“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Las Vegas |
Tennessee |
(4.24) |
2.00 |
6.24 |
Tennessee |
|
Cincinnati |
NY Jets |
11.02 |
5.00 |
6.02 |
Cincinnati |
|
Houston |
Chicago |
2.35 |
(3.00) |
5.35 |
Houston |
|
Jacksonville |
LA Chargers |
(11.23) |
(7.00) |
4.23 |
LA Chargers |
|
Dallas |
NY Giants |
2.75 |
(1.00) |
3.75 |
Dallas |
|
Green Bay |
Tampa Bay |
(4.68) |
(1.50) |
3.18 |
Tampa Bay |
|
Philadelphia |
Washington |
9.67 |
6.50 |
3.17 |
Philadelphia |
|
LA Rams |
Arizona |
6.39 |
3.50 |
2.89 |
LA Rams |
|
San Francisco |
Denver |
3.88 |
1.50 |
2.38 |
San Francisco |
|
Kansas City |
Indianapolis |
4.76 |
6.00 |
1.24 |
Indianapolis |
|
Pittsburgh |
Cleveland |
(5.63) |
(4.50) |
1.13 |
Cleveland |
|
New Orleans |
Carolina |
2.09 |
3.00 |
0.91 |
Carolina |
|
Baltimore |
New England |
1.75 |
2.50 |
0.75 |
New England |
|
Detroit |
Minnesota |
(6.72) |
(6.00) |
0.72 |
Minnesota |
|
Buffalo |
Miami |
5.56 |
6.00 |
0.44 |
Miami |
|
Atlanta |
Seattle |
(2.16) |
(2.00) |
0.16 |
Seattle |
**The Money Zone is 8-6 (57.14%) in 2022**
Money Zone picks are Houston, LA Chargers, Dallas, Tampa, Philadelphia, LA Rams, & San Francisco
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 4-4 (50.00% for 2022)**
LA Rams -3.5 @ Arizona: I will continue to play the Rams in this divisional matchup until they prove me otherwise. Kyler Murray against the Aaron Donald led defensive line has been a failure. In his 7 career matchups with the Rams, he is 1-6 (including last year’s playoff loss). His production has been cringeworthy:
|
Year |
QB Rating |
Sacked |
Result |
Yards / Attempt |
|
2019 |
56.40 |
6.00 |
L 7-34 |
4.79 |
|
2019 |
81.90 |
1.00 |
L 24-31 |
7.74 |
|
2020 |
80.40 |
2.00 |
L 28-38 |
4.44 |
|
2020 |
95.60 |
2.00 |
L 7-18 |
7.90 |
|
2021 |
120.30 |
3.00 |
W 37-20 |
8.38 |
|
2021 |
72.10 |
4.00 |
L 23-30 |
7.82 |
|
2021 Playoff |
40.90 |
2.00 |
L 11-34 |
4.03 |
He’s had 5 games with a QB rating below 82, and 3 games with an average yards per attempt below 5. Those numbers for a player of his caliber are impressively bad. I think the key has been that the Arizona offensive line has been brutalized by Aaron Donald & Co. I have no reason to believe that they will fare any better given how much they’ve already struggled to block in 2022. In the season opener, Murray faced pressure on over 60% of his drop backs. The Chiefs pass rush is not close to the level of the Rams defense. With James Conner’s status up in the air, I think there could be even more issues in pass protection.
The Cardinals defense has been just as bad vs. the Rams. In the last 7 games, they’ve allowed an average of over 29 points per game. The game where they held the Rams to 18 points was started by John Wolford. I think the case can certainly be made that the Cardinals defense is significantly worse this season. They’ve tallied just 1 sack in two games and they have the worst passer rating defense in the NFL at 123.50. Sean McVay and Matt Stafford should have no problems exploiting matchups on the ground or through the air.
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay -1.5: I’m leaning on Tampa Bay this week in a matchup between two offenses that are struggling to get rolling. Both teams will likely have problems moving the ball in the passing game with their limitations at receiver. However, I expect Tampa to maintain a significant advantage running the ball and controlling the tempo. With the suspension of Mike Evans and the status of Julio Jones/Chris Godwin in jeopardy, this should be a Leonard Fournette game. Green Bay has strong cover corners, but I don’t think this is very helpful with the Bucs so shorthanded at receiver. We saw it last week against Chicago as a limited offense was able to produce 180 yards on the ground. Look for Tampa to run behind their dependable blockers on the right side in Tristen Wirfs and Shaq Mason.
On the other hand, I don’t think the Packers will have the same luxury in the running game. Few teams are able to completely eliminate running backs like the Buccaneers. With Vita Vea in the middle, Tampa Bay has been the most dominant defense in the NFL against the rush over the past several years. In addition, Tampa Bay’s front seven has been phenomenal at getting to the quarterback over the first few games. Here are some impressive stats that the Bucs have produced over the first two games:
|
Sack % |
Points Allowed |
Passer Rating Defense |
Takeaways |
|
10.87% (3rd) |
6.50 (1st) |
54.60 (2nd) |
3.0 (3rd) |
Look for the Bucs to play a lot of man coverage on the outside against the Packers lower level receivers. Todd Bowles can really amp up the blitz pressure with the confidence that he has on the outside for his corners to be left on an island. Outside of Aaron Jones, I don’t think the Packers have anyone that scares the defense. I think without Devante Adams, the Packers offense is a poor matchup with the Tampa Bay defense.
The last time Rodgers came to Tampa (in 2020) he played one of the worst games of his career. He was sacked 4 times, he threw 2 interceptions (including a pick 6), and he only completed 45% of his passes. This defense has the personnel to make his life very difficult again on Sunday.
San Francisco -1.5 @ Denver: I think the 49ers received a jolt of life with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Garoppolo, who is clearly well-liked in the locker room brought the offense back up to speed once he entered the game last Sunday. While Lance likely has higher upside in the future, Jimmy G is probably the more polished option in the short term.
Last season, Denver struggled against some of the better rushing offenses in the NFL. Two notable examples are the games vs. the Eagles and Browns. Both teams have a similar profile to the 49ers in that they are high volume run teams with physical and talented offensive lines.
|
Opponent |
Rushing Yards |
Yards Allowed per Carry |
Result |
|
Eagles |
216.00 |
5.54 |
L 13-30 |
|
Browns |
182.00 |
5.52 |
L 14-17 |
San Francisco has run the ball more than any team so far in the NFL at 41 times per game, and they have typically ranked top 5 in that category during the Kyle Shanahan era. Expect to see a lot of Jeff Wilson and Deebo Samuel. When they decide to throw the ball, Denver will likely be without its best two players in the secondary with Patrick Surtain listed as day to day and Justin Simmons on IR.
The Russell Wilson era has gotten off to a very slow start. I think the team feels very uneasy about new coach Nathaniel Hackett. His questionable decisions down the stretch cost them the opening game, and they nearly blew a 2nd game in a row against an inferior Texans team. Wilson has not yet gelled with the new offense and he could be without one of his best receivers as Jerry Jeudy remains banged up. It will not help to face off against one of the best pass rushes in the NFL led by Nick Bosa. San Francisco also holds the best rushing defense in the NFL right now.
Detroit +6 @ Minnesota: I think this a tough spot for Minnesota as they face a divisional opponent as a significant favorite on a short week after Monday Night Football. Detroit’s offense has come out of the gate extremely hot. Amon-Ra St. Brown has continued his torrid pace from his finish last season, and Deandre Swift has looked like one of the most dynamic running backs in football. Minnesota has generally been the team with a strong offensive line paired with an elite running back, but it now looks like Detroit has the advantage in both those categories. The Lions lead the NFL in yards per carry at 7.2, and as I pointed out last week, Minnesota has struggled mightily against the run since last year. One of my staples as a bettor has been to back effective running teams when they are significant underdogs. I think this week falls into that situation.
There are also some interesting trends that point to Detroit this week. Minnesota has not performed well as a home favorite over the past few seasons. In fact, they are just 4-8 ATS since 2020 when they are expected to win by the books. The Vikings have also struggled in short rest situations. Again, they are 1-4 ATS, and have lost vs. the spread by an average of 7 points per contest. Detroit, on the other hand, has been an excellent play when they have a rest advantage. They have gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 chances and have beat the spread by an average of 8 points. I generally don’t put too much stock into trends, but this week I’m taking the cheese.
One worry I have is Kirk Cousins’ track record against the Lions. He’s had some huge games, and he could certainly put up a lot of points again on Sunday. However, I think the defense has been more aggressive this season. The Lions have blitzed at a 41.7% rate (4th highest), and they’ve generated 26% pressure which ranks 13th. Compared to last season, they blitzed 27% of the time (9th) and generated just 20% pressure which was 29th in the NFL. I think the addition of Aiden Hutchinson has made a noticeable difference, and last week Cousins had a ton of problems with the blitz. For this reason, I think the Lions have a better chance of keeping the game close enough to seal the cover.
Random Thoughts:
- The Texans continue to cover the spread and play close games. I think they are in a favorable spot in the Money Zone as a FG dog against a young Bears team.
- The Eagles offense has been impressive as Hell… However, I think they are in a tough position as a TD+ favorite against a divisional opponent that has given them problems in the past. Not my favorite Money Zone game this week….
- I’m happy to fade the Giants as a favorite. I think this team is built to disappoint.
- The Bengals have been a disaster out of the gate. Until the offensive line sorts itself out, I can’t back them with any confidence.
- Buffalo is a powerhouse. Certainly, they are the unquestioned best team in the NFL at the moment. Josh Allen has had great games against the Miami defense in his career. I anticipate another big game coming this weekend.
- Indy has had KC’s number several times in the past. Despite how bad Indy is playing, I’d be careful if you are betting the Chiefs this weekend.
- Tennessee really let me down last week. I had a feeling they would take a step back this season, but I didn’t think it would be this far back so early in the season. I’m not sure who to back with Vegas coming off a disastrous, emotional loss to the Cardinals.
- Nothing says Thursday Night Football like Mitch Trubisky vs. Jacoby Brissett. Expect a game as ugly as the quarterback matchup.
Good luck everyone!
