“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Washington |
Dallas |
(10.60) |
(3.50) |
7.10 |
Dallas |
|
LA Chargers |
Houston |
(0.93) |
5.50 |
6.43 |
Houston |
|
NY Jets |
Pittsburgh |
(9.34) |
(3.00) |
6.34 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Jacksonville |
Philadelphia |
(12.21) |
(6.50) |
5.71 |
Philadelphia |
|
Arizona |
Carolina |
1.17 |
(2.00) |
3.17 |
Arizona |
|
Cleveland |
Atlanta |
4.08 |
1.00 |
3.08 |
Cleveland |
|
Seattle |
Detroit |
(1.49) |
(4.50) |
3.01 |
Seattle |
|
Buffalo |
Baltimore |
0.55 |
3.00 |
2.45 |
Baltimore |
|
Kansas City |
Tampa Bay |
3.36 |
1.00 |
2.36 |
Kansas City |
|
LA Rams |
San Francisco |
0.12 |
(2.00) |
2.12 |
LA Rams |
|
Chicago |
NY Giants |
(4.79) |
(3.00) |
1.79 |
NY Giants |
|
Minnesota |
New Orleans |
1.95 |
3.00 |
1.05 |
New Orleans |
|
Miami |
Cincinnati |
(5.02) |
(4.00) |
1.02 |
Cincinnati |
|
New England |
Green Bay |
(8.88) |
(9.50) |
0.62 |
New England |
|
Tennessee |
Indianapolis |
(2.51) |
(3.00) |
0.49 |
Tennessee |
|
Denver |
Las Vegas |
(2.44) |
(2.50) |
0.06 |
Denver |
**The Money Zone is 11-9 ATS (55.00%) in 2022**
Money Zone picks are Philadelphia, Arizona, Cleveland, Seattle, Baltimore, Kansas City, & LA Rams
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 6-6 ATS (50.00% for 2022)**
Seattle +4.5 @ Detroit: In a matchup between two of the lower tier teams in the NFC, I am leaning on the Seahawks. The Lions offense has been explosive out of the gate and has caught a lot of teams off guard. However, I think this week they will face challenges with two of their best offensive players injured. Amon-Ra St. Brown will most likely play, but I expect him to be slowed by his ankle injury that he sustained last week. He has been one of the most reliable, consistent receivers in the NFL since the 2nd half of last season, and if he is slowed in anyway that is a huge impediment for the offense. Deandre Swift, their dynamic running back is doubtful to suit up with his lingering shoulder problem. Without Swift, the Lions will be forced to use Jamaal Williams more than his typical workload. I think Williams is a lot easier to slow down than Swift, and he is not nearly as explosive in the passing game. Seattle has shown that they can stop between the tackle running backs as they yielded one of the lowest yards allowed per carry in the NFL in 2021 at 3.8 (2nd ranked).
The Seahawks should be able to have a huge day offensively. The Detroit defense continues to struggle. They are allowing 31 points per game (last in the NFL) and are vulnerable to the ground attack as they allow 5.0 yards per carry (27th). I think this opens up the potential for a huge game for Rashaad Penny. Penny has been quiet so far this season, but he closed 2021 with some monster rushing performances including a 25 carry 170 yard game in a 51-29 beat down of these very Lions.
Despite the blemishes on Geno Smith’s career resume, he has opened the season with some impressive performances. He has been remarkably accurate enroute to a league leading 76.70% completion percentage. I think he should be able to find DK Metcalf early and often. Metcalf destroyed this Lions defense in last season’s matchup to the tune of 3 TD catches.
Another area where Seattle should maintain a significant advantage is in the red zone. Seattle’s defense has shown that they can play “bend but don’t break” defense with a high efficiency level. Look at the chart below to compare the two defenses in the red zone:
|
Team |
2022 |
2021 |
|
Seattle |
38.46% (4th) |
50.82% (3rd) |
|
Detroit |
90.91% (32nd) |
70.00% (31st) |
Both teams have remained consistent with their performances from 2021, and this certainly looks like a favorable area for Seattle and how they have been able to tighten up closer to the end zone.
This line opened up as Detroit -6…. I was caught off guard as the Lions have been home favorites just 2 other times in the last 3 seasons. I think this is an unfamiliar position for them to be in, and I think Seattle has the profile to keep this game close.
Arizona +2 @ Carolina: I believe Carolina is another team that is caught in an unfamiliar position as home favorites against the Cardinals. The Cardinals’ defense has been fairly characterized as lousy to start the season. But in fairness to Arizona, this defense has been tested by 3 of the better offensive units in the NFL (Kansas City, Las Vegas, & LA Rams). I think this week, they get a much easier matchup against a Panthers offense that has struggled to get anything going with Baker Mayfield. The Panthers offensive line has been a major problem as they’ve given up sacks on 10% of pass attempts which ranks them 28th in the league. This is an extension of the same problem from last year as they sat at just 25th a season ago. The Cardinals pass rush has certainly struggled, but I think this week they should have a chance to garner some momentum against a weaker offensive line.
Carolina’s defensive numbers have been solid through 3 games, but again, I think it is more of a product of the schedule they have faced versus the talent they have. Through 3 weeks, the Panthers have faced Jacoby Brissett, Daniel Jones, and Jameis Winston. I think facing Kyler Murray is a far more challenging test, and I think his quickness could catch them off guard. Murray has yet to have one of his signature explosive games, but I think he is starting to find a rapport with Marquis Brown. I think Brown should also be in line for a big day as the Panthers have a lot of youth in the secondary.
Carolina has been awful as a favorite in the Matt Rhule era going just 3-10 (23.10%) ATS since 2020 including a 1-7 record at home in these situations. I think they are also in a potential let down spot coming off a blowout victory over the Saints. Last season, they started off similarly with an exciting win over New Orleans only to lose 4 out of the next 5 games. I’m taking my chances on Kyler Murray to straighten things out against an inferior team.
LA Rams +2.5 @ San Francisco: I can’t overstate the importance of Trent Williams to the 49ers offense. When Williams is in the lineup, this running game is devastating to opponents. Kyle Shanahan has no problem pounding the ball all day to his running backs behind Williams. With Williams out of the lineup for Monday Night, I think San Francisco is faced with a daunting task against the Rams’ powerful defensive line. The change in the 49ers’ offense was noticeable once the league’s best offensive tackle was forced to leave with injury. His absence takes away a lot of the offenses’ creativity, and leaves Jimmy Garoppolo vulnerable and shaky.
The 49ers have owned this rivalry as of late, but I think that was primarily the result of their dominance in the run game. Again, without Williams (and Elijah Mitchell), I think it is highly unlikely that they can win by running. Look at the pattern that they’ve followed in their previous victories, and then look at how that came to an end when they lost to the Rams in the conference finals:
|
Scenario |
Rushing Yards |
Attempts |
Yards / Att |
Result |
|
2022 Wk 10 |
156.00 |
44.00 |
3.55 |
W 31-10 |
|
2022 Wk 18 |
135.00 |
31.00 |
4.35 |
W 27-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2022 NFC Champ |
50.00 |
20.00 |
2.50 |
L 17-20 |
I think the 49ers will be in a position where they have to rely on Jimmy Garoppolo to carry them to a victory. I don’t think he can be trusted to do that against a quality defense like the Rams.
The 49ers defense has been excellent. But they are also starting to see injuries pile up. Arik Armstead has been out of the lineup and young linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is expected to be out. Cooper Kupp lit up this defense on 3 occasions last year, and I still don’t think they have the answer to slow him down. He averaged over 9 catches, 127 yards, and 1 touchdown in the 3 games that he played San Fran in 2021. I think Sean Mcvay and Matthew Stafford will continue to find ways to get him the ball in space on Monday.
Kansas City -1 @ Tampa Bay: I think the Chiefs will avenge their Super Bowl loss from a couple years back in the Sunday Night showdown with Tampa this weekend. I think there are a number of key differences between the rosters of this year vs. the last time these teams squared off:
- This Kansas City offensive line is light years better than the one that they faced vs. Tampa in the Super Bowl. In 2020, that unit was patchwork due to the accumulated injuries of the season. There are now all-pro caliber players at tackle, guard, and center. Patrick Mahomes was under siege all night in the Super Bowl loss. He should have plenty of time to dissect the Tampa secondary this week.
- The Kansas City defense has been much improved to start 2022. George Karlaftis and Carlos Dunlap have been excellent additions to the defensive line. They are also getting superior linebacker play and are holding teams to 3.6 yards per carry. Stopping the run has been an Achilles heel for Kansas City since the day Mahomes took over.
- Tampa’s offense remains sluggish. It’s possible the Bucs could get Godwin and Julio Jones back, but this offense lacks explosive players. I think age is starting to add up on the skill position players rather than their 45 year old quarterback. The Bucs rank 27th in yards per play and 22nd in points. The offensive line remains banged up, and I think they could have a tough time moving the ball in this game.
The last factor in this game is the impact of the hurricane. I think it’s an unfortunate situation, but a major distraction for the players that reside in Tampa Bay. This game has been moved to Minnesota, and I think it certainly will favor Kansas City. I think there’s a strong likelihood it will sound like a Chiefs home game, and the Bucs will have a lot to think about throughout the week besides the game.
Random Thoughts:
- Circle the Ravens at +3.5 in the Money Zone. Baltimore has been a sensational home underdog, and I’d expect another solid performance against Buffalo.
- Philadelphia continues to impress on a weekly basis. They should be in a favorable spot against a Jacksonville team coming off an unexpected blowout victory over the Chargers.
- I’d also feel good about Cleveland as a narrow favorite with extra rest against a low-level Falcons team. Browns should have a major advantage over the Atlanta offensive line.
- Key injuries have really shaken up the Chargers. However, I think the Texans could be due for a let down against a superior team.
- The Patriots season looks to be on the brink with Mac Jones going down. But I think 10 points might be a little too high for a Packers team that has struggled to score.
- Interesting game for the suddenly hot Dolphins tomorrow night. I think it’s a tough game for them given how hard they had to play to hold on against the Bills and with Tua injured
- Denver/Vegas is a coinflip to me. But I think I’d lean Vegas with McDaniels’ season potentially on the line.
- The Titans have owned this AFC South rivalry… I think the Colts at over a FG is too much.
Good luck everyone!
