“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Seattle |
Kansas City |
(0.27) |
(10.00) |
9.73 |
Seattle |
|
Tampa Bay |
Arizona |
0.10 |
7.50 |
7.40 |
Arizona |
|
Cincinnati |
New England |
7.40 |
3.00 |
4.40 |
Cincinnati |
|
Philadelphia |
Dallas |
(0.70) |
(5.00) |
4.30 |
Philadelphia |
|
New Orleans |
Cleveland |
1.10 |
(2.50) |
3.60 |
New Orleans |
|
Green Bay |
Miami |
(6.97) |
(3.50) |
3.47 |
Miami |
|
Las Vegas |
Pittsburgh |
(5.07) |
(2.50) |
2.57 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Atlanta |
Baltimore |
(5.00) |
(7.50) |
2.50 |
Atlanta |
|
LA Chargers |
Indianapolis |
3.03 |
5.00 |
1.97 |
Indianapolis |
|
NY Giants |
Minnesota |
(2.10) |
(4.00) |
1.90 |
NY Giants |
|
Detroit |
Carolina |
1.33 |
3.00 |
1.67 |
Carolina |
|
Denver |
LA Rams |
4.00 |
2.50 |
1.50 |
Denver |
|
Buffalo |
Chicago |
7.60 |
8.50 |
0.90 |
Chicago |
|
Houston |
Tennessee |
(4.83) |
(4.00) |
0.83 |
Tennessee |
|
Washington |
San Francisco |
(7.57) |
(7.00) |
0.57 |
San Francisco |
|
Jacksonville |
NY Jets |
(1.50) |
(1.50) |
– |
Jacksonville |
**The Money Zone is 50-41 ATS (54.95%) in 2022**
Money Zone picks are Cincinnati, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Miami, Pittsburgh, & Atlanta
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 31-25 ATS (55.36% for 2022)**
Cincinnati -3 @ New England: Fading the dwindling Patriots remains an easy call for me. New England’s offense is still broken despite facing one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last week in Vegas. Mac Jones continues to lose confidence in his surrounding cast and most notably his coaching staff and coordinators. I think he faces a daunting test in going against the Bengals front seven which has played at an elite level for most of the season. Cincinnati has been excellent at containing the run as they allow just 4.2 yards per carry (8th in the NFL). The pass defense has been equally as effective allowing just an 81.50 average passer rating to opposing quarterbacks (6th in the NFL). With both factions of the defense playing well, I find it hard to believe that the sputtering Patriots offense can score enough points to keep this game competitive. I think the Patriots are in a fragile state of mind coming off one of the most shocking and embarrassing losses in recent memory. If they face adversity to start the game, I think this game could get ugly quick.
This line was as high as 4.5/5 points at some sports books earlier in the week, but it has been bet down to a FG. Bettors continue to show faith in the New England operation, but I just don’t see it at all. This team has been completely outclassed whenever they have faced playoff caliber teams all season. Miami, Baltimore, Minnesota, and Buffalo are the playoff teams that the Patriots have faced so far this year, and all games were lost mostly in a non-competitive fashion.
The one area New England can present problems is with its pass rush. Cincinnati’s offensive line has been exposed at times throughout the season. However, they have been much improved over the last month. In a stretch vs. Tennessee, Kansas City, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay, Burrow was only sacked 5 times. During the Bengals 6 game winning streak, Cincinnati has averaged 30.5 points. New England simply hasn’t shown any evidence that they can compete in a shootout type atmosphere against an explosive offense. I think Ja’Marr Chase is in line for a huge day.
Philadelphia +5 @ Dallas: I think there is great value on a well-balanced Eagles team despite the short term loss of Jalen Hurts. I think the Eagles’ players will feel disrespected by being labeled as significant underdogs in a season where they have been by far the most dominant, consistent force in the league. I think the oddsmakers have underrated the talent and depth of the entire Eagles’ roster. I don’t expect 1 injury to derail the momentum that Philadelphia has gained throughout the 2022 season. I think if you look back at their Super Bowl winning team, they were in just about the same situation as they had an MVP caliber quarterback go down with injury, and they found themselves in underdog situations for the rest of the year. They continued to fight through the adversity and won as underdogs all the way to the Super Bowl. Expect a similar fight from this team against Dallas.
Gardner Minshew has shown that he can step in on a short term basis and play an effective game. Last year, in week 13 he filled in for Hurts and led the Eagles to a 33-18 win over the Jets in an important game with playoff implications. He finished with 2 TD’s, an 80% completion rate, and a QB rating of 133+. This week, he will step into a team with a loaded wide receiver group, and play behind what is likely the best offensive line in football. Expect the Eagles to score points and hang with Dallas. Dallas was also exposed on the ground in Jacksonville last week allowing over 7 yards per rush. With Philadelphia’s strong offensive line, they should be able to generate an effective ground game.
On the other side of the ball, the defense should play with a lot of pride. Interior defensive lineman Jordan Davis has returned, and the Eagles pass rush is heating up. Over the last 3 weeks, the Eagles defense has sacked quarterbacks at an astounding 19.19% rate. They now lead the league in that category. Dak Prescott has continued his erratic play. He has thrown 7 interceptions over the past 4 games. The Eagles have feasted on turnovers this season, as they average 1.8 turnovers forced per game. I think it’s hard to trust a team at close to a TD favorite to cover a spread when they have shown significant ball security problems.
Green Bay @ Miami -3.5: I think Miami will get back on track on Christmas Day. The Dolphins fought valiantly in an out of character cold-weather game against a team with Super Bowl aspirations. The Dolphins showed me a lot, as they had great success running the ball with Raheem Mostert, something that they haven’t done a lot of this season. They should be able to expose the light Packers defense with its ground game. Green Bay should be a great matchup for Mike McDaniel’s stretch-run/play-action game. I think there will be multiple opportunities for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to run for huge gains in open space. The Dolphins have been a phenomenal home team this year as they are 5-1 in Miami and have an average point differential of +8.3, while on the road they are -6.1. Tua has a 7/0 TD/INT ratio at home, and he has posted a 97 QB rating or better in 4 of his five home starts.
The defense has also been noticeably better at home as well. Here is a great comparison of some of their key metrics at home:
|
Venue |
Passer Rating Def |
Points Allowed |
Yards / Play |
|
Home |
84.6 (12th) |
15.30 (2nd) |
4.80 (3rd) |
|
Away |
109.90 (32nd) |
31.50 (32nd) |
6.0 (30th) |
This Miami defense should matchup well against Green Bay. I think Christian Wilkins has been a major factor on the interior defensive line, and Jaelan Phillips has emerged as an edge rusher for the Dolphins. The Dolphins have been exposed at times by explosive wide receivers, but I think Green Bay has the talent on the outside to give them major issues. Christian Watson has had a nice season, but Xavien Howard should be more than capable of taking him down a notch. Green Bay is now a run-heavy offense, and I think Miami is well-equipped to handle that.
The bottom line here is the Dolphins are the better team. They should have gained some confidence in their matchup with Buffalo, and this week they should come back strong. Look for Miami to score 30+.
Las Vegas @ Pittsburgh -2.5: The Steelers have quietly played some solid football over the past month. The Steelers have won 3 of the last 4, and their defense has returned to form. Pittsburgh has held its last 4 opponents to under 20 points, and they look like a strong unit again with the return of TJ Watt. I expect Pittsburgh’s defensive line to control the game against a Raiders offensive line that is dealing with all kinds of injuries. Derek Carr faced pressure on 27% of dropbacks last week vs. the Patriots, and I think that number could get even higher against a Steelers defense that has ramped up its defensive line play.
Kenny Pickett is set to return at quarterback for Pittsburgh, and I think this results in a more consistent offense. Trubisky is far too one-dimensional, and he clearly doesn’t see the field as well as Pickett. The Raiders defense has holes all across it, and I think Pittsburgh should get a productive day from its talented wide receiver group. Diontae Johnson generates some of the best separation in the entire NFL, and I think George Pickens is a great downfield compliment. The Raiders will not have answers for them in the secondary.
Pittsburgh should have a major advantage in red zone efficiency. Here is how Vegas and Pittsburgh compare:
|
Team |
Off Red Zone % |
Def Red Zone % |
|
Pittsburgh |
52.27% (20th) |
52.38% (7th) |
|
Las Vegas |
48.72% (28th) |
63.41% (26th) |
Lastly, I think Vegas continues to set itself back with penalties and critical turnovers. The Raiders are 31st in the league in penalty yardage committed, and they are coming off games in which Derek Carr threw an interception in the end zone (vs. LA) and last week threw a game-altering pick 6. Kenny Pickett, on the other hand, has played 5 consecutive games without committing a turnover. Pittsburgh looks to be the better coached team that is less likely to make a crucial mistake.
Random Thoughts:
- Money Zone Road underdogs continue to be red hot. Teams that fit this scenario are now 23-13 ATS (63.89%). Atlanta, New Orleans, and Philly are all teams in this category this week.
- Seattle is a team that I’d lean on this week. 10 points feels like a lot, as KC continues to struggle as a huge home favorite. They will more than likely win, but the defense has let teams stick around close enough to cover.
- My formula calls for Indy this week, but I think there’s a strong possibility they give up on the season after last week’s unspeakable collapse.
- The Giants appear to have some value again as FG+ dogs. Minnesota has struggled to avoid these nail-biting games.
- Washington draws a really tough game with San Francisco. I think the bet remains San Francisco or nothing. Hard to fade the 49ers at this point.
- Tough call on Detroit/Carolina. Detroit remains one of the hottest teams in the NFL, but Carolina has been a formidable as a home-dog in these spots. If I had to choose, I’d go Panthers.
Good luck everyone!
