“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Dallas |
Tennessee |
1.37 |
10.50 |
9.13 |
Tennessee |
|
Denver |
Kansas City |
(4.70) |
(12.50) |
7.80 |
Denver |
|
Miami |
New England |
2.67 |
(3.00) |
5.67 |
Miami |
|
NY Jets |
Seattle |
(3.63) |
1.50 |
5.13 |
Seattle |
|
LA Rams |
LA Chargers |
(3.60) |
(6.50) |
2.90 |
LA Rams |
|
Pittsburgh |
Baltimore |
(0.43) |
(3.00) |
2.57 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Buffalo |
Cincinnati |
3.17 |
1.00 |
2.17 |
Buffalo |
|
Carolina |
Tampa Bay |
(4.57) |
(3.00) |
1.57 |
Tampa Bay |
|
Chicago |
Detroit |
(4.47) |
(6.00) |
1.53 |
Chicago |
|
Cleveland |
Washington |
(3.17) |
(2.00) |
1.17 |
Washington |
|
Indianapolis |
NY Giants |
(7.13) |
(6.00) |
1.13 |
NY Giants |
|
Jacksonville |
Houston |
3.50 |
4.50 |
1.00 |
Houston |
|
Arizona |
Atlanta |
(4.40) |
(3.50) |
0.90 |
Atlanta |
|
New Orleans |
Philadelphia |
(7.37) |
(6.50) |
0.87 |
Philadelphia |
|
San Francisco |
Las Vegas |
10.60 |
10.00 |
0.60 |
San Francisco |
|
Minnesota |
Green Bay |
(3.30) |
(3.50) |
0.20 |
Minnesota |
**The Money Zone is 53-44 ATS (54.64%) in 2022**
Money Zone picks are Miami, Seattle, LA Rams, Pittsburgh, & Buffalo
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 33-27 ATS (55.00% for 2022)**
Buffalo -1 @ Cincinnati: I like Buffalo to prevail in what is clearly the game of the week with critical playoff implications that could play a huge role in determining who represents the AFC in the Super Bowl. Coming into the season, Buffalo was the prohibitive favorite to win the Super Bowl. After a scorching start, a Josh Allen injury scare, and a few bumps along the way, I think the Bills remain the most complete team in the NFL. While the Bills have shown that they can let their guard down at times against inferior competition, I fully expect them to take care of business on Monday night in their most important game of the season.
I think Josh Allen has delivered in the most critical games on the schedule this season. Allen was fantastic early on in the season at Kansas City, and he played equally as well in critical division-deciding games against the Dolphins and Patriots.
|
Opponent |
QB Rating |
Yards / Attempt |
Rushing Yards |
Result |
|
At Chiefs |
117.60 |
8.23 |
32.00 |
W 24-20 |
|
At Patriots |
106.00 |
6.76 |
20.00 |
W 24-10 |
|
Vs. Dolphins |
119.20 |
7.60 |
77.00 |
W 32-29 |
The Bengals enter this weekend as the hottest team in the NFL winning their last 7 games. The offense has been the catalyst for this hot streak as they have averaged a hair under 30 points per game during this span. However, in their recent win over the Patriots, they suffered a major loss in tackle La’el Collins. The continuity on the offensive line has allowed Joe Burrow to perform at an MVP-caliber level. With Collins out, I think the Bengals could face significant pressure which was what ultimately derailed the Bengals from winning a Super Bowl last season. The Bills will likely test replacement Hakeem Adeniji with lots of different looks from their deep pass rush. The last time Adeniji saw significant playing time was in the Super Bowl vs. the Rams where Von Miller exposed the Bengals on the edges all night long and Burrow was sacked 7 times.
This is a great game played by two of the NFL’s best. I think it will be a FG win in either direction, but I think Allen’s elite level play in critical games combined with the potential issues on the Bengals offensive line have me leaning towards Buffalo.
Pittsburgh +3.0 @ Baltimore: I will again lean on the underdog in this AFC North rivalry. As I pointed out in my week 14 writeup, value continues to be on the teams getting points. This remained the case in the Ravens victory over the Steelers:
|
Season |
Winner |
Score |
Spread |
Winner ATS |
|
2019 |
Baltimore |
26-23 |
Balt -3.5 |
Underdog |
|
2019 |
Baltimore |
28-10 |
Pit -2 |
Underdog |
|
2020 |
Steelers |
28-24 |
Balt -4 |
Underdog |
|
2020 |
Steelers |
19-14 |
Pit -10 |
Underdog |
|
2021 |
Steelers |
20-19 |
Balt -4.5 |
Underdog |
|
2021 |
Steelers |
16-13 |
Balt -3.5 |
Underdog |
|
2022 |
Baltimore |
16-14 |
Pit -2.5 |
Underdog |
After yet another narrow victory, this rivalry has been decided by 1 score or less in 6 of the last 7 matchups. These games also continue to be defensive struggles. The last 4 games have only yielded totals of 30, 29, 39, and 33 points between the two teams. The projected total for Sunday night now sits at just 35 points, which again has me liking the underdog in a situation where points will be hard to come by.
Pittsburgh controlled much of the Week 14 matchup, but were simply burned by unforced Mitch Trubisky interceptions. Kenny Pickett has proven to be the more consistent player who is less vulnerable to these back breaking interceptions. Pickett showed some poise in his game-winning touchdown drive over the Raiders on Christmas Eve. I think it’s possible that some momentum can carry forward into this week.
Pittsburgh’s defense has certainly returned to form since mid-November. They’ve had an impressive stretch of pass defense and ability to force turnovers which has led them to 4 wins in the last 5 games, and kept their slim playoff hopes alive:
|
Opponent |
Points Allowed |
Result |
Def. QB Rating |
Turnovers Forced |
|
Indy |
17.00 |
W 24-17 |
77.90 |
2.00 |
|
Atlanta |
16.00 |
W 19-16 |
72.70 |
1.00 |
|
Baltimore |
16.00 |
L 14-16 |
88.20 |
– |
|
Carolina |
16.00 |
W 24-16 |
108.10 |
– |
|
Las Vegas |
10.00 |
W 13-10 |
42.20 |
3.00 |
Lamar Jackson is still not practicing, which I think puts his status in doubt for Sunday night. I feel comfortable betting the Steelers regardless if he plays or not. However, if Jackson is announced that he is IN, you could see this line moving back to -3.5 or higher. For that reason, you may want to hold off on placing your bet until his status is cleared up.
LA Rams +6.5 @ LA Chargers: This is probably one of the least appealing games on the slate from a fan’s perspective, but I think there’s a solid case to make for the Rams. The Chargers have essentially locked in a playoff spot and Kansas City has already clinched the AFC West. Normally, I don’t put a ton of stock in what a team has to play for, but I think given the Chargers injury-riddled season, they will be careful with their key players on both sides of the ball. I think there’s a strong likelihood the Chargers will limit Austin Ekeler’s snaps given how important he is to the offensive success of the team. Ekeler has shouldered an immense workload, and could certainly use some rest. Both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have been in and out of the lineup all year, and I could certainly see a scenario where their snaps are limited. Defensively, their standout safety Derwin James has also been injured for most of the season, and the Chargers would be wise to manage his snap count as well. It just doesn’t make sense for the Chargers to put all these banged up players in harms’ way for an essentially meaningless in the AFC playoff picture. The Chargers are also playing on short rest coming off a Monday Night Football game. I think that’s even more of an incentive to limit snap counts this week.
On the other side, the Rams have garnered some momentum since picking up Baker Mayfield. Mayfield certainly has tons to play for given that his future NFL career may ride on how he performs down the stretch. Mayfield was just about flawless on Christmas Day as he posted a near perfect QB rating and averaged over 8 yards per attempt passing. This was done against a Broncos pass defense that had played at an elite level for much of the 2022 season. I think Mayfield has clearly embraced life under Sean McVay. Cam Akers has also revitalized himself over the past few games. Akers ran for over a hundred yards and 3 TD’s against Denver and he has averaged over 5 yards per rush over the last two games. The Chargers have been one of the worst defenders of the run in 2022, and I think it could continue to be a problem on Sunday.
Don’t overlook one of the most boring games on the board… I think this is one of the best bets of the week.
NY Jets @ Seattle +1.5: These two teams have both found themselves in a must win situation to keep their playoff hopes alive. I think the Seahawks are the better choice with two teams that have faded quickly.
Seattle is the better candidate to get efficient quarterback play in my mind. Geno Smith has been reliable for much of the year, while the Jets quarterback situation is rocky at best. Yes, it looks like Mike White may make his return this week, but how long will he be able to last is the question. White suffered a significant rib injury two weeks ago, and he struggled to find medical clearance to return to action. I think even the slightest of hits could find him back on the sidelines and that would certainly spell doom for the Jets who have no other answer at quarterback given the Zach Wilson fiasco. I respect White for attempting to tough his way through this injury, but I don’t believe he can remain effective in his current state. White also hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire in his starts this year. He was great against a bad Chicago defense, but against a poor Vikings pass defense indoors, he finished with just a 59 passer rating and threw 2 picks. He’s certainly an upgrade from the inept Zach Wilson, but I’m not sure that’s good enough in this situation.
I believe Seattle has the more explosive offensive players and reliable offense. Tyler Lockett is looking more likely to return from his finger injury, and I think the Metcalf/Lockett duo has the better chance to outmatch the Jets young corners. Rookie running back Kenneth Walker has also been quiet for the last month, but I think he has too much ability to remain unheard from for long. Since Breece Hall’s injury, the Jets offense is Garrett Wilson or bust. Seattle’s rookie corner Tariq Woolen should play with a lot of pride lining up across from the consensus defensive rookie of the year Sauce Gardner.
I think the Seahawks squeak this one out in a Pete Carroll-eque fashion.
Random Thoughts:
- Looks like Tua is doubtful for Sunday against the Patriots. I still like the Dolphins under Teddy Bridgewater. The Dolphins are the far more talented team in my mind, and the Patriots offense continues to struggle. Miami’s exotic blitz looks are the last thing Mac Jones & the offensive line want to see right now.
- I like Cleveland to beat Washington this week. The Commanders aren’t sure who their quarterback is again, and I think Myles Garrett will make them even less sure. The Browns defense has played significantly better as of late.
- Jacksonville remains red hot. I think they will stay hot against a Texans team that’s coming off a win they never expected. I’d look for a Houston let down.
- Indianapolis is the most disgusting offensive operation I can remember seeing. I can’t back this team at any number.
- Detroit should bounce back against Chicago at home. The Bears defense will likely struggle against a high octane Lions team. The number feels a little high at 6, but I think Goff & Co. will get it done in the dome.
- It looks like Derek Carr may have played his last game as a Raider. Jarrett Stidham is getting a go at quarterback and he faces the best defense in football…. I’ve seen Stidham play a few times in New England…. Take the Niners….
Good luck everyone!
