“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Houston |
Jacksonville |
(0.07) |
(7.00) |
6.93 |
Houston |
|
Dallas |
LA Rams |
(0.72) |
(5.50) |
4.78 |
Dallas |
|
LA Chargers |
Cleveland |
(1.24) |
3.00 |
4.24 |
Cleveland |
|
Atlanta |
Tampa Bay |
(12.81) |
(9.00) |
3.81 |
Tampa Bay |
|
Philadelphia |
Arizona |
8.74 |
5.50 |
3.24 |
Philadelphia |
|
Indianapolis |
Denver |
(1.06) |
(3.50) |
2.44 |
Indianapolis |
|
Seattle |
New Orleans |
(7.73) |
(5.50) |
2.23 |
New Orleans |
|
Pittsburgh |
Buffalo |
(15.80) |
(14.00) |
1.80 |
Buffalo |
|
Miami |
NY Jets |
4.77 |
3.00 |
1.77 |
Miami |
|
Las Vegas |
Kansas City |
(8.74) |
(7.00) |
1.74 |
Kansas City |
|
Chicago |
Minnesota |
(8.51) |
(7.00) |
1.51 |
Minnesota |
|
Cincinnati |
Baltimore |
(1.54) |
(3.00) |
1.46 |
Cincinnati |
|
Tennessee |
Washington |
3.63 |
2.50 |
1.13 |
Tennessee |
|
Detroit |
New England |
(3.97) |
(3.00) |
0.97 |
New England |
|
NY Giants |
Green Bay |
(8.95) |
(8.00) |
0.95 |
Green Bay |
|
San Francisco |
Carolina |
6.32 |
6.50 |
0.18 |
Carolina |
**The Money Zone is 15-11 ATS (57.69%) in 2022**
Money Zone picks are Dallas, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Indy & New Orleans
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 9-7 ATS (56.25% for 2022)**
Dallas +5.5 @ LA Rams: I think this is a solid spot for a Cowboys team that has suddenly gotten hot. They are getting great play from their extremely talented defensive front, and they face a Rams offensive line that has struggled to keep Matthew Stafford upright. The Rams offense has become far too reliant on Cooper Kupp. Outside of Kupp, there are no receivers getting any type of separation. Allen Robinson has been a major disappointment as he has struggled to garner any momentum in the early going of this season. Aside from some occasional plays from Tyler Higbee, the Rams offense is entirely on the shoulders of a double and triple teamed Cooper Kupp. The numbers are starting to bear out these glaring deficiencies in the Rams offense.
|
Avg. Depth of Target Passing |
Avg. Pocket Time |
Sack % |
|
6.30 (31st) |
2.30 seconds (26th) |
9.64% (30th) |
This offense is too predictable, and they have gotten virtually nothing from their running game. The risk-taking, aggressive Cowboys defense is probably the last unit that you want to see when your offense is having this much trouble moving the ball. Expect Trevon Diggs to try to jump one of these short throws for an interception. Micah Parsons should again take advantage of mis-matches all over this weaker offensive line.
Offensively, Cooper Rush has done a solid job as a game manager. The Rams front hasn’t been nearly as productive as you would expect. Shockingly, the Rams rank 32nd in pressure %. I wouldn’t have thought that would be possible with an Aaron Donald led defense. Look for the Cowboys to rely on the running game in a tough road environment while mixing in occasional shots to Cee Dee Lamb. I think a low scoring, defensive game script gives the Cowboys significant value at +5.5.
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay -9: I’m looking for the Bucs to get back on track this week as they should suit up a healthy wide receiving corps for a 2nd straight week. Since Brady has joined Tampa Bay, he has absolutely pummeled the Falcons defense:
|
Year |
QB Rating |
Yards / Att |
Result |
|
2021 |
110.40 |
8.67 |
W 31-27 |
|
2021 |
117.80 |
9.73 |
W 44-27 |
|
2020 |
129.20 |
7.67 |
W 48-25 |
|
2020 |
112.20 |
7.22 |
W 30-17 |
The Bucs have averaged over 38 points per game and have only played 1 close game in the 4 wins over the Falcons during this time. The Falcons have shown some glimpses of improvement defensively in the early part of 2022, but I’m hesitant to draw any significant conclusions as they have faced the offensively challenged Saints, Seahawks, & Browns in 3 of the 4 matchups. They have improved the outside corners of the secondary, but there have been egregious weaknesses when covering slot receivers. Jarvis Landry, Tyler Lockett, and Cooper Kupp all had big days against the Falcons on the inside.
|
Opponent |
Player |
Catches |
Yards |
|
Saints |
Jarvis Landry |
7.00 |
114.00 |
|
Seahawks |
Tyler Lockett |
9.00 |
76.00 |
|
Rams |
Cooper Kupp |
11.00 |
108.00 |
Tom Brady, of course, is no stranger to fully utilizing mismatches. In the last meeting with the Falcons, Chris Godwin had an amazing 15 catches on 17 targets for over 140 yards. This is clearly an area that teams are targeting against Atlanta, and I’d expect Brady and the Bucs to continue that trend.
The Atlanta offensive line faces a tough test against a great Tampa front 7. I’d expect to see a much better performance from the Bucs D after they were embarrassed by the Chiefs on a national stage. Atlanta’s offensive line had the benefit of playing the Browns without Clowney and Garrett. This week should be a much tougher test and they will have to handle it without Cordarrelle Patterson, one of their best playmakers. Mariota is typically at his best when keeping his pass attempts low with an efficient running game. I think he’s at a disadvantage this week, as Tampa has consistently had a defense that forces you to throw in high volumes. Currently, opponents are throwing 38.5 times per game against Tampa which is the 5th most in the NFL.
Look for the Bucs to get back on track this week, and regain a choke hold on the NFC South.
LA Chargers @ Cleveland +3: I’m fading the Chargers this week in a tough matchup against a power running team. Solid running teams have given the Chargers fits going back to last year. LA made an effort to address their run defense with new personnel additions, but that investment has not paid off yet. At 5.4 yards allowed per carry, the Chargers rank 31st in the NFL. The loss of Joey Bosa on the edge will not help that cause either. The Cleveland Browns are the last team that you want to see when you are struggling against the run. Nick Chubb and the offensive line have been a well-oiled machine running for 5 yards per carry, and running the 2nd most attempts per game in the NFL.
I look back to 2021, when LA was in a similar spot as a road opponent against Baltimore. The Ravens destroyed the Chargers on the ground running for 187 yards and 3 TD’s on its way to a 34-6 win. I think there are a few huge injuries that will impact this weekend’s game. LA is expected to be without Keenan Allen, and have already lost Joey Bosa and their best offensive lineman, Rashawn Slater. Not to mention that Justin Herbert is still clearly not playing at 100%. On the other hand, Cleveland is expecting to get back its best two pass rushers in Clowney and Myles Garrett. Cleveland’s defense has been disappointing to start the season, but I think they have too much talent at multiple levels to continue the struggle. I think they’ll turn it around against a banged-up Chargers offense and lean on the running game to pull out a win.
Philadelphia -5.5 @ Arizona: I’ll continue to lean on the Eagles as they remain the hottest team in the NFL. As I pointed out last week, Arizona had a great opportunity to expose a low-level Panthers team. This week, they face a team that presents significant challenges on both sides of the ball.
Philly’s defense has really amped up the pressure. Their pass rush is getting to opposing QB’s, and their elite corners are making big time plays and causing turnovers.
|
Opponent Yards / Pass Att |
Passer Rating Def |
Sack % |
Turnovers Forced |
|
4.80 (1st) |
69.20 (2nd) |
9.70% (3rd) |
2.50 (1st) |
This Cardinals offense faces a true test. Kyler Murray hasn’t had much time to throw this year, which has taken away the explosive plays from this offense. The Cardinals are 28th in yards per play and are one of the worst 3rd down offenses in the NFL at 31.03% (29th).
Philadelphia’s offense was slowed slightly by the weather of last week’s game. But they were able to come through with a victory by leaning on Miles Sanders and their running game. This week, they should be able to move the ball much better in the passing game in ideal dome conditions. Arizona ranks 27th in yards per pass attempt, and they’ve allowed a 103.9 passer rating to opposing QB’s. These defensive problems are an extension of how they finished last season, and I think it has arguably gotten worse. Philadelphia is certainly the superior team and Arizona hasn’t showed a lot of toughness when they are outclassed in recent history.
Random Thoughts:
- Trap bet alert #1: I think you’ll see a lot of the betting public backing the Seahawks off their 48 point performance vs. the Lions. Look for them to come back to Earth as they are significant underdogs against a 1-3 Saints team. New Orleans likely has their season on the line and should win handily.
- Trap bet alert #2: I think Miami is certainly another team that will receive significant public support at just -3 over the Jets….. I don’t have the confidence to back New York, but I think this is a dangerous game to lay the points on Miami.
- I think Indy is a solid bet, if you’re able to secure +3.5. I still have a lot of questions about the Denver offense, and power running teams have generally played well against the Broncos defense. Indy has had problems on the ground so far, but I think it’s only a matter of time before they ramp things up.
- Last year, I was brave enough to call the Steelers upset at Buffalo…. Not making that call this year……
- Interesting game with the Lions visiting the Patriots. A 1-4 start would likely bury the Patriots in the AFC. I think they may run the ball 50 times against this poor Lions front. Also, Bill Belichick has exposed Jared Goff in the past. Look for him to bring back some of his old “cover 0” blitz looks.
- I’d call you crazy if at any point last year you told me the Jaguars would be a 7 point favorite….. but I think it’s probably deserved this week against a Texans defense that can’t stop a nose bleed.
Good luck everyone!
