play a clean game with those types of numbers, Denver has a great chance to win by a FG or more.

Random Thoughts:

• Sorry for the abbreviated slate, only feeling strong about three of these games at the moment…. I’ll do my best to add a prop or two for the Thanksgiving Day games.
• I think my next choice would be New Orleans getting 9.5. Although the Saints defense is pretty banged up, they have generally played tough as an underdog. I think now is a good time to fade San Francisco as they are everyone’s new favorite pick to come out of the NFC and riding high….
• Washington also feels due for a correction. They are pretty heavy favorites again, and have not performed well in that position over the past few seasons. However, I understand if you can’t get excited about backing Atlanta against anyone….
• My formula really likes Jacksonville this year…. But they continue to disappoint. Baltimore really sleep walked through their win over Carolina. I think they will play a much better game this week.
• Hard not to like Buffalo against Detroit in the early Turkey game. I can’t envision a scenario where they don’t score 35+ points against a bad Lions defense.
• The Giants getting 9.5 points against a division rival feels like the right play to make. They have covered the spread against the Cowboys in 3 of the last 4 games started by Daniel Jones. I also generally like to fade teams after blow out wins.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Good luck everyone!