“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Minnesota |
Miami |
(2.21) |
3.50 |
5.71 |
Miami |
|
Buffalo |
Kansas City |
(0.32) |
2.50 |
2.82 |
Kansas City |
|
Cincinnati |
New Orleans |
4.75 |
2.00 |
2.75 |
Cincinnati |
|
NY Jets |
Green Bay |
(9.72) |
(7.00) |
2.72 |
Green Bay |
|
Denver |
LA Chargers |
(2.49) |
(5.00) |
2.51 |
Denver |
|
New England |
Cleveland |
(4.66) |
(2.50) |
2.16 |
Cleveland |
|
Washington |
Chicago |
(0.85) |
1.00 |
1.85 |
Chicago |
|
Arizona |
Seattle |
(4.33) |
(2.50) |
1.83 |
Seattle |
|
San Francisco |
Atlanta |
7.33 |
5.50 |
1.83 |
San Francisco |
|
Carolina |
LA Rams |
(9.04) |
(10.50) |
1.46 |
Carolina |
|
Baltimore |
NY Giants |
6.85 |
5.50 |
1.35 |
Baltimore |
|
Tampa Bay |
Pittsburgh |
6.74 |
8.00 |
1.26 |
Pittsburgh |
|
Dallas |
Philadelphia |
(6.95) |
(6.00) |
0.95 |
Philadelphia |
|
Jacksonville |
Indianapolis |
(2.00) |
(2.00) |
0.00 |
Jacksonville |
**The Money Zone is 19-13 ATS (59.38%) in 2022**
Money Zone picks are Miami, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Denver, & Cleveland
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 11-9 ATS (55.00% for 2022)**
NY Jets @ Green Bay -7: The Packers are probably my favorite pick on the board of week 6. I think they are in an excellent spot with the Jets coming off an emotional, blow-out victory that was highly unexpected. In the NFL, this very rarely carries through to the next week, especially with a team that has virtually no track record of winning over the past decade. Green Bay, on the other hand, is coming off a disappointing loss to the Giants, and Aaron Rodgers has been phenomenal in bounce back games for the last few seasons. Since 2019, the Packers are 10-1 ATS after a loss and they have covered games by an astounding 8+ points per game in these situations. This track record shows to me that they are more likely to play with an edge, rather than getting down on themselves.
I’m looking for Green Bay to win with their defense and run game on Sunday. They have talent on the defensive side of the ball with All-Pro caliber players on every level of the unit. So far in 2022, the Packers have allowed a QB rating of over 100 points on defense which ranks 24th in the NFL. This is unacceptable given the talent level and track record that they have. They were 9th in this category in 2021, and I think they have a strong chance of a rebound game against a QB that has turned the ball over a ton in his young career. In Wilson’s 15 career games, he’s thrown 13 interceptions to just 10 touchdowns. Green Bay was 9th in the NFL in forced turnovers in 2021, while they rank just 26th in that category this season. Expect these numbers to regress towards their standard level averages.
It’s well documented that Aaron Rodgers has struggled to get on the same page with some of his younger receivers. I think it makes sense that they will continue to lean on AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones to make the offense work. I’d expect the Packers to control possession time in this game and eventually tire out the Jets defense with their two workhorse running backs.
I’d look to bet this at -7, as I expect -7.5 to be the likely line by kickoff.
Cincinnati -2 @ New Orleans: I think the Bengals passing offense will return to form this week. New Orleans has surprisingly struggled to generate a pass rush so far in 2022. The Saints rank just 28th in pressure %, and I think this has allowed teams to attack them more in the downfield passing game:
|
Avg. Depth of Target Allowed |
Yards / Completion Allowed |
Pressure % |
|
8.8 (26th) |
11.50 (24th) |
16.90% (28th) |
The numbers certainly allow for more time in the pocket, and I think this will be deadly when facing Joe Burrow. The Burrow/Chase connection has failed to deliver any explosive performances so far in 2022, but I think this is the week they come back to life. Burrow hasn’t had a ton of NFL experience in a dome environment, but in his brief time he is 2-0 with a 104 QB rating. Last time Burrow played in the Super Dome it was a night to remember as he led an offensive display of perfection in the college national title game. I think there’s a solid chance he can relive some of those fond memories.
The Saints are at their best when they can run the ball effectively. We certainly saw it last week as Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill had big games on the ground. I think they will struggle to get momentum going as Cincinnati’s defense is built to take away the run game. The Bengals are allowing just over 4 yards per carry which is good for 11th in the NFL. I think they held up reasonably well against the Ravens last week who have a far more dynamic running game than the Saints. Whether it’s Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston, I think the Bengals have the talent in the secondary to neutralize the Saints passing attack who could be without their top 2 receiving options in Chris Olave and Michael Thomas. We’ll see if either is able to suit up.
New England @ Cleveland -2.5: Whether it’s a hobbled Mac Jones or an inexperienced Bailey Zappe, I think Cleveland laying under a FG is the play to make. Zappe was able to play a pressure free, effortless game against the Lions last week. I think this was mainly due to the Lions tripping over their own feet. Detroit failed on countless 4th down opportunities and committed several critical, game-changing turnovers. New England was able to play the entire game from ahead and was content to just run the ball to control the game against a weak defense. I think it’s highly unlikely that this week’s game flow will play out in a similar way. Cleveland has shown that they are far too efficient with their physical offensive line and their dynamic running backs. I think both teams will have a similar offensive game plan, but I think the Browns are more likely to succeed with it.
New England has also been exposed multiple times over the past few seasons by strong running teams. Last season, the Colts man-handled the Patriots defense and ran for 226 yards in a 10 point victory in a critical game down the stretch. This year, Baltimore ran for 188 yards in their 37 point, week 3 victory. The Patriots run defense has been a problem since 2020, and it doesn’t appear to be getting any better:
|
Season |
Patriots Yards Allowed / Rush |
|
2020 |
4.5 (20th) |
|
2021 |
4.6 (26th) |
|
2022 |
4.8 (23rd) |
If New England is forced to throw, I think there’s a strong chance they could see significant pressure on the quarterback with the return of Clowney and Garrett. Isaiah Wynn, at tackle for New England, has been a major liability and has gotten his quarterbacks crushed several times this year. I think the Patriots are more susceptible to a game-changing turnover than the Browns and that one play could decide the game. I see the line on this one making it up to -3, so I would again suggest betting it early at -2.5 if you have it available.
Denver +5 @ LA Chargers: I think there’s value anytime there’s a significant underdog with an excellent pass defense. Make no mistake, the Broncos have a phenomenal pass defense.
|
Yards Allowed / Pass Att |
Passer Rating Def. |
Sack % |
Points Allowed / Game |
|
5.20 (2nd) |
78.10 (9th) |
9.09% (4th) |
16.0 (4th) |
I especially like the combination of edge rushers paired with an elite corner. Bradley Chubb, Randy Gregory, and Baron Browning have been a problem for offensive lines across the league. Herbert should see a lot of pressure as the line continues to play without its best tackle in Rashawn Slater. I also think Patrick Surtain Jr. has the size and athleticism to limit opportunities from Mike Williams. The Broncos defense has played well against Herbert in the past as he had only 1 game with a QB rating of 100 or more, and his record is just 2-2.
Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense continue to be a major disappointment. Wilson has uncharacteristically made poor decisions, and I think he’s struggling to see the field right now. One thing that should work in his favor this week, is the Chargers inability to stop the run. LA was gashed by Cleveland last week, and they rank just 28th in the NFL in yards allowed per play. I think if the Broncos can get enough out of their run game, and maybe (just maybe!) they could land 1 or 2 deep balls they should be able to keep this one close enough to seal the cover.
Random Thoughts:
- Haven’t looked it up, but I’m assuming this is the first time Pat Mahomes has ever been a home underdog in his career. I’m backing the Chiefs.
- I can’t bring myself to pick another disgusting Thursday Night game in a matchup between two awful teams…. I’m quitting while I’m ahead.
- Leaning on Baltimore. I find it hard to believe that the Giants can keep winning with such inefficient quarterback play. However, former Ravens Def. Coordinator Wink Martindale (now def. coordinator of the Giants) should have some insight on how to defend Lamar Jackson.
- I like Philly to win the game Sunday night, but it’s hard for me to support -6 with the way Dallas’ defense is playing right now.
- Atlanta may be one of the most underwhelming teams in the NFL, yet they are undefeated against the spread. I think that finally comes to an end this week as they go up against the best defense in the NFL.
- If Miami starts Bridgewater or Tua, I think +3.5 is a very good number to bet. Obviously keep a close eye on the injury reports with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Xavien Howard, and Terron Armstead all banged up.
- 10.5 Feels like a lot of points for the struggling defending champs. But I just can’t get behind Carolina right now.
Good luck everyone!
