“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Kansas City |
Denver |
(2.23) |
9.50 |
11.73 |
Denver |
|
Houston |
Dallas |
(7.80) |
(16.00) |
8.20 |
Houston |
|
Carolina |
Seattle |
(12.03) |
(4.00) |
8.03 |
Seattle |
|
Cleveland |
Cincinnati |
(12.93) |
(6.00) |
6.93 |
Cincinnati |
|
Las Vegas |
LA Rams |
10.17 |
6.00 |
4.17 |
Las Vegas |
|
Tampa Bay |
San Francisco |
0.43 |
(3.00) |
3.43 |
Tampa Bay |
|
Baltimore |
Pittsburgh |
0.90 |
(2.50) |
3.40 |
Baltimore |
|
NY Jets |
Buffalo |
(6.37) |
(9.50) |
3.13 |
NY Jets |
|
Minnesota |
Detroit |
(4.83) |
(2.50) |
2.33 |
Detroit |
|
Jacksonville |
Tennessee |
(1.80) |
(4.00) |
2.20 |
Jacksonville |
|
Philadelphia |
NY Giants |
8.70 |
7.00 |
1.70 |
Philadelphia |
|
Miami |
LA Chargers |
2.07 |
3.50 |
1.43 |
LA Chargers |
|
New England |
Arizona |
2.27 |
2.00 |
0.27 |
New England |
**The Money Zone is 43-36 ATS (54.43%) in 2022**
Money Zone picks are Las Vegas, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, NY Jets, Detroit, & Jacksonville
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 27-22 ATS (55.10% for 2022)**
Tampa Bay +3.5 @ San Francisco: I don’t think anyone could have predicted that we would see Brock Purdy as a FG+ favorite in his first career start against the greatest quarterback of all-time… but here we are.
The 49ers remain red hot coming off their victory over Miami. The defense was able to shake up Tua and the Dolphin offense as they pressured him throughout the game. This week, the Niners defense will again face a patch work offensive line. However, I believe no quarterback has shown an ability to overcome poor offensive line play like Brady. His ability to diagnose a defense and exploit matchups is unparalleled. Although the Bucs offense has been asleep for the majority of the season, I think they will muster enough plays in the short game to Chris Godwin and the running backs to generate some scoring drives. If Tampa is able to get in the endzone two times, I think that should be more than enough to cover a +3.5 spread in what should be a very low scoring game.
I think Tampa Bay wins this game with its defense. The cornerstones of this defense are at the second level in linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David. The 49ers offense is built around yards after the catch, and I think Tampa has one of the best tackling defenses in the NFL. Short and intermediate passes to Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery are what drive San Francisco’s offense. I think Tampa’s secondary and linebackers are better equipped to handle this approach than just about any other defense in the NFL. With unproven Brock Purdy under center, I think you’ll see lots of blitz pressure from Todd Bowles. In a low-scoring affair, I trust Tom Brady to play a clean game far more than the last pick of the NFL draft making his first start.
Lastly, it’s hard not to bet Tom Brady as an underdog. Since he joined the Bucs in 2020, he’s 5-1 ATS as an underdog (highest winning % in the league during that span). They’ve also covered the spread by an average margin of 11.6 points per game in these situations.
Baltimore +2.5 @ Pittsburgh: I write this article at least once per year… Value in the Ravens/Steelers rivalry is almost always on the underdog. I see this week no differently:
|
Season |
Game Winner |
Score |
Spread |
Winner ATS |
|
2019 |
Baltimore |
26-23 |
Balt -3.5 |
Underdog |
|
2019 |
Baltimore |
28-10 |
Pit -2 |
Underdog |
|
2020 |
Steelers |
28-24 |
Balt -4 |
Underdog |
|
2020 |
Steelers |
19-14 |
Pit -10 |
Underdog |
|
2021 |
Steelers |
20-19 |
Balt -4.5 |
Underdog |
|
2021 |
Steelers |
16-13 |
Balt -3.5 |
Underdog |
5 out of the last 6 matchups have been 1 score games. This week, I think the Ravens possess valuable elements that make them a strong underdog in this matchup. Baltimore has a much better track record of ground success than the Steelers. Baltimore has averaged 5.2 yards per carry, and Tyler Huntley’s mobility maintains the same offensive scheme that they use with Lamar Jackson. Baltimore also relies heavily on its run game as evidenced by their 30.6 rushing attempts per game (8th most in the league).
I think this season, Baltimore has the more aggressive defense. The Ravens average 1.7 takeaways per game, and Kenny Pickett has been loose with the ball at times. Pickett has thrown 8 interceptions in the 8 games that he started. The struggling Steelers offense ranks 28th in points per game at 17.8 and 30th in yards per play with 4.8.
Another thing I can’t overlook in this matchup is the Ravens advantage in the kicking game. With Chris Boswell out, the Steelers have had to rely on Matthew Wright. Wright has been solid for Pittsburgh going 15 of 18 on the season, but on the windy Heinz Field he is just 6 of 9. Tucker hasn’t missed a kick at Pittsburgh since 2012 and is 50/52 in this rivalry! Insane numbers… In a game that should be difficult for offenses to gain traction, having the better kicker should be a huge advantage. Weather could also be a factor as there is a chance of a wintry mix with the temps in the high 30’s.
Lastly, like Tampa, Baltimore is also a phenomenal underdog bet. As underdogs since 2020, the Ravens are 8-2 ATS (80%) the second highest mark behind the Bucs.
Minnesota @ Detroit -2.5: The Lions offense is scorching again. Across their last 4 games they have averaged 31.75 points per contest, which includes a 25 point performance vs. Buffalo. I think this trend correlates with Amon-Ra St. Brown’s return to full strength. He has been nothing short of fantastic averaging 10 targets, 9 catches, and 107 yards per game during this span. I think Detroit will again have a juicy matchup against a Vikings defense that has given up yards in droves. Over the last 3 weeks, Minnesota’s defense has given up an average of 29+ points per game (30th) and allowed 6.5 yards per play (30th). While Detroit’s defense has certainly had struggles of its own this year, they have started to play better during their 4 out of 5 winning streak. I think the biggest thing they have turned around during this 5 game hot streak is their ability to force turnovers. They have forced 9 during this span, something that they have struggled to do for years. When the offense is this hot, all it should take is a turnover or two to completely take over the game.
Minnesota has the ability to be an explosive offense, but Kirk Cousins’ play has been rocky at best for the last month plus. In the last 5 games, he has posted a QB rating below 83, four times. This is likely due to the immense pressure that he has faced with injuries to the Viking offensive line. He’s been sacked 16 times on this bumpy streak of performances.
The big question for the Lions will be, How can they slow down Justin Jefferson? I think they could be in a solid position if they use the same type of game plan that they used against Stefon Diggs on Thanksgiving. It’s impossible to shut down these elite receivers completely, but they were able to hold Diggs to 77 yards on 8 catches, but it required an inefficient 15 targets. Jeff Okudah has played better football as of late in the secondary, and he could be part of a package of defenders thrown at Jefferson. In the first matchup in week 3, Jefferson had his least effective game of the season with just 3 catches and 14 yards. If they can keep him anywhere close to that, Detroit should come out on top.
Jared Goff has had success in this divisional matchup as a Lion. Since he came over from the Rams, Goff is 3-0 ATS against Minnesota. I think you could make a strong case that the Lions are the better team at the moment and justify the 2.5 mark on the game.
Las Vegas -6 @ LA Rams: The wheels continue to fall off on the Rams for the 2022 season. After coming up just short of upsetting Seattle last week, I think now is a great time to fade a team that is quickly becoming one of the worst in the NFL. With losses to key players like Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, Allen Robinson, and now their backup QB, there aren’t many players with NFL talent left to suit up. Whether it’s Bryce Perkins or freshly signed retread Baker Mayfield, I think the Rams are in a near impossible position to succeed at quarterback tomorrow night. LA has been brutal on offense as their quarterbacks continue to get pounded behind their anemic offensive line. Both Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby should be able to tee off on whoever gets the start under center for the Rams. Only the Giants have faced more pressure as Rams QB’s have been under fire more than 27% of pass plays, and they’ve been sacked at a 9.46% rate (30th in the NFL). These numbers have continued to get worse over the last 3 games, as the sack rate has ballooned to 12.36%. It’s hard to envision a competitive game on Thursday night as it appears the Rams have essentially waived the white flag on the season.
I think the opposite can be said about Josh McDaniels’ Raiders. It looked like their season was all but over at 2-7, but after ripping off 3 straight victories, they are still alive in the AFC. They’ve gotten elite level production from their top 2 offensive stars Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. If you’re looking for a Davante Adams/Jalen Ramsey matchup, Adams has obliterated Ramsey in the previous two times they faced off. In the combined two matchups, Adams has 17 catches on 19 targets for 170 yards. If they get paired up on the outside, Carr should fire away. No running back is hotter than Jacobs right now. While the Rams run defense has been good in 2022, I think they will eventually get worn down in this game. With limited offensive production, I’d expect the defense to be on the field for an excessive amount of time.
During the Raiders winning streak they have led the NFL in yards per play at 7.0 and are 4th in points at 29.7. I like Las Vegas to stay hot and win by double digits this week.
Random Thoughts:
- I think Miami should be in a solid rebound spot, but it’s hard to fade the Chargers at 3.5. They’ve come storming back at the end of these games far too often.
- The Giants seem to catch Philly off guard at least once per year… the 7 number feels a little too big for me.
- I’m not sure how you can touch New England right now. A lot of negativity, and lack of confidence in the coaching staff tells me to steer clear. The same can probably be said about the Cardinals as well.
- Joe Burrow remains red hot, but the Browns have been his kryptonite. He has yet to win against Myles Garrett & Co., and I think 6 points is a pretty sizeable spread. I’d avoid.
- Jacksonville again finds its way into the Money Zone…. They’ve played a lot of underwhelming games, and the Titans continue to dominate the AFC South.
Good luck everyone!
