“The Money Zone”: Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone. Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 700 games. I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run. This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc. However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.
|
Away |
Home |
Calculated Spread |
Actual Spread |
Calculated vs Actual |
Projected Winner ATS |
|
Houston |
Las Vegas |
4.45 |
(7.00) |
11.45 |
Houston |
|
NY Jets |
Denver |
(7.14) |
(1.00) |
6.14 |
Denver |
|
Kansas City |
San Francisco |
(2.66) |
2.50 |
5.16 |
San Francisco |
|
Atlanta |
Cincinnati |
(10.36) |
(6.00) |
4.36 |
Cincinnati |
|
Seattle |
LA Chargers |
(2.53) |
(6.00) |
3.47 |
Seattle |
|
Cleveland |
Baltimore |
(8.75) |
(6.00) |
2.75 |
Baltimore |
|
Detroit |
Dallas |
(4.62) |
(7.00) |
2.38 |
Detroit |
|
NY Giants |
Jacksonville |
(5.33) |
(3.00) |
2.33 |
Jacksonville |
|
Indianapolis |
Tennessee |
(1.11) |
(2.50) |
1.39 |
Indianapolis |
|
Pittsburgh |
Miami |
(7.86) |
(7.00) |
0.86 |
Miami |
|
New Orleans |
Arizona |
(1.18) |
(2.00) |
0.83 |
New Orleans |
|
Tampa Bay |
Carolina |
10.61 |
11.00 |
0.39 |
Carolina |
|
Green Bay |
Washington |
4.71 |
5.00 |
0.29 |
Washington |
|
Chicago |
New England |
(7.95) |
(8.00) |
0.05 |
Chicago |
**The Money Zone is 21-17 ATS (55.26%) in 2022**
Money Zone picks are San Francisco, Cincinnati, Seattle, Baltimore, Detroit, & Jacksonville
“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week: Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on them. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow. Read below for my in-depth analysis. **Picks of the Week are 13-11 ATS (54.17% for 2022)**
NY Giants @ Jacksonville -3: The 2-4 Jaguars are surprising favorites over the 5-1 NY Giants. It might seem like a puzzling line initially, but when you dig into the numbers, I can certainly see why.
From an objective standpoint, the Jags have performed favorably to the Giants in several key areas:
|
Team |
Passer Rating Differential |
Point Differential |
Net Yards / Play |
|
Jaguars |
+9.1 (6th) |
+4.0 (6th) |
.4 (9th) |
|
Giants |
-1.60 (13th) |
+2.3 (12th) |
-.7 (27th) |
I think it’s rare to see a team go 5-1 with pedestrian statistical averages that you see above. The book-makers clearly expect to see some regression based on the line that they have chosen. You’ll likely see a rush of public bets come in on the Giants, but I think the sharp play is with Jacksonville.
One area where I think Jacksonville will have an advantage is running the ball offensively. As of right now, the Giants rank dead last in yards allowed per carry at 5.6. Look for Travis Etienne and James Robinson to have big days on the ground. Trevor Lawrence has also used his legs more often than we have seen previously over the last few weeks. He was able to rush for 2 TD’s against the Colts, and I think Doug Pederson would be wise to use his quarterback more in the red zone. Wink Martindale leads a defense that leads the league in blitz percentage. When this strategy is going well, it looks great, but if you don’t have the talent to support it in the secondary, it can lead to huge plays in the passing game. The Jaguars are 11th in the NFL in YAC / reception, and I think they should have some opportunities for some big plays after the catch.
Offensively, it’s no secret that the Giants love to run the ball with Saquan Barkley. However, the Jaguars run defense has been one of the league’s best so far, giving up just 3.6 yards / carry. I think if the Giants are to win this game, they will need to be more productive in the passing game. Daniel Jones has held onto the ball too long as he is sacked at 10.50% per drop back, which is 31st in the NFL. Jacksonville is also forcing 1.5 turnovers per game, which is good for 10th in the NFL. Jones has shown throughout his career that he is vulnerable to critical fumbles.
In a slate that I don’t like very much, this is the top play on my board.
Kansas City @ San Francisco +2.5: I think this is a brutal stretch for the Chiefs to face the 49ers fresh off an emotional loss to the Bills. I don’t think there’s any question that the 49ers are toughest defense in the NFL, and the numbers back it up:
|
Sack % |
Points Allowed |
Yards / Play Allowed |
Passer Rating Def |
|
11.06% (1st) |
14.80 (2nd) |
4.20 (1st) |
79.10 (7th) |
What’s even more impressive is that the 49ers generate the majority of their pressure without sending any additional rushers. They are one of the lowest blitzing teams in the league, yet they generate the most pressure. I think it’s hard not to like a team that is playing this well defensively as a home underdog. They have only been home underdogs 4 times since 2019, and they are 3-1 ATS in those situations.
I think Kansas City will have a tough time getting wide receivers open against this San Francisco defense. Travis Kelce continues to be phenomenal, but the Niners have some of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL. They should pay him extra attention, and be able to lock up on the outside. I think you’ll see San Francisco play back and keep extra men in coverage men in coverage and invite Mahomes to work the ball down the field using short passes. Defenses that have been disciplined enough with this approach have had the most success vs. Kansas City (Cincinnati in the AFC Championship).
Where I think San Francisco has a major advantage is with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. This tandem is undoubtedly the toughest in the NFL to tackle. I think the Chiefs’ blitz heavy defensive approach leaves its secondary vulnerable. I don’t think they have the corners that will be able to tackle Samuel one on one, and this could lead to some huge plays. The Chiefs have 39 missed tackles on the season, which ranks 29th in the NFL. They’ve also surrendered 822 yards after the catch (30th) in the NFL. Unsurprisingly, the 49ers average 7.3 YAC / completion which is the best in the league. I think you understand my point….. Expect some big plays from Deebo and Kittle in open space.
Atlanta @ Cincinnati -6: I think this week is a great time to fade Atlanta. In a 2nd game of a tough stretch facing San Francisco, and now Cincinnati, the Falcons are likely in a tough spot to play a 2nd consecutive road game. Atlanta caught the Niners sleeping last week, I don’t think they’ll be fortunate enough to do it twice in a row.
The Bengals have started to straighten out their offensive line issues. I think last week Joe Burrow had his best game of the season, and he did it in a tough environment in New Orleans. He was only pressured on 19% of his throws against a talented defensive line. I think the Bengals offensive line has finally had the time to gel together, and they should face an easier test against a meek Falcons unit. Atlanta is giving up 5.9 yards / play (26th in the NFL). Cincinnati should be able to move the ball however they choose to. Ja’Marr Chase had a signature breakout game last week, and this week I think you should see Tee Higgins return closer to form with another week off his ankle injury.
Despite a setback against the Saints last week, Cincinnati’s defense has been very reliable in the young season. They seem to have carried the momentum generated from their playoff run a year ago and have been one of the most consistent units in the NFL. With Marcus Mariota, the Falcons are a high volume running team. I don’t think this approach will work against the Bengals who have a stout front seven. The Bengals have also been a very good red zone defense allowing TD’s on just 35.29% of opportunities (3rd ranked).
I like Cincy at anything below -7.
Random Thoughts:
- I’m limiting the plays of the week to just 3 this week…. I’m not a huge fan of the number of large spreads on the board.
- If I were to choose my next favorite game, I would probably go with Seattle. They’ve been in just about every game, and I think they have the running game that could expose the Chargers. I’m just a little hesitant because I think Herbert will light up the Seahawk defense.
- I’m excited to see Tua get back on the field. I think he was really playing well before all the concussion drama started. Hopefully they can get back on track against the Steelers.
- Eagles on the bye this week….. 4 more wins to get over that 9.5! fingers crossed….
- Everyone in New England has Zappe fever…. I’m not falling for that trap. They will probably blow out the Bears this week, but I have no confidence in them against solid competition.
- Both Tampa Bay and Green Bay have had major struggles as of late…. If they can’t get on track against the Panthers and Commanders, then I think their problems are real.
- I’m stunned to see the Jets at 4-2 despite the inept quarterback play that they have gotten. Wilson vs. Wilson this week isn’t exactly Brady/Manning.
- I almost want to take a stab at Detroit getting 7 points against a rusty Dak Prescott… But I’ve seen Jared Goff crumble way too many times against pressure, and no one is generating as much pressure as the Cowboys right now.
Good luck everyone!
