“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Kansas City |
Houston |
6.43 |
14.00 |
7.57 |
Houston |
|
Dallas |
Jacksonville |
(2.17) |
4.00 |
6.17 |
Jacksonville |
|
New England |
Las Vegas |
(4.20) |
1.00 |
5.20 |
Las Vegas |
|
Arizona |
Denver |
(7.97) |
(3.00) |
4.97 |
Denver |
|
NY Giants |
Washington |
0.10 |
(4.50) |
4.60 |
NY Giants |
|
San Francisco |
Seattle |
(0.77) |
3.50 |
4.27 |
Seattle |
|
Detroit |
NY Jets |
(3.97) |
(1.00) |
2.97 |
NY Jets |
|
Philadelphia |
Chicago |
11.37 |
9.00 |
2.37 |
Philadelphia |
|
Tennessee |
LA Chargers |
(0.80) |
(3.00) |
2.20 |
Tennessee |
|
Indianapolis |
Minnesota |
(5.47) |
(4.00) |
1.47 |
Minnesota |
|
Miami |
Buffalo |
(6.00) |
(7.00) |
1.00 |
Miami |
|
Cincinnati |
Tampa Bay |
4.33 |
3.50 |
0.83 |
Cincinnati |
|
Pittsburgh |
Carolina |
(2.87) |
(2.50) |
0.37 |
Carolina |
|
Atlanta |
New Orleans |
(4.83) |
(4.50) |
0.33 |
New Orleans |
|
LA Rams |
Green Bay |
(6.90) |
(7.00) |
0.10 |
LA Rams |
|
Baltimore |
Cleveland |
(2.97) |
(3.00) |
0.03 |
Baltimore |
**The Money Zone is 47-38 ATS (55.29%) in 2022**
Money Zone picks are Las Vegas, Denver, NY Giants, Seattle, NY Jets, Philadelphia, & Tennessee
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 29-24 ATS (54.72% for 2022)**
New England @ Las Vegas +1: Call me crazy, but I’m backing the Raiders after their unfathomable loss to the Rams last week. This game has been Josh McDaniels’ Super Bowl all year, and this might feel like the only game left on the schedule for the Raiders that has any juice. The Raiders coaching staff is filled with ex-Patriots, and the motivation to get back at their old team is through the roof. These teams matched up over the summer in joint practices where according to all reports, the Raiders dominated all first team reps. Normally, I put zero stock into something like this, but in a matchup of former coaching associates, I think the mental edge might be tangible for this one week.
Despite New England’s win over Arizona, their offensive problems persist. The Patriots offense is broken, and they haven’t shown that they can hang with any team that scores more than 17 points. On top of those issues, Rhamondre Stevenson and Devante Parker were injured and seem to be trending towards doubtful for this matchup. I have no confidence that this Patriots offense can win a shootout. The offensive line continues to be in shambles, and Maxx Crosby maybe playing as well as any pass rusher in the NFL. If you thought you saw a lot of screen passes on Monday night, get ready for this week…
The Patriots defense has been great at hammering bad quarterbacks (Trubisky, Brissett, Zach Wilson 2X, Ehlinger, Goff, and now Colt McCoy), but they’ve lost any time the opposing quarterback showed up with a pulse. I think Derek Carr is in line to have success this week. He should be getting both Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow back, and McDaniels should have a solid offensive game plan against a defense that he used to see on a daily basis. The Patriots defense also had injuries of its own with Devin McCourty and rookie corner Jack Jones also leaving the game on Monday night. The Patriots should have an advantage over a below average Raiders offensive line, but I believe the Raiders will be prepared for it.
Detroit @ NY Jets -1: It seems that no one is hotter than the explosive Lions who are fresh off 3 straight offensive clinics at home. Goff has been phenomenal during this stretch putting up great numbers through the air. However, when it comes to outdoor, cold weather games, I will fade Jared Goff every opportunity that I get. Since Goff has played his career for two dome teams and largely played in a division with other dome teams, he hasn’t been exposed to the elements very often. I went back and tried to find situations where he played in a game where the temperature was in the 30’s on the road. Here were the few that I found:
|
Date |
Opponent |
Temperature |
Yards / Att |
QB Rating |
|
11/13/2022 |
Chicago |
34 degrees |
9.08 |
113.60 |
|
11/20/2022 |
NY Giants |
35 degrees |
6.35 |
83.00 |
|
11/14/2021 |
Pittsburgh |
37 degrees |
4.56 |
67.70 |
|
12/9/2018 |
Chicago |
29 degrees |
4.09 |
19.10 |
The Steelers and Bears games listed in the chart above were truly two of the uglier games I have witnessed. The reason I feel so strongly about this trend is that he has been on the record of saying that he hates the cold weather and was never really exposed to it at the college level. Now this season, it appears that he has overcome some of his issues in the Lions wins over the Bears and Giants, but I think playing 3 straight dome games will knock him off any rhythm he may have gained. 2 of the 3 games were also against very soft defenses in the Jaguars and Vikings. On Sunday, he’ll be going up against the #2 pass defense in the NFL in passer rating allowed. I think he’s in for a long day full of sacks and turnovers.
Mike White appears to be in line to start despite his rib injury. He has played with a lot of heart and guts that the team is clearly rallying around. I think this is a winnable game for them in a must-win scenario to stay relevant in the AFC playoff picture. Garrett Wilson has emerged since White took over, and that should continue as he goes against a Lions pass defense that just surrendered 400+ yards to Kirk Cousins. I think they’ve also found a suitable replacement for Breece Hall in Zonovan Knight. He has strung together 3 straight effective games both running and catching the ball. The Jets should be available to move the ball however they choose on Sunday.
**Mike White has been ruled out (update as of 12/16). I still like the Jets to win on defense, but feel free to reconsider w/ the uncertainty elements that accompany Wilson.**
Tennessee +3 @ LA Chargers: The Titans have stumbled a bit the past few weeks, but I have great confidence in Mike Vrabel to right the ship. He should have a great matchup in the running game as the Chargers possess the league’s worst run defense in yards per carry at 5.4. Derrick Henry should have a signature performance as he has thrived against these teams with weaker fronts. The Houston Texans are one of those teams and he obliterated them again earlier this year with a 200+ yard outing. The Chargers are likely to still be without Derwin James and Joey Bosa, their clear best two defensive players. I don’t think Miami had enough patience with their run game against LA last Sunday, which shouldn’t be an issue for the run-heavy Titans.
It looks like Justin Herbert really got it going again last week. He played excellent in the win over Miami as he constantly evaded pressure and got the ball to his explosive playmakers. However, I think it’s hard to live that way in the NFL. The last 4 games he’s been sacked 20 times and has been pressured on average of about 30% of drop backs during this span. For the Titans, it appears that they will likely get defensive lineman Denico Autry back to pair up with Jeffrey Simmons. They should be able to dominate on the inside. I think it’s hard to win as a FG favorite having so many problems on the offensive line with a leaky run defense.
Tennessee just needs to dictate the tempo in this game. I think it would be wise to open up with a lot of play-action throws to Chig Okonkwo at tight end, who has been very dynamic over the past few weeks. If they could get Treylon Burks back on the outside at receiver, that would also be huge. I still have major questions about the Chargers pass defense despite their success against the Dolphins. Tennessee needs to play from ahead, and they should have a great opportunity to, against a Chargers team that isn’t built to stop a team like the Titans.
The trends are in perfect alignment on this one…. Fade Chargers as a favorite (12-15 ATS since 2020, 44.4%) and back Tennessee as an underdog (13-7 ATS since 2020, 65.0%)
NY Giants +4.5 @ Washington: Should I re-write my article from week 13? I won’t do that, but I do want to revisit a piece that I wrote:
“I think the Giants should win this game with their blitz pressure. No team has blitzed more than Wink Martindale’s defense (42.30%). This strategy should payoff against Taylor Heinicke, as he has struggled against blitz pressure in his past. Heinicke has been blitzed 10 or more times in just 4 of his last 9 games. The results of these scenarios have been poor:
|
Opponent |
# of Times Blitzed |
QB Rating |
Sacks |
Interceptions |
|
Cowboys |
12.00 |
55.70 |
4.00 |
1.00 |
|
Cowboys |
14.00 |
28.80 |
4.00 |
2.00 |
|
Packers |
12.00 |
85.50 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
|
Eagles |
10.00 |
66.90 |
3.00 |
1.00 |
Expect Martindale and the Giants defense to bring the pressure as they almost always do.”
Well, it turns out they did Blitz Heinicke in that week 13 game, as they sent pressure 13 times and sacked him 5 times. He tried to throw multiple picks, but the Giants had a few missed opportunities bounce off their hands. Pro Football Reference, had Heinicke marked for 9 “bad throws” which was his highest mark of the season. He was also pressured on 36% of dropbacks, his second highest mark of the year. Despite all this pressure, Heinicke forced overtime with a late TD (but failed to cover the spread!!).
I don’t think much will change for the Giants defensive game plan in the rematch. Wink Martindale is who he is at this point, and that’s a guy who sends the house whenever he can. This week, I think they get Heinicke for a turnover or two.
I think the Giants remain the better bet getting 4.5 points. I’m just not sure I can trust either team as a prohibitive favorite. The rivalry has been very close as of late with the following results:
|
Year |
NY Giants |
Washington |
Margin of Victory |
|
2020 |
20 |
19 |
1 |
|
2020 |
23 |
20 |
3 |
|
2021 |
29 |
30 |
-1 |
|
2021 |
7 |
22 |
-15 |
|
2022 |
20 |
20 |
0 |
The margin of victory has been 3 points or less in 4 of their last 5 matchups. I think it’s appropriate to use the “Ravens/Steelers” approach that I implemented, and take the underdog anytime there is a FG+ spread. These teams just know each other very well, and often play a rock-fight type game that usually ends up close.
Random Thoughts:
- Denver is a strong lean for me. I think there’s only 1 reliable unit in that game, and that’s the Denver defense. Everything else is brutal + the Cardinals have likely given up on the year.
- Philly is a machine… They’ve cleaned up on bad teams all year. I wouldn’t expect anything different this week.
- Seattle seems to have value for me…. But I can’t bring myself to lose to the 49ers for a third straight week….
- Money Zone Note: Road underdogs in the Money Zone are 22-13 ATS so far this year (62.86%) teams that fit that scenario this week: Tennessee & NY Giants.
- Battling the Flu over here at Shorestein Headquarters…. Seems like NFL handicapping is the only cure!
Good luck everyone!
