“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Cleveland |
Houston |
(2.83) |
7.00 |
9.83 |
Houston |
|
Tennessee |
Philadelphia |
(13.17) |
(5.50) |
7.67 |
Philadelphia |
|
Denver |
Baltimore |
(2.83) |
(8.50) |
5.67 |
Denver |
|
Washington |
NY Giants |
(2.27) |
2.50 |
4.77 |
NY Giants |
|
NY Jets |
Minnesota |
1.70 |
(3.00) |
4.70 |
NY Jets |
|
Miami |
San Francisco |
(1.07) |
(4.00) |
2.93 |
Miami |
|
Kansas City |
Cincinnati |
4.03 |
1.50 |
2.53 |
Kansas City |
|
Buffalo |
New England |
6.43 |
4.00 |
2.43 |
Buffalo |
|
Jacksonville |
Detroit |
(0.93) |
1.00 |
1.93 |
Detroit |
|
Pittsburgh |
Atlanta |
(2.43) |
(1.00) |
1.43 |
Atlanta |
|
Indianapolis |
Dallas |
(9.70) |
(11.00) |
1.30 |
Indianapolis |
|
Seattle |
LA Rams |
6.23 |
7.50 |
1.27 |
LA Rams |
|
Green Bay |
Chicago |
4.13 |
4.50 |
0.37 |
Chicago |
|
New Orleans |
Tampa Bay |
(3.70) |
(4.00) |
0.30 |
New Orleans |
|
LA Chargers |
Las Vegas |
1.77 |
1.50 |
0.27 |
LA Chargers |
**The Money Zone is 40-33 ATS (54.79%) in 2022**
Money Zone picks are Denver, NY Giants, NY Jets, Miami, Kansas City, Buffalo
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 25-20 ATS (55.56% for 2022)**
Buffalo -4 @ New England: I’m fading New England for a 2nd consecutive week as they lineup against their superior division rival. Not enough has changed for me to take the Patriots seriously since the last time these teams faced off in the playoffs and the Bills blew the doors off the Patriots in a punt-free 47 point performance.
New England’s defense has had no problems pummeling poor quarterbacks. They destroyed Mitch Trubisky, Jared Goff, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Ehlinger, and Zach Wilson (2x). But when they faced any quarterbacks with any track record of success, they were badly exposed. See below:
|
QB |
Passer Rating |
TD / INT |
Rushing Yards |
Result |
|
Lamar Jackson |
110.30 |
5 / 1 |
107.00 |
L 37-26 |
|
Aaron Rodgers |
89.10 |
2 / 1 |
– |
L 27-24 |
|
Kirk Cousins |
116.10 |
3 / 1 |
– |
L 33-26 |
|
Justin Fields |
85.20 |
2 /1 |
82.00 |
L 33-14 |
|
Tua Tagovailoa |
104.40 |
1 / 0 |
– |
L 20-7 |
With the exception of Tua, the Patriots defense gave up 27 points or higher to any above average QB that they’ve faced. They’ve also gotten gashed on the ground by any mobile quarterbacks.
Since 2020, the Patriots defense has had absolutely no answer for Josh Allen. Their only defeat of him came in hurricane conditions when it was borderline impossible to throw the ball with any type of efficiency. During this span, Allen has thrown 13 TD’s to 1 interception, and he has run the ball for an average of 43 yards per game. If you remove the wind game from the averages, the Bills offense has averaged 35+ points per game in their last 4 matchups, winning all 4.
The Bills haven’t played their best football over the past 3 weeks, but they have managed to survive and get wins. Although this game will be played on a Thursday, I think it will be a return to normalcy for the Bills who were relocated during a blizzard, and played in a road environment on a holiday game. Gillette Stadium has been a place of comfort for Allen and the Bills over the past few seasons. I think the odds makers have vastly over rated the Patriots coming into this week. I expected the Bills to be sitting at -6.5 at the least.
Kansas City -1.5 @ Cincinnati: Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs had to have this game circled on the schedule all season long. The Bengals enjoyed 2 victories over Kansas City in the 2021 season, but I think the Chiefs will finally get by them this week.
Looking back to the AFC Championship from last season, the Chiefs squandered a 21-3 second quarter lead. The Chiefs had totally dominated the first half before the offense came to a screeching halt and never recovered. I think the offense had been too revolved around Tyreek Hill, and the Chiefs lacked creativity in getting other players open. This season, the Chiefs have clearly made a focus to spread the ball around to all of their pass catchers. This offensive approach has made their offense as dynamic as ever, as they have produced the results below:
|
Points per Game |
Yards / Play |
Red Zone % |
3rd Down % |
|
29.60 (1st) |
6.50 (1st) |
65.31% (6th) |
51.16% (1st) |
I think Andy Reid will have a game plan to counter what the Bengals did so well in containing Mahomes in the 2nd half of the championship game.
Ja’Marr Chase had the game of a lifetime against KC in the first matchup between these teams in 2021. He’s expected to be back this weekend, but I think it may take time for him to regain form coming off a hip injury that kept him on IR for about a month. The Chiefs defense has improved immensely as of late. They now rank 3rd in the NFL in pressure %, and should give the Bengals shaky offensive line a host of problems. Also, the Chiefs run defense, normally a glaring weakness, has been much improved under the leadership of young linebacker Nick Bolton. The Chiefs have gone from 31st ranked in 2021, to 11th in 2022 in rushing yards allowed per carry.
I think the Bengals are also in a more difficult spot, having just faced a physical and tough Titans team in a contest that went down to the wire. Conversely, the Chiefs barely broke a sweat in their win over a depleted Rams team. It’s rare to see the Chiefs as a narrow FG or less favorite. I think this week is a great time to capitalize on that opportunity.
Washington @ NY Giants +2.5: I’m taking a second swing at the hot Commanders who come in as winners of 5 of their last 6 games. The Giants should be the more desperate team, as they fight to get back on track in the NFC playoff picture.
I think the Giants should win this game with their blitz pressure. No team has blitzed more than Wink Martindale’s defense (42.30%). This strategy should payoff against Taylor Heinicke, as he has struggled against blitz pressure in his past. Heinicke has been blitzed 10 or more times in just 4 of his last 9 games. The results of these scenarios have been poor:
|
Opponent |
# of Times Blitzed |
QB Rating |
Sacks |
Interceptions |
|
Cowboys |
12.00 |
55.70 |
4.00 |
1.00 |
|
Cowboys |
14.00 |
28.80 |
4.00 |
2.00 |
|
Packers |
12.00 |
85.50 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
|
Eagles |
10.00 |
66.90 |
3.00 |
1.00 |
Expect Martindale and the Giants defense to bring the pressure as they almost always do.
The Giants offense has struggled in their recent down stretch. I think they need to get the ball to Barkley more, like they had done early in the season. He’s averaged just 16 touches per game over the last 2. I think he needs to be more involved in the passing game, as he’s only seen 26 yards receiving over the same 2 week span. Darius Slayton should have some opportunities vs. this Commanders secondary which has been vulnerable to big passing plays. Washington ranks just 24th in yards allowed per reception at 10.8. I think Daniel Jones needs to have some downfield throwing success in this game.
Miami +4 @ San Francisco: The Dolphins face a tough test against a 49ers team that many people think have Super Bowl aspirations in the NFC. This week, however, I think Miami has solid value as a 4 point dog. The Dolphins offensive line will have its hands full facing off against the talented Niners D-line led by Nick Bosa. I have confidence that Mike McDaniel will be able to draw up a creative game plan against his former team, which he should know like the back of his hand. The Niners defense has been excellent almost all season, but they were exposed by the Chiefs explosive offense who lit them up for 44 points.
While the San Francisco front 7 is loaded with stud players, I think they can be had in the secondary. The 49ers simply haven’t seen any players with the caliber of speed that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle bring. I think if Tua gets rid of the ball quickly, he should be in good shape with Hill and Waddle in space. The Dolphins should look closely at the film of the Chiefs game. Patrick Mahomes who is made famous by his scrambling ability, had 0 scrambles in that entire game. He got rid of the ball extremely quickly, and let his receivers do the work after the catch. I think the Dolphins certainly have the creative minds on their offense to limit the amount of time Tua holds onto the ball.
San Francisco’s offense is at full throttle when its running game is effective. I think the Dolphins are catching a break as Eli Mitchell is back on IR, and Christian McCaffery is now battling a knee ailment. Without their two best runners at full strength, I think the Niners will have to rely more on Jimmy Garoppolo, which certainly has had mixed results. Garoppolo’s two worst games were against Denver and Kansas City. In both of these contests, he didn’t have a running game to lean on. I think the aggressive secondaries took away his shorter passes and forced him to hold onto the ball longer leading to 9 sacks in the combined two games. Miami’s secondary is certainly aggressive and willing to play man up defense, notably behind Xavien Howard. This can be a dangerous strategy, but I think it has thrown Garoppolo off his game once he starts overthinking things. Also, look for Bradley Chubb to be a factor in the pass rush for the Dolphins. Since he got to Miami, he’s had 1.5 sacks and 4 QB hits in the 3 games that he’s played. Miami would be wise to send him across right tackle Chris McGlinchey, as opposed to challenging Trent Williams on the left.
Given all of that, I think Miami as a FG+ dog is the play to make. The Dolphins have yet to lose a game this season that Tua has started and finished. They have also averaged just under 34 points on their recent 4 game winning streak. This is an explosive offense that I’m not even sure the best defense in the NFL can slow down.
Random Thoughts:
- I like the Jets on the road against Minnesota getting a FG. The defensive line should overpower Minnesota, and force Cousins into some mistakes.
- Tennessee might have a favorable matchup against the Eagles this week. Philly has struggled against run heavy teams, and no team loves to run more than Vrabel’s Titans. 5-6 points, feels like a lot.
- I can’t stomach taking the Bronocs again…. But that giant line is probably too much for the Ravens.
- I’ll always look to fade Tom Brady as a favorite vs. the Saints, but it’s hard to get excited about anyone in the NFC South right now.
- Deshaun Watson finally makes his return against his former team. I think the best play is to sit back and watch the chaos unfold…
- I’m leaning Chargers as they are narrow favorites against the Raiders, but the games between these two teams have been too close to call the past few seasons.
Good luck everyone!
