“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
NY Jets |
Cleveland |
(12.93) |
(6.00) |
6.93 |
Cleveland |
|
Chicago |
Green Bay |
(14.64) |
(10.00) |
4.64 |
Green Bay |
|
Indianapolis |
Jacksonville |
7.14 |
4.00 |
3.14 |
Indianapolis |
|
Houston |
Denver |
(7.31) |
(10.00) |
2.69 |
Houston |
|
Tennessee |
Buffalo |
(7.37) |
(10.00) |
2.63 |
Tennessee |
|
Cincinnati |
Dallas |
10.08 |
7.50 |
2.58 |
Cincinnati |
|
Minnesota |
Philadelphia |
(4.85) |
(2.50) |
2.35 |
Philadelphia |
|
Washington |
Detroit |
(3.57) |
(1.50) |
2.07 |
Detroit |
|
LA Chargers |
Kansas City |
(5.83) |
(4.00) |
1.83 |
Kansas City |
|
Seattle |
San Francisco |
(11.21) |
(9.50) |
1.71 |
San Francisco |
|
Tampa Bay |
New Orleans |
1.03 |
2.50 |
1.47 |
New Orleans |
|
New England |
Pittsburgh |
(0.35) |
1.00 |
1.35 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Miami |
Baltimore |
(2.75) |
(3.50) |
0.75 |
Miami |
|
Atlanta |
LA Rams |
(11.24) |
(10.50) |
0.74 |
LA Rams |
|
Carolina |
NY Giants |
(2.31) |
(2.00) |
0.31 |
NY Giants |
|
Arizona |
Las Vegas |
(5.74) |
(6.00) |
0.26 |
Arizona |
**The Money Zone is 4-3 (57.14%) in 2022** Money Zone picks are Green Bay, Indy, Houston, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Philadelphia & Detroit
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 3-1 (75.00% for 2022)**
Tennessee +10 @ Buffalo: The Bills inarguably looked like the best team in football to open the gates. They delivered on the offseason hype train and crushed the defending champs in Week 1. However, the NFL can fluctuate wildly from week to week, and I think a double digit spread over a team that was the #1 seed in the AFC is an overreaction by the betting markets.
Tennessee also fits the profile of a team that has historically given this Bills team fits. Power running teams have performed very well against the Bills over the past few seasons. Here are some notable performances against Buffalo that make this game look a lot different:
|
Opponent |
Total Rush Yards Allowed |
Yards per Rush Allowed |
Final Score |
|
Colts 2021 |
264.00 |
5.74 |
L 41-15 |
|
Patriots 2021 (wind bowl) |
222.00 |
4.83 |
L 14-10 |
|
Titans 2021 |
146.00 |
6.64 |
L 34-31 |
|
Titans 2020 |
139.00 |
4.09 |
L 42-16 |
Buffalo has an excellent pass defense built around speed and quickness to the quarterback. The undersized front occasionally gets exposed by teams that are willing to ram it down their throat. This includes the Titans who have averaged 38 points in their last two games over the past two seasons. Buffalo’s defense hasn’t changed much personnel wise since 2020.
As I mentioned in Week 1 during my ramblings, the Titans have no problem taking on a challenge as an underdog. They typically run into problems when they are significant favorites against inferior competition as we saw against the Giants in Week 1 and several times against bad opponents in 2021. Last season, as FG+ underdogs they were 5-0 with significant upsets over Buffalo, Seattle, Kansas City, LA Rams, and 49ers. I have a ton of confidence in Mike Vrabel to get his team in a position to slow down Josh Allen and fire up his team. I never expect to see the Titans play scared, and I certainly don’t think that they will on Monday night.
Minnesota @ Philadelphia -2.5: I love the Eagles this week in their home opener. After they narrowly escaped a trap-type game to start the season vs. the Lions, I think they have a significant advantage in the trenches vs. Minnesota. Philadelphia’s dominant, imposing offensive line should take complete control of the line of scrimmage against a Vikings front that was brutal against the rush in 2021. I can’t overlook the porous 4.7 yards per carry (31st ranked) surrendered by Minnesota last season. Very few teams in the NFL run as often and as effectively as the Eagles. Last season the Eagles were 2nd in rushing attempts per game, and 4th in yards per carry. Look for Philadelphia to control the tempo of the game and limit the Vikings number of possessions.
I think the Vikings will be a popular pick this week by the betting public because of their huge win in the opener against a divisional Packers team that they typically play well against. The offense exploded under the new guidance of coach Kevin O’Connell, and Kirk Cousins played extremely well. To me, this was more of a story on Green Bay, and their limitations on offense without Devante Adams. Against a more physical offensive line, I don’t think the Vikings defense will last.
Offensively for Minnesota, I think it’ll be a completely different story outside of the dome against a team that should get plenty of pressure up the middle. I’m expecting Jordan Davis and Fletcher Cox to blow up the pocket against a weaker offensive line than the Lions. The Vikings were ranked just 27th in pressure % allowed on offense. The pass rush should really have a chance to heat up on Monday Night.
Few teams have the tools to slow down Justin Jefferson, but I think the Eagles can certainly give it a great shot. Darius Slay and James Bradberry are one of the best 1-2 punches at corner in the NFL. With the depth at corner, and the expected pressure I think they can limit his big plays.
Cincinnati -7.5 @ Dallas: I think the Cowboys are in real trouble offensively. Dallas has nothing that they can lean on at the moment. The offensive line was decimated by free agency losses and injuries, and now they have lost Dak Prescott for the short-term future. Aside from Cee Dee Lamb, there isn’t an offensive player that requires any special attention. I think the Bengals defense should exploit this matchup all game against an inexperienced Cooper Rush.
In Week 1, the Bengals offense had a miserable day. I think most of that can be attributed to the Steelers defense and miscommunications on the offensive line. I think there’s too much talent on the offense for these problems to continue. I think if you block Micah Parsons, the Cowboys defense doesn’t have all that much that can hurt you. If Trevon Diggs matches up with Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals should throw to him all afternoon. Diggs is a risk taker for interceptions, but he has given up way too many long plays and TD’s since last season. Taking chances like that against Chase can result in game-changing plays. I think the Bengals also have an opportunity to run much like the Bucs did with Leonard Fournette. Dallas’ defensive front is built to rush the passer, but I think teams will start running right at them.
This is one of the square picks on the board, but I’m not seeing a likely scenario that keeps Dallas close in this one.
Colts -3.5 @ Jacksonville: The Colts were tripped up in an unlikely tie with an inferior divisional opponent. Going back to last season’s loss in the finale against Jacksonville, that marks two straight poor showings. I think it’s highly unlikely that Indianapolis gets caught off guard yet again by one of the perennial losers of the AFC.
Jacksonville is still one of the worst defenses in the NFL. It’s hard to win games with a defense that’s ranked 27th in yards / attempt and 29th in defensive QB rating. They have attempted to add talent in the front 7, with upgrades in pass rush and linebacker, but the secondary remains shaky at best.
Expect to see the Colts bread & butter with Jonathan Taylor seeing significant carries. In his career against the Jaguars, he’s averaged over 6 yards per carry and has a 250+ yard rushing day under his belt. As expected, Michael Pittman is Matt Ryan’s favorite new target and he should have a field day against whoever decides to lineup against him.
Trevor Lawrence continues to struggle despite the new additions on offense. Until I see him perform on a consistent basis, I think the Jaguars remain an excellent fade candidate when getting under a touchdown. Lawrence ranked 30th in on target throw % in 2021, and he certainly didn’t do anything in week 1 to make that feel less likely in 2022 as he was graded with 9 more bad throws. I think the Colts defense will play much better this week. In 2021, this unit led the NFL in turnovers forced at 1.9/game, while Jacksonville gave the ball away at the 2nd worst rate at 1.7 times per game. I think these stats play out this weekend, and the Colts should avenge the bad loss that they had to eliminate them from playoff contention.
Random Thoughts:
- I expect to see the bad teams come back to Earth this week. Notably, Seattle and Chicago. I think Seattle was playing its 2022 version of the Super Bowl, in Russell Wilson’s highly anticipated return. We should see Geno Smith return to form playing behind a bad offensive line against a devastating defensive front. Chicago faces a Green Bay team that has thrashed them over the years, and they will not have the benefit of playing in a monsoon.
- It’s almost unreal how bad Tom Brady has played against the Saints during his Tampa tenure. If the Saints were at +3.5, I’d give it a thought as the Bucs interior offensive line is an absolute mess. I’m not sure I’d consider fading Brady at -2.5.
- Denver is a huge favorite in its home opener against the Texans. I’m interested to see how they rebound after one of the worst coaching debuts in recent memory. They should have the talent to roll Houston, but bad losses like that can occasionally linger.
- If you have access to Draftkings Sportsbook I highly recommend taking the highest point total of Sunday on Arizona/Las Vegas (under Weekly Specials section). This is currently sitting at +400. There aren’t many other games that have the potential to be the shootout that we should see in Vegas. I think you have two very good offenses against two very suspect defenses.
- I don’t have a play for tomorrow night, but I’m starting to lean towards the Chargers. They have had KC’s number a few times over the past couple seasons, and 4.5 points is a lot for a Justin Herbert led offense.
Good luck everyone!
